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bozo macginty

bozo macginty
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  • After The Stress Test, Are Financials Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    The author has made the assumption that the recent Fed stress was rigorous. If the Fed had used the parameters used by the Canadian regulators, only one (Wells Fargo) of the major U.S. money center banks would've passed.
    Mar 26 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Upcoming Policy Likely To Benefit This Sector [View article]
    Obama's caving to the greenies on coal-fired plants, both new and existing is another negative factor for the utilities sector. All of the glitzy financial ratios in the world will not overcome the administration's desire to close down coal. See the recent comments from a senior administration official re: the desirability of ending coal as an energy source.
    Jun 25 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citibank's Deinternationalization [View article]
    Regional and local banks offshore have rapidly modernized and learned from the Citibanks of the world. Indeed, many of their senior managers were trained at the big international banks. In addition to competing effectively, these banks have the added advantage of comprehensive market coverage as well as national and ethnic pride on their side, particularly at the bottom end of retail markets. Their credit card and electronic banking products are at least the equal of the international banks.

    The Citibanks of this world will continue to have important international businesses, but they will skew more to corporate, trade and wealth management and less toward serving the local, small account holder. Citi is doing the right thing. The "priceless" franchise is not the branch network. Attempting to compete at the retail level has become an expensive relic of years gone by.
    Dec 6 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Fallout From The Welch Jobs Debate [View article]
    Some observations:

    1.The numbers are typically revised (usually in a negative way these days...) at some later date. It is a fair bet that the 7.8% will be revised upward sometime after the election.

    2. The results are derived from sampling, not from hard data. There need not be a massive conspiracy for the in-person interviewers (a small % of the sample) and the telephone interviewers to select on the basis of optimal potential outcomes and likelihood of better results... confirmational bias. How many interviewers venture into the bowels of some of out toughest inner cities?
    Oct 11 12:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Election Gambling With Superior Odds [View article]
    Brave and/or foolish...
    Oct 10 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Election Gambling With Superior Odds [View article]
    Your responses do not address the points made. You merely rely on sarcasm and distortion. Enjoy your gambling!
    Oct 10 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Election Gambling With Superior Odds [View article]
    Bozo MacGinty here responding to the author's reliance on diversification: Please note that current risk methodology ( not word games...) and recent history belie the notion that simply diversifying a portfolio reduces risk across the board. In 2008, the correlation among risk classes basically collapsed to 1, which means they all went in the tank together.

    Given that your recommendations are confined to equity classes, you have limited your own faith in diversification. Whether picking "longs" or "shorts" oday, you are making choices based on a highly conjectural premise. Yes, a static set of decisions based on a highly uncertain and fluid dynamic.

    I do applaud the title that you gave your article. "Gambling" is certainly the operative word!
    Oct 9 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Election Gambling With Superior Odds [View article]
    First and foremost, the entire thesis of this article rests on the opinion of one individual's view that Obama will surely win. If Mr. Silver, the pundit, is not Mr. Market, then everything that follows is GIGO. To bank on the words of politicians is a fool's game.

    Secondly, whether Obama wins or not, the article is based on a static analysis that is unlikely to hold in a second term. The article is oblivious to certain dynamics that occur in the real world of politics. The world is not steady-state. Life gets in the way and talk tends to go out the window when geopolitics, internal crises, even the weather intervene. As an example, when Bush II won, the smart money said that companies with close ties to Mexico would be money-makers. Then 9.11 happened. Mexico? where's Mexico?

    Thirdly, To say one thing and to do quite another when it is more convenient is the norm in politics. There is always the likelihood that a second term president is no longer beholden to the most radical elements of his base and becomes focused on his legacy. Bill Clinton is a case in point.

    It is unlikely that either candidate will have the control of the Senate and House that Obama enjoyed in his first two years. What has been accomplished since then?

    It is fine to play macro mind games, but do be careful when you are putting your own money down for such flimsy analysis, particularly when it involves betting on political outcomes!
    Oct 8 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sheila Bair Against The World [View article]
    Felix, are you showing your true colors? From the full payout to Goldman by Geitner of essentially worthless AIG paper to the bailout of Wall Street rather than Main Street, (apologies to Neil Barofsky...), Geitner has been a toadie and fully in the pocket of big finance. he was plart of the gang and part of the problem.

    Bair was marginalized and had every right to feel anger and frustration, particularly as she was essentially right. She wasn't persecuted, she was ignored. Yes, the OCC was worse than useless, andby the way nothing has materially changed. The Too big To Fails are bigger than ever and evidently there was no punishable wrong-doing at all during the entire cataclysm.

    Are you pleased with how it has all turned out to date? Are you titillated about the direction of the American economy?
    Sep 27 06:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management Uses Bond Capital Gains To Support Dividend [View article]
    Carman 5306: Fortunately I have not been personally effected but the recent upheavals (flash crash, Knight, etc.) are giving a many investors pause for concern re: trailing stops. Many were blown out in the short, intense volatility that quickly righted itself. The use of trailing stops is not necessarily the downside cover that it was in 2008. Be careful to not to be a general fighting the last war... The point is trading platform risk may carry greater very short and very intense downward volatility than in general market moves or negative news on individual positions.
    Aug 4 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Design A Bias-Free Dividend Strategy [View article]
    The author notes that fully half of the stocks on his list are in the financial sector and then provides a link on risk management that shows diversification as being very important. Well, what are we to make of that? As for the link to his website which just happens to have a subscription offer, caveat emptor!
    Jun 18 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senators MIA At JPMorgan 'Roast'? Regulation Is DOA [View article]
    It is the Banking Committee itself that should be grilled, (literally and figuratively). Aside from the demonstrable fact that they receive large donations directly from JPM and Dimon and indirectly through related industry organizations, the lack of familiarity with the most basic concepts of finance and banking is breath taking. Dimon answered their softball questions with blather and dissembling. Given the pathetic follow ups to his responses, it was clear that none of the members knew what he was talking about. Dimon could easily have sat there and said, "Obladi Oblada" and no one on the Committee would've pushed back.

    This begs the notion that regulations should be simple and based in common sense a la Glass-Steagall. We have simple legislators (and regulators), and they will never be able to keep up with the folks who make fortunes staying one step ahead.
    Jun 15 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modern Dividend Theory Explained Part 2: Risk And Diversification [View article]
    To jpg-mps:

    There is a significant risk that has been omitted from your list that is becoming better known to regulators and corporate risk managers. It is called "model risk" and refers to the validity/accuracy of the assumptions that drive internal risk models, the outright errors that occur in model creation/management and the "gaming" of the model by the users themselves. Unfortunately, there is not much that the individual investor can do about this other than to acknowledge that it exists and can be devastating in unconventional situations.

    It is not unheard of for companies to buy an off the shelf risk program, hire the person(s) who sold it to them (because they understand the minutia and they make it sound so comprehensive) and then "manage" them with a very light (often uninformed) touch. Most of these systems rely on historical data, are closed loop and subject to exception limit changes that are easily made. Marketing and Sales almost always trump Risk Management and so it goes...
    May 25 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modern Dividend Theory Explained Part 2: Risk And Diversification [View article]
    Volatility is not Risk and never was, but it made the formulas work, gave the risk managers something quantifiable to justify what their companies wanted to do anyway, and brought in the Nobel prizes. Talib and Mandelbrot do an effective job of skewering this myth which has become a religion in the financial world. As suggested in earlier comments, common sense is essential. One has only oneself to blame if reliance is placed upon quantitative measures of "risk".
    May 23 11:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reexamining The Volcker Rule After JPMorgan's Derivatives Loss [View article]
    To Felipenet7: There are many websites where you can spew your crackpot conspiracy paranoia. Please go there, perhaps after you improve your English. To the SA monitor: Please don't let this site become a home for wackos, partisan speaking points and the loonies that sit in dark bedrooms wondering where they left their meds...
    May 22 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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