Altria And Lorillard: Smoking-Hot Cigarette Stocks With Juicy Dividends [View article]
"The one thing that would really help Atria diversify is if they owned a large portion of global brewer or something. Well, one can dream. "
Are you joking ? Hard to tell from the printed word. MO owns a substantial piece of Miller Brewers.
As for the author's line about MO's astronomical ROE, that's often the case when a company has high debt loads. ROIC (or better yet, CROIC) is a more meaningful metric with high-debt firms.
My Mad Method: What Next To Buy And Why - February, 2013 [View article]
HRS has some outstanding metrics. Those I look at are: CROIC - 5yr Median 14.8% ttm 16.2% (low 10.7% in FY 2011) FCF Yld - FY 2012 12.0% ttm 12.8% Levered ttm 8.8% Positive FCF for at least the last 10 years 5yr FCF CAGR 14.8% 9yr FCF CAGR 25.5% FCF Margin 5yr Median 10.9% (low 8.6% in FY 2011) Dividend CAGRs 3yr 15.1% 5yr 22.6% 9yr 25.3%
A DCF valuation using a 9% discount rate and 3% growth (the 5yr CAGR of revenues is 5.1%) puts a value of @$70/shr on HRS. Using even a 35% Margin of Safety, this puts HRS securely in buy territory. The problem with DCF valuations is its reliance on guestimates.
I have had HRS on my watch list for quite some time, but I haven't been able to get myself to pull the trigger. In 1999 and again in 2007, I was lucky enough to go almost totally into cash (with an emphasis on lucky). On a seat-of-the-pants basis, I don't feel the market euphoria that I did on those occasions, so it must be some apprehension with the firm's dependence on government customers.
Batting .406 With Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
An amazing thing about Williams hitting > .400 was that he didn't run well. Don't think he beat out too many infield hits. In 1957, at age 39, Williams hit a robust .388 in 546 plate appearances. He drew 119 walks, hit 38 HRs, and struck out only 43 times.
In his last season, 1960, at age 42, he batted .316 in 113 games.
And although he didn't run well, he made a very select list. Only 3 Major League players have stolen a base in four different decades: Ricky Henderson, Tim Raines and Teddy Ballgame.
I only saw him play once in person, my second ever MLB game. Ted went 1-4 against Ford -- single up the middle. Very interesting game for other reasons. Piersall was on first, Jensen on second. Ford tried to pick Piersall off, but threw low and toward home. Skowron had to dive to his left to stop it and landed flat on his face with the ball in his glove. Piersall took the opportunity to sit on Moose's back. While that was going on, Jensen scored from second. Gigantic rhubarb ensued with Casey and Billy Martin going totally nuts. And Skowron wanted to kill Piersall. Game went to the 10th, Yogi led off in the bottom of the inning and hit the first pitch out. Memorable game. I can close my eyes and see it as if it were yesterday.
This also from Morningsta's report on ETY: "The fund typically sells at a large discount, and because of this, ROC (return of cpital) boosts the fund's total return calculations..... Heavy reliance on destructive ROC also points to a fund that is unable to earn its stated payout and should consider lowering it. The fund has used destructive ROC in every fiscal year since inception."
SA author Doug Albo would probably disagree with Morningstar's take on ETY:
Albo's main point of contention in these and other articles is that ETY's ROC strategy is not necessarily destructive; it's part of the fund's option-income strategy. I recently initiated a small position in ETY. We shall see....
Nam Tai Shares Could Triple Despite Apple's Issues [View article]
Bought NTE backi in early '09 when the shares were priced at a fraction of the company's cash (no L/T debt), so I'm already sitting on better than a triple.
Here's hoping the author is correct -- another triple would be SOOOO sweet. I'm holding, expecting to easily see at least a $20 print.
ote, I'm in pretty much the same boat as you and it's not a bad boat at that. I own floaters from MS, GS, HBC and SAN and I can only attribute the recent price action to a belief by yield-seeking buyers that they will pay higher coupons when rates go up -- and soon. Since these issues pay the higher of a floor (usually 4%) or 0.6-0.9% plus LIBOR, with LIBOR at ~ 0.3%, there will definitely be a lag and probably a long lag. LIBOR would have to increase 10-fold for the coupons to increase. I recently sold AEB as it has gotten near par and my capital gain is equal to about 8 years worth of dividends. I'm also getting ready to pull the trigger on my shares of HB-pG. It is my hope that buyers will continue to push up the prices of the MS, GS, and SAN floaters. Perhaps not too many of them will read this article.
Doug is spot on. Current buyers of these shares are in for a surprise when rates do go up. If the economy improves, Senior Loans will start to look more attractive than floating-rate preferreds.
Will Senior Loan CEFs Have Another Good Year In 2013? [View article]
Along these lines, there has been interesting (upward) price action in the floating rate preferred shares, most of which are issued by financial companies. These shares pay the greater of LIBOR plus some small % (usually 0.6% - 0.85%) OR a floor (usually 4%). It would seem that further upside for share price is limited, since, for floating-rate preferreds, LIBOR would have to increase nearly 10-fold (from 0.31% currently to > 3%) for the coupons to exceed the floor. This will no doubt take some time. If hungry yield-seekers continue to drive up the price of these preferreds, it will only lower yields and make matters worse.
In the short run, it would seem that senior participation loan funds are the better bet for both price appreciation and yield increases, but, as the author notes, many of the senior loan CEFs trade at premiums to NAV.
I also thank the author for pointing out how rising rates could increase the cost of leverage and ultimately hurt the returns of these funds, proving that there's no such thing as a free lunch.
Of course, if rates (and LIBOR) increase, it would also mean that economies are strengthening, decreasing the risk of investing in the senior loan funds.
You're Better Off Investing In Federated Investors Than With It [View article]
FII paid special dividends in 2008 ($2.52), 2010 ($1.26) and 2012 ($1.51). Amounts are per share over and above the regular dividend.
The Donahue family controls the company and they are major shareholders who like their dividends. The share price is only slightly higher than my 2008/2009 buy prices, but the income stream has been excellent.
Nevertheless, in hindsight, I do wish I had bought TROW back then instead. I have been a TROW client since the late 70s.
Non-Agency Mortgage REITs: Part 2 - 3 Winners [View article]
Philip, I bought NRF back in March 2012, due largely to 2 articles you penned early in the year and I added to it in June, so I'm sitting on some nice gains and double-digit yields. Good to see you are still confident in the prospects for NRF.
More recently, I entered positions in BKCC and GLAD. Reading your articles has been very beneficial to my financial health. Happy New Year !
Retiring From Active Portfolio Management In 2013? What Is Your Plan B? [View article]
Dare I pick a very small nit ? GGN is a closed-end fund, NOT an ETF. Currently trades at a small (@3.4%) discount to NAV.
Q: Why do men die before their spouses ? A: Because they want to.
I don't really want to, but I figure chances are better than even that I will, so I'm looking for ways to make things easier for the old girl should I wander off into the Great Perhaps before she does. This article helps. Thx...
Retail REITs Outperform: Some Things Can't Be Replicated Online [View article]
"I would never buy shoes on line..."
Same here. Only bought sneakers, but, in one instance, I received two different sized shoes, in another a bad fit, even though I was replacing an identical brand and model which fit me perfectly. In both cases, I was able to return them, but lesson learned.
The same probably goes for clothes. Socks and underwear might be OK, though.
Buy These Cheap, Below $7 Tech Stocks Now For A 'January Effect' Rally [View article]
Since I don't know you, the 'attack' you refer to was directed not toward you but toward your words, a comment which added nothing to the conversation and which, if not small-minded, was certainly overly picky, a pattern I noticed in a quick scan of some of your other posts.
If someone is capable of booting a computer and navigating to SA, he is probably perfectly capable of sniffing out the author's (irrelevant) error without your help and snarky tone.
The last word is yours. Parse my sentences, if you wish....
Altria And Lorillard: Smoking-Hot Cigarette Stocks With Juicy Dividends [View article]
Are you joking ? Hard to tell from the printed word. MO owns a substantial piece of Miller Brewers.
As for the author's line about MO's astronomical ROE, that's often the case when a company has high debt loads. ROIC (or better yet, CROIC) is a more meaningful metric with high-debt firms.
Longtime LONG MO....
My Mad Method: What Next To Buy And Why - February, 2013 [View article]
CROIC - 5yr Median 14.8% ttm 16.2% (low 10.7% in FY 2011)
FCF Yld - FY 2012 12.0% ttm 12.8% Levered ttm 8.8%
Positive FCF for at least the last 10 years
5yr FCF CAGR 14.8% 9yr FCF CAGR 25.5%
FCF Margin 5yr Median 10.9% (low 8.6% in FY 2011)
Dividend CAGRs 3yr 15.1% 5yr 22.6% 9yr 25.3%
A DCF valuation using a 9% discount rate and 3% growth (the 5yr CAGR of revenues is 5.1%) puts a value of @$70/shr on HRS. Using even a 35% Margin of Safety, this puts HRS securely in buy territory. The problem with DCF valuations is its reliance on guestimates.
I have had HRS on my watch list for quite some time, but I haven't been able to get myself to pull the trigger. In 1999 and again in 2007, I was lucky enough to go almost totally into cash (with an emphasis on lucky). On a seat-of-the-pants basis, I don't feel the market euphoria that I did on those occasions, so it must be some apprehension with the firm's dependence on government customers.
Someday;;;;
Pfizer's Cash Position Is Signaling Activity [View article]
Batting .406 With Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
In his last season, 1960, at age 42, he batted .316 in 113 games.
And although he didn't run well, he made a very select list. Only 3 Major League players have stolen a base in four different decades: Ricky Henderson, Tim Raines and Teddy Ballgame.
I only saw him play once in person, my second ever MLB game. Ted went 1-4 against Ford -- single up the middle. Very interesting game for other reasons. Piersall was on first, Jensen on second. Ford tried to pick Piersall off, but threw low and toward home. Skowron had to dive to his left to stop it and landed flat on his face with the ball in his glove. Piersall took the opportunity to sit on Moose's back. While that was going on, Jensen scored from second. Gigantic rhubarb ensued with Casey and Billy Martin going totally nuts. And Skowron wanted to kill Piersall. Game went to the 10th, Yogi led off in the bottom of the inning and hit the first pitch out. Memorable game. I can close my eyes and see it as if it were yesterday.
High Yield Vs. Dividend Growth [View article]
"The fund typically sells at a large discount, and because of this, ROC (return of cpital) boosts the fund's total return calculations..... Heavy reliance on destructive ROC also points to a fund that is unable to earn its stated payout and should consider lowering it. The fund has used destructive ROC in every fiscal year since inception."
SA author Doug Albo would probably disagree with Morningstar's take on ETY:
http://seekingalpha.co...
http://seekingalpha.co...
Albo's main point of contention in these and other articles is that ETY's ROC strategy is not necessarily destructive; it's part of the fund's option-income strategy. I recently initiated a small position in ETY. We shall see....
Nam Tai Shares Could Triple Despite Apple's Issues [View article]
Nam Tai Shares Could Triple Despite Apple's Issues [View article]
Here's hoping the author is correct -- another triple would be SOOOO sweet. I'm holding, expecting to easily see at least a $20 print.
Variable Rate Preferred Stock Shares Unlikely To Beat Fixed Rate Returns [View article]
Doug is spot on. Current buyers of these shares are in for a surprise when rates do go up. If the economy improves, Senior Loans will start to look more attractive than floating-rate preferreds.
Will Senior Loan CEFs Have Another Good Year In 2013? [View article]
In the short run, it would seem that senior participation loan funds are the better bet for both price appreciation and yield increases, but, as the author notes, many of the senior loan CEFs trade at premiums to NAV.
I also thank the author for pointing out how rising rates could increase the cost of leverage and ultimately hurt the returns of these funds, proving that there's no such thing as a free lunch.
Of course, if rates (and LIBOR) increase, it would also mean that economies are strengthening, decreasing the risk of investing in the senior loan funds.
Timely article for a difficult time.
You're Better Off Investing In Federated Investors Than With It [View article]
The Donahue family controls the company and they are major shareholders who like their dividends. The share price is only slightly higher than my 2008/2009 buy prices, but the income stream has been excellent.
Nevertheless, in hindsight, I do wish I had bought TROW back then instead. I have been a TROW client since the late 70s.
Non-Agency Mortgage REITs: Part 2 - 3 Winners [View article]
More recently, I entered positions in BKCC and GLAD. Reading your articles has been very beneficial to my financial health. Happy New Year !
Retiring From Active Portfolio Management In 2013? What Is Your Plan B? [View article]
Currently trades at a small (@3.4%) discount to NAV.
Q: Why do men die before their spouses ?
A: Because they want to.
I don't really want to, but I figure chances are better than even that I will, so I'm looking for ways to make things easier for the old girl should I wander off into the Great Perhaps before she does. This article helps. Thx...
Atlas Pipeline Partners: 7% Yielder Gets Shout Out From Leon Cooperman [View article]
Long APL since early 2009. MLPs are a P-I-T-A taxwise, but the rising distributions make it worthwhile.
Link to distribution history:
http://bit.ly/WeJJSw
Retail REITs Outperform: Some Things Can't Be Replicated Online [View article]
Same here. Only bought sneakers, but, in one instance, I received two different sized shoes, in another a bad fit, even though I was replacing an identical brand and model which fit me perfectly. In both cases, I was able to return them, but lesson learned.
The same probably goes for clothes. Socks and underwear might be OK, though.
Buy These Cheap, Below $7 Tech Stocks Now For A 'January Effect' Rally [View article]
If someone is capable of booting a computer and navigating to SA, he is probably perfectly capable of sniffing out the author's (irrelevant) error without your help and snarky tone.
The last word is yours. Parse my sentences, if you wish....