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depraved_miscreant

depraved_miscreant
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  • Retirement's 4% Rule: Surprising Answers You Need to Know About the Inflation Factor [View article]
    BTW, according to Otar, the biggest risk that your assets will not last you through your lifetime might be a down market in the first years of retirement. Very difficult to recover from.
    Jul 27 12:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement's 4% Rule: Surprising Answers You Need to Know About the Inflation Factor [View article]
    James Otar has written a book, "Unveiling The Retirement Myth", which I was lucky enough to download while it was still free. If you can get your hands on a copy, it's a worthwhile (though long - 565 pages) read. It is full of ideas about what can go wrong -- the full NON-ROSY scenario.

    Here's a link: retirementoptimizer.com/

    I don't know the author nor do I have any financial relationship with him, but the site certainly does contain several ideas (and more links) for future investigation of the subject.
    Jul 27 12:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bolt Technology: An Unusual Energy Services Company [View article]
    Nice article. BOLT has been on my watch list for a while. I passed at better prices last year because of the Gulf issues.

    Assuming 8% growth, my DCF model values BOLT at north of $19. At 10.5% growth, valuation exceeds $20. The FY2010 FCF yield is 10.6%, but for the ttm, the yield was cut in half -- 5.3%. FCF yield reached 16.3% in Aug2010 and has been declining since.

    My 2 reverse-engineered models show growth rates ranging from negative growth to 1.6%, i.e., the rates implied by the current price ($13.89).

    I prefer a bit more of a margin of safety, so I'd look to initiate a small position just a wee bit lower -- say $13.25.
    Jul 18 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the 'Cramer Effect' Create a Short-Term Buying Opportunity in Chimera? [View article]
    It's very sad that there is a 'Cramer Effect'. Doesn't anyone remember the Len Dykstra episode ?
    Jul 15 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Profile: Schizophrenic or Merely Manic-Depressive (And What's an Investor to Do?) [View article]
    Great article, Joseph.
    Here's a quote from Jeremy Grantham circa 2010:
    “In 1965, 3% of GDP that was made up of financial services [and that] was clearly sufficient to the task, the proof being that the decade was a strong candidate for the greatest economic decade of the 20th century. We should be suspicious, therefore, of the benefits derived from the extra 4.5% of the pie that went to pay for financial services by 2007, as the financial services share of GDP expanded to a remarkable 7.5%.

    This extra 4.5% would seem to be without material value except to the recipients. Yet it is a form of tax on the remaining real economy and should reduce by 4.5% a year its ability to save and invest, both of which did slow down. This, in turn, should eventually reduce the growth rate of the non-financial sector, which it indeed did: from 3.5% a year before 1965, this growth rate slowed to 2.4% between 1980 and 2007, even before the crisis.”

    Seems to me there are now more funds than stocks. What really gets me is trading on the VIX. The VIX isn't even an index of stoxx, just an indicator of volatility. What'll they think of to bet on next?
    Jul 14 05:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Systems: Colossal Free Cash Flows Create a Compelling Opportunity [View article]
    Charbroil, I don't think your comment was directed at me, but rather to Bernie1, but ....

    A company can do several things with FCF, such as buying back shares. Most companies do buy backs when they are flush and the stocks are fully/overvalued, a questionable use of the cash, at best. They can also use FCF to invest in a line of business which provides inadequate returns, destroying shareholder value. They can also use the cash to make bad acquisitions, which was/is certainly one of the problems with CSCO.

    I'm a FCF guy. I'll get interested in a company ONLY if I see FCF. But management has to do the right thing(s) with it....
    Jul 14 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Inventories Falling, All-Time High Ahead? [View article]
    "Not mentioned is the problems with supply"
    Bingo. Largely why I am kicking myself for selling out of FCX too early.
    Jul 13 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Systems: Colossal Free Cash Flows Create a Compelling Opportunity [View article]
    "..what good is free cash flow..."

    Ah, bernie, you've identified the fly in the ointment. A company can do about 5 things with FCF and not all of them are good.

    See 'Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Yield' by Bill Priest for a good treatment of the subject.
    Jul 13 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Systems: Colossal Free Cash Flows Create a Compelling Opportunity [View article]
    Can anyone suggest a website where one can learn how to read chicken entrails? I raise chickens, so I have a few I can spare for testing. Also, does one get more accurate results from roosters or hens? How reliable are Rhode Island Reds ? <gggg>

    BTW, good article, but if I ever go long one of the large-cap old techs, I think it will be INTC.
    Jul 13 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Stocks That Could Make 30% This Year [View article]
    RTN; FCF and Cash From Operations are also sending negative signals. Both have been in decline since 2006. FCF/shr peaked @$6/shr in 12/09 and has fallen steadily for 5 consecutive quarters since. I get $3.59 for the 03/11 quarter.

    Yet, using the average FCF of the past 5 years, a 12% discount rate and assuming zero growth, a quick DCF valuation spits out @$60/shr ($70 if assuming 6% growth).

    I could get more interested in RTN at lower levels, assuming the company turns this trend around.
    Jul 13 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Stocks That Could Make 30% This Year [View article]
    RTN's balance sheet should also send up a flag. Goodwill accounts for about half of total assets. Not much tangible equity, with an emphasis on tangible. I don't follow the co., but if you're interested in going long RTN, you should take a hard look at the contributions of their acquisitions. If they have to write something down, look out below.

    I repeat that I don't follow the company; just giving a reason to be careful....
    Jul 13 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Companies Paying Large Dividends That Are Fully Covered by Earnings [View article]
    "Figure out a good stock price first; then buy and sell that..."

    Sage advice. For TEF, the FCF Yield is currently @10.5%, a reasonable level. However, it is down from 2005 levels. Since then, FCF and ROIC have been in decline, but this has been due to large increases in CapEx. Cash from operations, though, has nearly tripled over the last decade and the share count is down @10%, accounting for splits. I'm tempted to initiate a 1/3 position at these levels. VOD might also be worth a look.
    Jul 12 12:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Companies Paying Large Dividends That Are Fully Covered by Earnings [View article]
    My mistake here was in assuming Morningstars numbers were in dollars. They are, in fact, in euros so they are in line with Yahoo's numbers. Apologies for any confusion, gang. Thanks to Albert for his post of the CEO's statements.

    Bottom line: TEF's numbers look pretty good, unless the euro declines significantly vs. the dollar.
    Jul 11 05:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Companies Paying Large Dividends That Are Fully Covered by Earnings [View article]
    Yahoo sez EPS $3.20 (ttm) & (annual) dividend $2.16. That's very reasonable for a telecomm utility, if correct. Morningstar lists EPS (ttm) at $2.24. That's a little close, if correct.

    Company website shows last 2 semi-annual payouts totalling 1.40 Euros. This AM, the Euro traded just below $1.40, so that's @$1.96.

    BTW, next payment is in November. I sure would like the straight skinny on this.
    Jul 11 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Companies Paying Large Dividends That Are Fully Covered by Earnings [View article]
    I'd love to join you in TEF at that price. I already own STD-pB, a floating-rate preferred.

    BTW, the withholding rate for Spain is 19%, correct ???
    Jul 11 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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