Vitaliy Katsenelson's 'Sideways Markets': A Little Book Big on Sound Advice [View article]
I read Vitaliy's first book, Active Value Investing, published in 2007. A lot has happened since, but from your review, the new book sounds like a rehash of the first.
Alan, did you read Active Value Investing ? If so, is there enough new material in this follow-up to justify my parting with $9.99 to download the eBook ?
Personally, I don't consider Total Debt/FCF of 4.6 too high. One way to look at it is that the company could pay off all its debt using FCF in less than 5 years. What does trouble me is the anemic growth in FCF from 2003 compared to the growth of L/T Debt.
4 Software Infrastructure Companies to Consider [View article]
Used two different reverse-engineered DCF models. both of them rather simple with few moving parts (no WACC, etc.). 12% discount rate with 1-2% terminal growth rates.
I believe Discounted Cash Flow valuations are great in theory, but the problem is guestimating the growth rates. So I do it backwards: given this discount rate, what growth is implied in the stock price? OR, given the growth rates of the last five years, what discount rate is implied? If I think 8% growth is doable, I might buy. Just not that familiar with JCOM. I need to read a few annual reports.
Municipal Bonds: Are Dozens of State and Local Governments About to Default? [View article]
"By the way, how many of Roubini's subsequent predictions came true? Any? None that I have seen. I remember Grazelli, Grantham, Cohen, all made one great prediction, and zillions of subsequent incorrect ones."
I think you meant Elaine Garzarelli and Joe Granville (not Jeremy Grantham - he's competent). Granville was a clown who stayed bearish throughout the early 90s, much like Cramer stayed bullish throughout 2000 (and about 2500 NASDAQ points down -- but he doesn't recall that). I liked Garzarelli; she was a babe. I guess Cohen is Abbie Joseph Cohen. But she's a perma-bull. Lots of bullish geniuses around during the 90s.
Always reminds me of a quote from Warren Spahn, who played for Casey Stengel as a Boston Brave and a New York Met. Spahn said he played for Casey both before and after he was a genius.
4 Software Infrastructure Companies to Consider [View article]
JCOM is on my watch list of 50 companies. ROE has been @20% or higher over the past 8 years, during which time FCF and shareholder equity has grown like a weed. Low, manageable debt. Whopping margins. What's not to like ? Maybe current valuation, which is the only reason I'm still watching and not long. FCF yield a bit too low for my liking.
My calcs get @9-10.5% growth implied in the price. To those more up on the stock than me: is 9% or 10.5% sustainable ?
Abbott Laboratories Shares 'Marked Down' - Good Time to Buy? [View article]
Hey, whaddya know. An S/A contributor with flair and style. A cross between Alan Abelson and Washington Irving. And content, too. Enjoyable and enlightening. And, coincidentally, articles about stocks on my watch list. Keep 'em coming, Roger.
Searching for Laggards: 54 Low PE Stocks That Are Down but Not Out [View article]
I have been watching TECD since the spring, but I have never pulled the trigger. Each $44 share represents almost $22 in cash. I am not thrilled with what is a low margin business, yet TECD's Cash Return on Invested Capital has exceed 11% in 4 of the last 5 years and the company has reduced shares from 58M to 51M over that period.
I should be buying. TECD is priced for negative growth. BTW, Alan, is this another case of a company with all/most of its cash offshore facing high repatriation taxes ?
The St. Joe Company: Einhorn vs. Berkowitz [View article]
FWIW, Berkowitz also owns @14M shares of SHLD. 3Q 13Fs should be available soon. It will be interesting to see if he bought any JCP (ala Ackman).
I had a nice ride with FAIRX, but I sold out. I fear it will be quite a while before Sears is able to monetize its real estate (their best days in retailing are well behind) and I really don't want to be in either BAC or C right now. Or JOE.
These are 4 of his 6 biggest positions. But then, nobody is giving me billions to invest.
The St. Joe Company: Einhorn vs. Berkowitz [View article]
I read a quote from someone (was it Berkowitz ?) that his children or grandchildren would probably be the ultimate beneficiaries of his long position in JOE. Since I probably won't live that long , I'll go with Einhorn here, but I'd sure like to know if Chanos has an opinion on JOE.
I plan to live forever. So far, so good -- Steven Wright
Investor Insanity Regarding the Coming General Motors IPO [View article]
On top of everything mentioned in the article, we have a shaky company brought to its knees by a greedy union and by greedy, incompetent management. But the new CEO is a former board member and Uncle Sam's on the case now, so everything must be OK. Yeah, I'd like to own a piece of this. How can I get in on it ???
Vitaliy Katsenelson's 'Sideways Markets': A Little Book Big on Sound Advice [View article]
Alan, did you read Active Value Investing ? If so, is there enough new material in this follow-up to justify my parting with $9.99 to download the eBook ?
Marathon Oil: Positive Signs Ahead [View article]
Developing a Dividend Value Portfolio for 2011 and Beyond [View article]
Kinetic Concepts Stock Review: Wounded Balance Sheet [View article]
Pulling the Plug on Best Buy, 3 Yield Ideas for the Week [View article]
Conversion date is 06/30/11, just 6 months away.
4 Software Infrastructure Companies to Consider [View article]
I believe Discounted Cash Flow valuations are great in theory, but the problem is guestimating the growth rates. So I do it backwards: given this discount rate, what growth is implied in the stock price? OR, given the growth rates of the last five years, what discount rate is implied? If I think 8% growth is doable, I might buy. Just not that familiar with JCOM. I need to read a few annual reports.
Municipal Bonds: Are Dozens of State and Local Governments About to Default? [View article]
I think you meant Elaine Garzarelli and Joe Granville (not Jeremy Grantham - he's competent). Granville was a clown who stayed bearish throughout the early 90s, much like Cramer stayed bullish throughout 2000 (and about 2500 NASDAQ points down -- but he doesn't recall that). I liked Garzarelli; she was a babe. I guess Cohen is Abbie Joseph Cohen. But she's a perma-bull. Lots of bullish geniuses around during the 90s.
Always reminds me of a quote from Warren Spahn, who played for Casey Stengel as a Boston Brave and a New York Met. Spahn said he played for Casey both before and after he was a genius.
4 Software Infrastructure Companies to Consider [View article]
My calcs get @9-10.5% growth implied in the price. To those more up on the stock than me: is 9% or 10.5% sustainable ?
Periodic Table of the Dividend Champions [View article]
13 Dividend Stocks With a Good Yield / Growth Mix [View article]
Thanks for the explanation, DD.....
Abbott Laboratories Shares 'Marked Down' - Good Time to Buy? [View article]
Searching for Laggards: 54 Low PE Stocks That Are Down but Not Out [View article]
I should be buying. TECD is priced for negative growth. BTW, Alan, is this another case of a company with all/most of its cash offshore facing high repatriation taxes ?
The St. Joe Company: Einhorn vs. Berkowitz [View article]
I had a nice ride with FAIRX, but I sold out. I fear it will be quite a while before Sears is able to monetize its real estate (their best days in retailing are well behind) and I really don't want to be in either BAC or C right now. Or JOE.
These are 4 of his 6 biggest positions. But then, nobody is giving me billions to invest.
The St. Joe Company: Einhorn vs. Berkowitz [View article]
I plan to live forever. So far, so good -- Steven Wright
Investor Insanity Regarding the Coming General Motors IPO [View article]