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depraved_miscreant

depraved_miscreant
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  • The Dumb Dividend Idea [View article]
    Something I would like to see on SA is an 'ignore this author' feature. My SA portfolios generate emails listing articles about the stocks I'm interested in, but some authors' writings on them are just a waste of time. I remember most of those on my 'blacklist', but, frankly, that list is large and growing. Those I follow post rarely, but they're always worth the read.

    I'm not down on David Goldman just yet, but a few more articles like this....
    Sep 28 12:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Not Be Complacent About Dividend Champions [View article]
    James, thanks for continually making me consider the risk of an investment. Your treatment of 'The Great Moderation' is another example of how easy it can be to make the mistake of expecting a repeat performance of the 90s.

    BTW, Free Cash Flow Yield is also my #1 metric. Another (related) favorite is Cash Return on Invested Capital.
    Sep 23 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market-Timing Should Be A Fundamental Component Of Income Investing: Part 1 - Why [View article]
    There's an old saying about technical analysis: it works just fine, except when it doesn't. That said, I do somewhat agree with the general idea of this article, especially the part about drips. But it takes 'stones' to buy at times like the fall of 2008 to the spring of 2009. You've got to be able to pull the trigger despite the fact that you feel like vomiting, at least in my case. But you can catch some very generous yields.

    I find it easier on my G/I tract to review companies' historical yields. I have developed a spreadsheet which gathers 10-year dividend histories, calculates maximum and minimum yields, and plots the yields against the monthly share prices. 20-year histories are better, but the data are not as easily obtained as are 10-year numbers.
    Sep 15 11:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Of The Highest Yielding Stocks For Very Aggressive Investors [View article]
    Danke, Buck. I should spend more time browsing company web sites....
    Sep 10 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Of The Highest Yielding Stocks For Very Aggressive Investors [View article]
    Buck, specifically, what do you mean by "their dividend is more than 50% covered by FCF"? I'm long CTL via the Q merger. Because of CTL's M&A, I'm having a problem figuring exactly what the dividend coverage is. The standard payout ratios I see are 90-110%, although I believe that is vs. earnings, not FCF.

    I bought Q on the cheap. As a result, my yield on cost is a hair under 13%, which I'd hate to give up. But the payout ratios make me nervous. I'm also long CINF.
    Sep 9 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanderson Farms: Underpriced And Worth A Closer Look [View article]
    I see different numbers for FCF. Total FCF for FY10 was $33.6M (two different sources -- AdvFN and Morningstar). With @22M shares, that's more like $1.50/shr, less than half the amount stated above. And the YOY decrease is larger than that specified: $137.5M => $33.6M.

    Moreover, FCF since 2005 has been positive only twice: 2009 and 2010, but the TTM number is strongly negative: (-$229.4M), due to CapEx, but equally to negative Cash from Operations.

    Based on these results, I find it difficult to believe SAFM is underpriced. Struggling seems more like it.
    Aug 30 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Balchem Corp.: Key To Environmentally Friendly Fracking [View article]
    "It's always a bit expensive - the price one pays for quality I suspect."

    I'll say. At current price, BCPC sells for 35-38 times FCF (2.6-2.8% FCF yield). Good company, good story, good article, though.
    Aug 26 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Cheap, Unloved Real Estate Stocks With Little Debt [View article]
    How did NLY even make the cut, since debt is their business?

    I am long NLY.
    Aug 25 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Altria An Intelligent Investment Right Now? [View article]
    "They'll ban advertising, but guess what? That's a huge plus for Altria--that means their brand image is cemented and huge barriers to entry will prevent smaller competitors from gaining traction."

    Excellent point, Bob. And the money not spent on advertising merely increases margins.

    Owned MO for over 25 years, then got spooked out of it in the late 90s because of the litigation fears. Long again since 11/08. Needless to say, I love this company.

    The smoking lamp is now lighted in all authorized places.....
    Aug 24 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waste Management: Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Checked out the FCF Yield for the past decade and the current yield had been approaching the decade low of 06/2004 until the recent sell-off. I get @7.8%. Levered FCF, according to Yahoo!, is 6.5%. Might be a reasonable entry point given the dividend, but a longer-term chart looks really lousy and I'm no chart reader.
    Aug 23 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How To Get Sustainable 7% Dividend Yields When Markets Crash [View article]
    I grabbed a few preferreds (Alianz, Aegon, Deutschebank) back in the spring of '09. Had no idea that was the bottom, but 22-30% yields were hard to pass up. I resisted taking capital gains when they popped above par and they've given some back, so I'm still collecting those fat yields and preferreds are a bit higher on the food chain.

    You're correct, Kurtis, it's a different game and it requires a different mindset.
    Aug 22 07:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Supermarket Stocks Falling but They Will Bounce Back [View article]
    SWY selling for @ 6 times FCF. SVU @ 3 times. Amazing.

    I'm in....SVU, that is.
    Aug 10 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amsurg's Free Cash Flow Not What It Seems [View article]
    Depends on what's typical for the company. I get your point, though, and I agree.

    But leave the payouts to partners in the FCF and the FCF yield Is in the neighborhood of 28%. That's eye-popping.
    Aug 9 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amsurg's Free Cash Flow Not What It Seems [View article]
    Ken Hackel covered FCF at AMSG back in February:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Bottom Line: After deducting payouts to the partners, FCF at AMSG is no longer eye-popping. It is, however, very solid.
    Aug 8 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn's Amazing Stock Picks [View article]
    I have another moniker in mind, but I'll be diddled if I know how to change it here on SA.
    Jul 28 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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