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Samuel H

Samuel H
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  • Can You Really Trust Tesla? [View article]
    "And now it launched the 70D, which is effectively a discounted, lower margin product (due to the much higher specs it carries versus the car it replaces, with just a token increase in price)."

    Discounted? That doesn't make any sense. Considering the Model S 60 didn't sell well at all, it does make sense to cut it and replace it with something more compelling that will actually you know, sell and make them money. They do after all need to increase demand to meet their 55,000 vehicle target for this year. The same Bloomberg that you touted as you source called the Model S70D a "Pure Profit Play."

    Because it's appropriate, I'm going to repost my rather lengthy post from a different article.

    "Consistent with our recent downgrade, the new 70 makes the upgrade to the 85D less compelling now and could cannibalize sales of the more expensive model in our view," CLSA America's Tesla analyst Andrew Fung told "Fast Money" this week.

    This is one analyst's unfunded idea. I would say that the recent upgrade to the Model S85D makes it more compelling than ever. It now has the performance close to the discontinued P85 for about $8,000 less than the P85 did. It also has AWD, better efficiency, a longer range, Autopilot, and other doodads that now come stock. For just $10,000 more than the S70D, the S85D gets a 0-60 time drop of .8 sec. BMW charges about $18,000 for the same difference in performance. Porsche charges a whole lot more than that for smaller increases in performance. The S85D is totally worth it!

    The S70D will bring more people into the Tesla fold since it's actually a desirable entry-level Model S unlike the S60 which only made up 2% of Tesla's total demand. They are not cannibalizing themselves. They are expanding their customer base. For the few that I read who are switching their reservation, they are switching to a fully-loaded S70D, instead of a partly optioned up S85D. Expensive options are almost pure profit for Tesla. I would say that the gross margin will probably increase rather than decrease because of the number of fully loaded S70Ds being ordered.

    The Model X is going to be pretty epic. They've delayed it several times in order to perfect it. They don't want to do what they did with the Model S which making the first 2,000 customers be their Beta testers. SUVs and crossovers are selling more than than cars in America. It will essentially be a Model S with a higher seating position, more space, a more advanced design, and the latest tech integrated into it. The option to add a third row is certainly welcome, and for those complaining about a lack of a roof rack, hitch-mounted racks are far easier to use and more efficient.

    As far as competition is concerned, What competition? Tesla actually has a vehicle, has the technology, and has a clear direction for the future. PHEVs with tiny electric ranges and reduced cargo space are not Tesla competition. Just look at their sales volumes. The Porsche Panamera and Cayenne E-Hybrids are proof at that. Audi says they will make a long range electric SUV in 2017, but their EV track record is terrible. Porsche says they might make a Model S competitor in 2019. Chevy's Bolt will be an electric Sonic, hardly a Tesla competitor. Again I say, what competition?
    Apr 21, 2015. 06:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Today's Affordable Electric Cars: And The Winner Is ... Not Tesla [View article]
    The Tesla Model S can use any other DC charger with an adaptor. No other vehicles can use Tesla's superior network.
    Apr 20, 2015. 04:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Today's Affordable Electric Cars: And The Winner Is ... Not Tesla [View article]
    If most people think a 20-45 min. charge at a Supercharger station is a long time, what makes you think that anyone would tolerate charges in excess of an hour?!!

    135kW vs 50kW... no contest.
    Apr 20, 2015. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Seems To Be Staggering Releases To Take It To The Model X [View article]
    Duh they are trying to increase demand. How else are they to get to their 55,000 number by the end of the year? They still haven't resorted to advertising yet unlike every other automaker has had to.
    Apr 14, 2015. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Seems To Be Staggering Releases To Take It To The Model X [View article]
    Actually, there is less competition down low for Tesla as there are currently NO 200+ mile range affordable EVs, and only the Model III will have Supercharging capability. The Chevy Sonic EV, I mean Bolt, or Nissan's Leaf 2.0 will not be a competitors for the Model III, Tesla's BMW 3-series competitor. Who in their right mind compares a Kia Soul with a Cadillac ATS or Lexus IS? Exactly. No one. The i3 might be viewed as competitor for the Model III, but that would be an apples to bananas comparison.
    Apr 14, 2015. 05:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Seems To Be Staggering Releases To Take It To The Model X [View article]
    This is simply your opinion. A .8 sec. difference in acceleration is HUGE! Do you have any idea what other companies charge for that? Of course you don't. BMW charges $18,000+ for the same .8 sec. difference between the 335i and the M3 in a lower, more price conscious range. Porsche charges $22,200 for the smaller .7 sec. difference between the Panamera S and Panamera GTS, and yet, people shell out the big bucks. Tesla is only charging $10K more for the extra acceleration as well as extra range. Thirty miles is nearly half of a Nissan Leaf's range! Let's call it range anxiety insurance...

    For many of those that I read who were changing their reservation from an S85D to an S70D, they were changing from a mostly optioned S85D to a fully optioned S70D. Since options are mostly profit for Tesla, I would say that Tesla is making just as much, if not more money even if only by virtue of the fact that they will be selling a lot more cars this year.

    I would say that the Model S 85D is the most compelling car that they make now. It has the longest range of the Model S family, nearly the performance of the now discontinued P85 for $8,000 less, and it has AWD which improves handling over the 2WD model. Vast majority my eye... $10K isn't that much of a difference in this price range.

    Bloomberg seems to think that the S70D is simply a profit play for Tesla.
    http://bloom.bg/1aCtSvL
    Apr 14, 2015. 05:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Seems To Be Staggering Releases To Take It To The Model X [View article]
    I say that the Model X looks like a BMW X6 which was recently given very high marks by all of its reviewers. Sedans are always better-looking than SUVs, CUVs, crossovers, and whatever cross something or other a genius designer comes up with next. That doesn't stop them from selling in huge numbers. If it's fast, spacious, handles well, is safe (lowest CG of any CUV), is efficient, quiet, smooth, comfortable, and can carry a lot of people and stuff, it will be a winner.

    It might not be the most "luxurious" CUV out there, but it is focused on beauty, practicality, ease of use, efficiency, and just epic coolness. Those Falcon Wing doors are worth a LOT! Every rapper and celebrity is going to need a Model X. It's way cooler than the Cadillac Escalade they just bought last year.

    People really don't care that much about looks. You know how I know? The Prius, BMW i3, Nissan Leaf, Nissan Juke, and Kia Soul all sell fairly well. Just look at Land Rover, the upcoming Bentley Whatchamacallit, and Hummers. Ugly. The Model X is sleeker than any other similar vehicle and beautiful in its own way. It will sell better than most of the SUVs in its price range; just watch and see, that is if Tesla can ramp up production sufficiently quickly to meet the demand in a reasonable timeframe.
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Seems To Be Staggering Releases To Take It To The Model X [View article]
    I can't disagree more with the ridiculous cannibalization idea.

    I would say that the recent upgrade to the Model S85D makes it more compelling than ever. It now has the performance close to the discontinued P85 for about $8,000 less than the P85 did. It also has AWD, better efficiency, a longer range, Autopilot, and other doodads that now come stock. For just $10,000 more than the S70D, the S85D gets a 0-60 time drop of .8 sec. BMW charges about $18,000 for the same difference in performance. Porsche charges a whole lot more than that for smaller increases in performance. The S85D is totally worth it!

    The S70D will bring more people into the Tesla fold since it's actually a desirable entry-level Model S unlike the S60 which only made up 2% of Tesla's total demand. They are not cannibalizing themselves. They are expanding their customer base. For the few that I read who are switching their reservation, they are switching to a fully-loaded S70D, instead of a partly optioned up S85D. Expensive options are almost pure profit for Tesla. I would say that the gross margin will probably increase rather than decrease because of the number of fully loaded S70Ds being ordered.

    The Model X is going to be pretty epic. They've delayed it several times in order to perfect it. They don't want to do what they did with the Model S which making the first 2,000 customers be their Beta testers. SUVs and crossovers are selling more than than cars in America. It will essentially be a Model S with a higher seating position, more space, a more advanced design, and the latest tech integrated into it. The option to add a third row is certainly welcome, and for those complaining about a lack of a roof rack, hitch-mounted racks are far easier to use and more efficient.

    Another thing, do you want to wait 3 months from the time you buy a car to delivery? No! I think that Tesla needs to get the order to delivery times under a month and keep it there. That should encourage more (impatient) people to pull the trigger on their purchase. People don't like waiting. Seriously...
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:25 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: It's Time To Accelerate [View article]
    I highly doubt that a $35,000 PHEV will outsell a $35,000 200+ mile EV. Just look at the Chevy Volt vs Model S sales. Despite the Model S costing 3X as much, their sales figures are similar.

    The sales figures of PHEVs already shows that there is little interest in a more expensive version of a car with a tiny range and reduced cargo space. Honda Accord PHEV, Toyota Prius PHEV, Ford Fusion PHEV, BMW, Mercedes, Audi, and Porsche PHEVs all sell in very small numbers. What makes you think that there is huge demand for PHEVs?

    The Model III will essentially be an 80% scale Model S to compete with BMW 3-series (and C-class, A4, etc.) in price, performance, looks, and technology. It's expected to achieve a 200-mile "real-world range" according to Musk at the entry price of $35,000. This is the real screaming opportunity!
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    Correction: Tesla sold ~200 Model S 60s in Q1 (2% of total demand).
    Apr 11, 2015. 03:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Walking On Thin Ice Regarding Customer Trust [View article]
    Why buy the S85? You get a much bigger frunk and it costs $5,000 less, that's why. I personally would prefer the S85 for that reason. The intrusion of the front motor into the frunk just doesn't look right to me, and I don't need AWD. Norwegian users have been doing just fine with their RWD cars so I don't think traction will ever be an issue. Turn traction control off, and you can do Burnouts! I'm not so sure the AWD car can do that.

    Tesla needs to boost sales this year to hit their 55K number. What better way to do that by getting rid of a variant that only sold ~200 copies last quarter and replacing it with a very attractive option? I wouldn't call a price increase a price cut. That doesn't make any sense. http://bloom.bg/1aCtSvL Even it were, that would get more Tesla's on the road which is still a good thing for Tesla and the EV market. I call it an all-around winner for Tesla. These shorts can find the downside in every situation no matter how minimal (or non-existent) and blow it out of proportion.

    The S70D won't cannibalize that many sales of the S85D which has more range and vastly better performance for just $10K more. The S70D is fast. The S85D is a little shy of the original P85 or near supercar territory. Remember all of those videos of the P85 spanking various sports cars?

    Performance is worth a lot of money. The BMW 335i costs $43,750 and does 0-60 mph in 4.6 sec. The BMW M3 costs $62,000 and does 0-60 in 3.8 sec. They are charging $18,250 for the same .8 sec. difference between the S70D and the S85D. With the S85D, you get an AWD car with nearly the performance of the $93,400 P85 with more efficiency and longer range, Autopilot, and it cost $7,000 less. I would say that with the increased performance and extra goodies, the S85D is a deal!

    If anything, the S70D will draw more people into the Tesla fold. Some of those who were going to buy a lightly loaded S85D have stated that they downgraded to the S70D and loaded it up with all the expensive options making it even more profitable for Tesla. All of the extra press is always nice as well. I'm looking forward to reading and commenting on all the S70D and S85D reviews!

    I predicted that Tesla would increase the battery capacity for the base Model X to give it a 200+ mile range. A Model X 60 would have gotten a 188-mile EPA rating (90% S60 range), and that just would not do. I think that the S70D is it, and a Model X 70D will probably get a 216-mile EPA range (slightly more range than the S60; 90% S70 range).

    TSLA is over $210 again. The shorts were warned but did they listen? I can't wait for the Tesla Model X and its reviews! Whatever's happing on April 30 sounds pretty interesting as well. TSLA might dip again between April 30 and the Model X launch, but afterward, I doubt we'll see sub-$200 for a long while unless the Model X doesn't meet with expectations. We shall see...
    Apr 11, 2015. 03:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    Tesla needs to boost sales this year to hit their 55K number. What better way to do that by getting rid of a variant that only sold 2 copies last quarter and replacing it with a very attractive option? I wouldn't call a price increase a price cut. That doesn't make any sense. http://bloom.bg/1aCtSvL Even it were, that would get more Tesla's on the road which is still a good thing for Tesla and the EV market. I call it an all-around winner for Tesla. These shorts can find the downside in every situation no matter how minimal (or non-existent) and blow it out of proportion.

    The S70D will cannibalize only a few sales of the S85D which has more range and vastly better performance for just $10K more. The S70D is fast. The S85D is a little shy of the original P85 or near supercar territory. Remember all of those videos of the P85 spanking various sports cars?

    Performance is worth a lot of money. The BMW 335i costs $43,750 and does 0-60 mph in 4.6 sec. The BMW M3 costs $62,000 and does 0-60 in 3.8 sec. They are charging $18,250 for the same .8 sec. difference between the S70D and the S85D. With the S85D, you get an AWD car with nearly the performance of the $93,400 P85, more efficiency and longer range, Autopilot, and it cost $7,000 less. I would say that with the increased performance and extra goodies, the S85D is a deal!

    If anything, the S70D will draw more people into the Tesla fold. Some of those who were going to buy a lightly loaded S85D have stated that they downgraded to the S70D and loaded it up with all the expensive options making it even more profitable for Tesla. All of the extra press is always nice as well. I'm looking forward to reading and commenting on all the S70D and S85D reviews!

    I predicted that Tesla would increase the battery capacity for the base Model X to give it a 200+ mile range. A Model X 60 would have gotten a 188-mile EPA rating (90% S60 range), and that just would not do. I think that the S70D is it, and a Model X 70D will probably get a 216-mile EPA range (slightly more range than the S60; 90% S70 range).

    TSLA is over $210 again. The shorts were warned but did they listen? I can't wait for the Tesla Model X and its reviews! Whatever's happing on April 30 sounds pretty interesting as well. TSLA might dip again between April 30 and the Model X launch, but afterward, I doubt we'll see sub-$200 for a long while unless the Model X doesn't meet with expectations. We shall see...
    Apr 11, 2015. 03:16 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And The State Of The Electric Vehicle Debate [View article]
    I wish current PHEVs averaged 30+ miles on a charge! As it stands, most have a range of around 20 miles or less which is pretty much pointless. Only the Chevy Volt with its 50-mile electric range hits the customers' sweet spot. Now if it were a crossover and had five seats, it would be even better.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Applauding The New Approach [View article]
    Are you talking about nickel metal hydride? There is no way on earth that nickel metal hydride is better than lithium ion in any way. It's heavier, less energy dense, and is toxic.
    Apr 4, 2015. 12:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will The New Tesla Product Be And How Much Will It Cost? Here's My Best Guess [View article]
    The small footprint of this battery backup and an attractive design will attract many a Tesla owner. If they bought a $100,000 car, $3000 for something else with a Tesla logo is chump change. Solar City customers far outnumber Tesla owners and would be open to this, especially if it saves them money. Seriously, who wants something twice the size of a deep freezer taking up space in their garage? Tesla's slim, aesthetic, wall-mounted units are going to sell like hotcakes (mostly because of the incentives). Having a generator is the garage just in case also makes sense.
    Apr 3, 2015. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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