Samuel H

Samuel H
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  • Tesla Model 3, Like Model S, Will Be Unaffected By Low Gas Prices  [View article]
    All these other "lower priced long distance EVs" won't have a Supercharger Network which greatly affects their desirability.

    Tesla makes the only EVs that can do cross continental trips (PHEVs are a different story). Everyone else doesn't, and simply increasing the range does not solve the issue of long distance travel.

    The Tesla Model S will come as not only a sedan, but also a CUV model. It won't just compete in the entry-level luxury market but will also steal sales from the likes what used to be the Hundai Genesis, the Hyundai Azera, Toyota Avalon, Chevy Impala, Ford Taurus, Volvo S60, etc. as well as the numerous CUVs, crossovers, and small SUVs near this price point.
    Jan 28, 2016. 12:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Model 3, Like Model S, Will Be Unaffected By Low Gas Prices  [View article]
    The Tesla Model III like the Model X will probably debut with the most profitable Founders then Signature models. It will be a BMW M3/M4 competitor. Then the BMW 335i competition will come out, and lastly once production is well underway, the $35K base model comparable to the BMW 328i will hit the streets circa 2019. I fully expect the Chevy Bolt to be on sale for two years before the price comparable Model III hits the streets, but that really won't matter much since they are in a different class (EV econobox vs entry level luxury/sport). The EPIC top models of the Model III will whet people's desires to own a Tesla, much like the Model S and X have.

    How will the Tesla Model III stack up in a value comparison to the BMW 328i? I'm sure the BMW will offer more "luxury," but the Model III will amost certainly offer an available Autopilot package making it extremely desirable as well as have an extremly low CG combined with gobs of instant torque. The lighter weight (compared to the Model S) will make it handle better. It will be extremely safe, offer tons of cargo space, look good, and probably have some really cool features because TESLA.

    Remember, Teslas have never been about saving money, and the Model III is no exception which means gas prices will have little effect on sales because that's totally missing the point. It's an object of desire like a BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Mercedes C-class, or Cadillac ATS.
    A recent poll of over 1,000 EV owners showed that people prefer and buy Tesla's vehicles over other vehicles, not just EVs, despite their higher cost and are at least twice as excited about the Model III as they are about the the Chevy Bolt. The Tesla Model III will compete with ALL comers not just hybrids, PHEVs, and EVs.
    Jan 27, 2016. 08:04 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Design 101: Tesla's Model 3 Versus GM's Chevy Bolt - Stiletto Heel Versus Nike Running Shoe  [View article]
    The real question is how will Tesla sell a BMW 328i competitior for the same price as a BMW 328i?
    Stiletto vs Nike running shoe? Please! The Tesla Model III is the Air Jordans and the Bolt is the Starter Basics shoe.

    The Tesla Model III like the Model X will probably debut with the most profitable Signature models. It will be a BMW M3/M4 competitior. Then the BMW 335i competition will come out, and lastly once production is well underway, the $35K base model comparable to the BMW 328i will hit the streets circa 2019. I fully expect the Chevy Bolt to be on sale for two years before the price comparable Model III hits the streets, but that really won't matter much. The EPIC top models of the Model III will whet people's desires.

    For those who want to spend $30-40K on what's essentially a $15K econobox with EV running gear, the Chevy Bolt will do just fine. For those who want their money's worth, the Model III will also do just fine. The only reason to spend that much money on the Bolt is if you really want to buy the longest range EV and can't afford or won't spend the money on a Tesla.

    Without a SC network, the Bolt will be a range anxiety free electric city car. You don't have to be an EV nut to desire a Tesla and THAT is the beauty of it. Even gasoline car afficionados appreciate an EV that can totally replace a gas car. Ask any non-EV enthusiast if they would spend over $30K on an electric Chevy Sonic. You will find as I have that all of them say "No way!" You could buy a much larger and more roomy, comfortable SUV for the price of a Bolt.

    Why do people buy econoboxes? To SAVE money and get from point A to B as cheaply as possible. In a value comparison, the Chevy Spark, Sonic, and Cruze in addition to similar offerings from every major automaker all beat the pants off the Bolt. Why would someone choose the EV over the cheaper, more familiar, faster refueling, much longer ranged, and relatively efficient gas-powered econobox? You'd have to be an EV enthusiast to pick the Bolt or a gasser, esp. with cheap gas, and there aren't that many EV enthusiasts.

    How will the Tesla Model III stack up in a value comparison to the BMW 328i? I'm sure the BMW will offer more "luxury," but the Model III will amost certainly offer an available Autopilot package making it extremely desirable as well as have an extremly low CG combined with gobs of instant torque. The lighter weight (compared to the Model S) will make it handle better. It will be extremely safe, offer tons of cargo space, look good, and probably have some really cool features because TESLA.

    Remember, Teslas have never been about saving money, and the Model III is not exception which means gas prices will have little effect on sales because that's totally missing the point. It's an object of desire like a BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Mercedes C-class, or Cadillac ATS.

    A recent poll of over 1,000 EV owners showed that people prefer and buy Tesla's vehicles over other vehicles, not just EVs, despite their higher cost and are at least twice as excited about the Model III as they are about the the Bolt.

    The Chevy Bolt competes with other EVs. The Tesla Model III will compete with ALL comers.
    Jan 27, 2016. 05:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevy Bolt Will Hurt Nissan And BMW, Not Tesla  [View article]
    If we are comparing engine and transmission replacement costs to battery replacement costs, let's look at it.

    Some Tesla owners prepaid $12K for a future battery replacement. If you look at the cost of a brand new BMW 535i's engine then add in the cost of a new transmission as well as 25-30 hrs of labor that a dealer would charge, it would most certainly cost more. This is why almost nobody replaces the engine in their vehicles. Buying a new or used vehicle makes a lot more sense financially and otherwise.

    A used 2008 BMW 535i's engine is $3.5-4.5K depending on mileage and condition. A used transmission is $1,400-1,900. The labor to install these engines is 25-30 hrs, not 8, putting the cost of labor alone at $2,500-3,000 if labor is $100/hr. On the low end, it would cost $7,400-$9,400 to put in 8 year old used stuff. New is much, much more.

    Replacing batteries in EVs is expensive, but totally worth it since you'll probably be putting in the latest batteries which will last another 8-10 yrs or more and give you more range and/or be lighter.
    Jan 8, 2016. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CES Put It To Rest: GM Is Coming For Tesla  [View article]
    First off, the Chevy Bolt starts at $37,500 like they said when the concept came out. You predicted that it would cost much less. You were wrong. With options, it will cost over $40K. That is entry level premium vehicle territory, and premium the Bolt is not. It's an range anxiety free electric city car the first of its kind at its price point. However, the BMW 3-series, Mercedes CLA and C-class, Jaguar XE, Audi A3 and A4, Cadillac ATS, Lexus IS, etc. and more importantly, the premium small SUVs all start around this price point. The small percentage of people that only want a BEV will spend the money for it, but the majority will run away in sticker shock and buy the Chevy Sonic that's sitting next to it that costs HALF as much and gets up to 40 mpg. Or if they have the money will spent that same $37,500 on something FAR better that's not "tethered to a plug."

    Those EV owners that you're talking about who are willing to spend premium car money for an electrified Chevy Sonic, may spring for the Bolt lease ASAP. Or they will wait a year for Nissan's 200-mile Leaf which will probably be cheaper. OR save $10K now and get a Leaf because they realize that they really don't need 200 miles of range in a city car. Even then, as Siddharth Dalal already mentioned, MOST EV owners really would prefer to be driving a Tesla, but cannot afford it or justify spending the money on one. However, their current vehicles are stepping stones toward Tesla's "affordable vehicle," the Model III. Many of those who get the Bolt as soon as it's available will in 2-3 yrs spring for the Model III no doubt. Why you ask? Because who wouldn't spend a little more money for a whole lot more car? Cars are not, I repeat, NOT judged based on a single metric such as your $$$/mile of range because reasons. Besides, the Model S is better than the upcoming Bolt by a lot more than 35%. Looks, performance, safety, brand, comfort, practicality, capability, etc. are all important metrics and get factored in when it comes time to buy.

    Tesla may very well preview a $35K Model III sports sedan and $40K CUV in March. Of course the 2017 Founders Editions and 2018 Signature Series will most likely cost FAR more and have a higher range and better performance than the base versions to hit the streets in 2019. Tesla Motors knows what is required of an EV to compete on an even keel with the gas-powered competition. They have to be better, cost about the same, and offer something special that can't be had elsewhere. It's working very well for the Model S which outsells EVERY other large luxury vehicle on the market.

    As someone else mentioned though, GM is battery constrained with the Bolt. They only plan to build 20-30K which means that dealerships need only sell 1 Bolt per month to hit GM's sales target. It will sell just as well as the the BMW i3 and better than the Mercedes B-class EV which could have been awesome but...

    VW came out with a concept EV minivan. Big deal. It's a concept not a real vehicle, and what on earth are you doing comparing it to a Tesla Model X? That's like comparing a Honda Odyssey with a BMW M6. It's just not done because... It should be obvious why! (different type of vehicle, different capabilities, different market segment, etc.) Ah, why do I even bother. Just because they both are powered by electric motors and batteries does not immediately make them competition. They compete with all other vehicles and frankly, the Model X does a better job of competing with high-end SUVs than this EV bus will (if it makes it to market) with the likes of the Ford Flex, Mazda CX9, Chevy Suburban, or Toyota Sienna.

    Audi showed off their 300-mile range, all-electric crossover e-Tron Quattro concept again. Cool. It's really a 5-seat station wagon closer in size to the Subaru Outback than the Tesla Model X. It also is not nearly as cool as the Model X, can't seat as many people, can't tow anything, doesn't have the effortless performance, isn't as practical, etc. It will most likely cost less though ($70K?). I highly doubt that 300-mile range claim since the e-Tron since the battery in it is only slightly larger than the Model X's and probably will have a higher than .24 drag coefficient due to more boxy styling.

    "FCA showed a most unusual - in a positive way - interior concept for a future Jeep, that is totally different from anything you’ve seen." This is totally irrelevant. We've seen epic concept vehicles and ideas for many decades now. Big whup.

    "Mercedes committed to outlining its plans for an electric car roadmap before the end of 2016, plus showed off its self-driving 2017 E-class sedan."

    GOOD! This is Tesla's fault and Elon Musk should be proud. The whole point of even starting Tesla Motors is to spur automakers the world over to produce good, long range EVs that aren't terrible excuses for cars. It is working as evidenced by the common themes at CES of electrification, automation, and connected, digital vehicles. Tesla is spurring on the future, and it is AWESOME!
    Jan 8, 2016. 01:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Porsche Validates The Model S  [View article]
    There is a problem with the specs of the Model S in the article. The Model S P85D had 691 hp. The top-of-the-line 762 hp Tesla Model S P90D with Ludicrous Mode according to Motortrend does 0-60 mph in 2.6 sec. and finishes the quarter mile in 10.9 sec. at 122.7 mph which makes it the quickest production four-door in the world and the fastest in the quarter mile. It also gets 5% more range than the P85D.
    http://bit.ly/1NSGiM9

    If Tesla improves the Model S's range 5% every other year, it will have more range than Porsche's Mission E.
    Dec 11, 2015. 01:05 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Model X Is Made For Rare Women  [View article]
    Those with the money to buy a Tesla Model X undoubtedly have large garages to put them in and charge them. It takes 5 sec. to plug in and 10 sec. to uplug in the safety and comfort of your own home. That's very convenient. One NEVER has to stand in the cold, wind, rain, and/or snow for five minutes just to fill up on expensive gas because it's always full in the morning.

    If you do park your very expensive vehicle outside in the elements, you can preheat while it's still charging before you go like Norwegian Model S owners do. It melts the snow and ice off the car.

    I am disappointed though that the second row does not fold flat. The seven adult sized seats though are definitely a plus. I do like that the Model X's frunk is larger than the Model S's.
    Oct 5, 2015. 10:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: A Realistic Look At The Model 3  [View article]
    Your idea that long range is not a selling point for EVs is absurd. Those who buy EVs right now are content with 70-100 mile range EVs; not so with the car market in general. Tesla is not targeting people who simply want a gas-free relatively inexpensively citycar. That market is tiny which is why the Nissan Leaf and other EVs on the market aren't selling very well.

    People want more range and faster charging times. That's why the Nissan Leaf sells in similar numbers to the far more expensive Model S. Solely based on price, Nissan should be selling >9X more Leafs than Tesla sells Model S's, but they're not. Teslas appeal to a much, MUCH larger spread of people, even some die hard ICE fans.

    Nobody in their right mind compares a Honda Fit to a Cadillac ATS even though both of them have an ICE under the hood. Why do they insist on comparing the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt with the Tesla Model ≡ just because they're electric? The Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt are in town runabouts. The Model ≡ will be a sports sedan that will compete head-to-head with the BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Lexus IS, etc. NOT the Honda Civic or Toyota Camry, although I'm sure some potential Camry buyers will be swayed by the Model ≡. The Supercharger Network enables long distance travel that is a MUST for most people who buy cars.

    Most EVs aren't selling in big numbers right now because they aren't cost competitive in their class, their range is too short to be considered practical, and there's inadequate charging infrastructure to allow for longer trips.
    Tesla's vehicles are all cost competitive in their class, the range is long enough to be practical, and they are simply phenomenal vehicles packed with technology, cool features, and epic performance potential. I am looking forward to the Model ≡ because I know that it will be awesome.

    If the Model S and X are any indications, Tesla Motors does not and never will make lame, boring vehicles.
    Oct 1, 2015. 01:09 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Over, Tesla Wins  [View article]
    The 2017 or 2018 Tesla Model ≡ will be both a sedan and crossover. http://tinyurl.com/ouf... The new Supercar will have "Maximum Plaid Mode" enabling a 0-60 mph time of less than 2.8 sec., and Tesla said to expect it in 2019.
    Sep 28, 2015. 08:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Over, Tesla Wins  [View article]
    You do realize that the VW e-Golf costs a whole lot less than the Tesla Model S. The e-Golf is a spectacular sales flop since it doesn't sell anywhere close to the same quantities as the gas-powered Golf. The Model S on the other hand outsells most of the vehicles in its price range and class in most of its markets.
    Sep 28, 2015. 08:13 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla 2015 Delivery Prediction, And The Chevrolet Bolt Monkey Wrench  [View article]
    Not fake, just very low demand for it, like the $49,900 (after tax credit) 40kWh Model S.
    Sep 23, 2015. 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Misleading Delivery Dates And Model X Range  [View article]
    Your argument makes absolutely no sense. The possible blackouts occur at peak load which is NOT at night when most EVs will be charging. Powerplants are barely above idle at night, basically wasting energy. Using that extra power in EVs would make the grid more efficient.
    Your premise is also entirely wrong as it assumes that half of the population will suddenly double their electricity consumption with all other factors remaining the same. It takes times, and over time the grid will be upgraded to meet incremental load increases.
    Sep 23, 2015. 06:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Audi Vs. Tesla's Supercharging Network: The $1 Billion Investment - Or $18 Billion?  [View article]
    You really did do a good job on this article, and I enjoyed it apart from your customary swipes at EVs (Tesla). I applaud your Audi (and click) funded efforts.

    "Yes, you would have to retrofit all Tesla superchargers to be compatible with the standard for DC fast-charging..." OR Audi could start using the modified Mennekes standard that Tesla has utilized, dragging other automakers with them. It's just a better plug design than the awkward CHAdeMO or CCS plugs. Maybe Audi could start building Superchargers that look different and have Audi's name on it, and Teslas could charge there at a price and vice versa.

    "If you want to go someplace, you just stop after 300-800 miles at almost any street corner in America..."
    Who drives that much without stopping periodically to take breaks, stretch their legs, use the bathroom, let the kids burn off some energy and use the bathroom, walk the dog and let it use the bathroom, see the sights and roadside attractions, take pictures of random stuff, make memories, gas up (or charge up) buy food, drinks, snacks, souvenirs, etc.?

    I would argue that most people when on a long road trip stop every couple of hours or so to do one or more of the above activities (~150-225 miles; 2-3 hrs at 75 mph). Adapating to a long range EV like the Tesla would not be difficult for most people unless they are used to only stopping when the tank gets close to empty (300-400 miles for most vehicles; admittedly, a lot of people do do this).

    Of course more range is always a plus, and when this Audi SUV hits the roads with its 95kWh battery circa 2018, Tesla should have a 105kWh battery pack (5% increase/yr per Elon Musk) enabling a >290 mile EPA range using the Model X P90D's 250 mile EPA range as a comparison point. The non-performance AWD versions would be more efficient, less expensive, and have an even higher range.

    Tesla's R&D also includes its Supercharger Network. With the liquid-cooled charging cables, they could potentially charge at 150kW. Most of the US's network is 120kW, and Germany's Superchargers are already at 135kW. Getting charge times down to 15-20 min. for an 80% charge is not far from reality.

    The affordable Tesla Model III sports sedan and crossover will have access to this network which will have to be greatly increased in density to deal with the greatly increased number of vehicles. I think that this is the vehicle that the Audi e-Tron will have to contend with: the fully optioned, highest range 2018 or 2019 Tesla Model III 5-seat crossover, not the Model X.

    One thing that seems to be overlooked is the fact that Tesla Motors can easily make adaptors for whatever L3 DC fast charging standard is built out, but the competition can't use the Superchargers unless Tesla allows it (tied to vehicle VIN). That means that Tesla's vehicles will be able to utilize all other chargers in addition to the free and widespread Supercharger Network. Audi's or whoever's efforts will also help Tesla. It's a win-win (unless of course they block Teslas from charging at their stations).

    Last thing: Who on earth regularly drives from L.A. to N.Y. in anything other than a semi truck?
    Sep 21, 2015. 11:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Model 3 A Threat To Oil Prices?  [View article]
    It's quite irrelevant what stars are made of. We live on earth. Hydrogen is extremely rare in its gaseous form on earth; so rare in fact, that none of it exists naturally. Sunlight can be utilized to charge an EV with approximately 400% more efficiency than the equivalent HFCV (hydrogen fuel cell vehicle). You can't even plug in an H2 vehicle. It consumes hydrogen just like an ICE-age car burns fuel. Also, HFCVs are slow, impractical due to the massive H2 tanks, and potentially dangerous in a crash. If a large truck hit an HFCV, there would be a very large explosion destroying everything nearby and making a crater.
    Sep 19, 2015. 06:45 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Porsche, Mercedes issue challenges to Tesla with planned electric cars  [View news story]
    The 2015 Tesla Model S's current EPA range already eclipses this 2019 Porsche's planned 310-mile NEDC range (as well as Audi's "SUV" concept and Mercedes' idea).

    There problem with the media is that they're easily duped by vague numbers. The European NEDC cycle usually gives ranges that are a full third (33%) higher than the EPA range which means that the Porsche's 310-mile range is really ~230 miles EPA range and the P90D current 268-mile EPA range (253 + 6%) is already at 356 miles NEDC. Tesla's Model S 90D has an NEDC rating of 381 miles, and their existing Roadster 3.0 with 330-mile EPA range would have a 439-mile NEDC range.

    Tesla is already superior to Porsche's impractical but gorgeous 4-seat supersaloon concept in acceleration and range right now. Tesla will improve much more between now and 2019.

    I really hope that Porsche builds it because the more EVs there are, the better. I know that it will have much better handling and trackability than the Model S because it's a Porsche. It will probably win many comparisons (with Tesla's 2015 Model S) because of things like interior quality and handling prowess. But that doesn't really matter.

    Tesla is not a standing target. With every Tesla comes free Supercharging at Tesla's widespread Supercharging network, something Porsche can only hope and dream about. Tesla is constantly improving the Superchargers as well with the latest update being liquid cooling which should enable much higher charge rates.

    The Model S was never designed for the track but for public roads and day-to-day life (aka 99-100% of the time). It makes a fantastic daily driver and a great family car with it's epic safety and lots of passenger and cargo space.

    Tesla's performance potential will be put on display in 2019 when their Next-gen supercar will debut with so called "Maximum Plaid Mode" which will enable a 0-60 mph time of <2.8 sec.
    Sep 15, 2015. 07:52 PM | 36 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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