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  • - Our Top Pick For 2016  [View instapost]
    Yes, exactly.
    Feb 14, 2016. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • - Our Top Pick For 2016  [View instapost]
    Yes indeed - the selloff has been relentlessly pushing shares lower past several weeks.

    All that has recently happened is that activist has confirmed he will be looking to oust BOD at the annual meeting, and another of the activist group members purchased 60,000 more shares at 86 and 89 cents three weeks ago.

    Earnings will be announced this coming week. I believe what they report is almost irrelevant unless they have pissed away all the cash - which I seriously doubt is the case.
    Feb 14, 2016. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Royal Caribbean Remains Significantly Overvalued  [View article]

    lowest debt/leverage. caters to more cost-conscious consumers, yet has mid/upper class offerings.

    as a result of these points, the shares are less volatile and will show more stability as opposed to RCL and NCLH which will spike/fall more harshly. much depends on your personal risk profile. after CCL, I would say RCL - because I've always believed NCLH has been wildly overvalued since the day of its IPO.
    Feb 14, 2016. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Negative Interest Rates Is A Buying Opportunity In U.S. Banks  [View article]
    No argument with you on European banks whatsoever, and have made my (extremely negative) views on Deutsche Bank very well known continually on other articles and news releases on SA since the shares were more than double the price they are today.

    My comment was specifically with regard to US banks.

    Feb 14, 2016. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Negative Interest Rates Is A Buying Opportunity In U.S. Banks  [View article]
    The Fed did not breath the term negative interest rates.

    Please watch some of the two days of testimony and see who continually brings up negative interest rates and how Yellen has her hands tied in the responses she has to give.
    Feb 14, 2016. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Negative Interest Rates Is A Buying Opportunity In U.S. Banks  [View article]
    Jason, here's the flaw in your post/argument. Banks are making good profit today and their balance sheets are the strongest they've been in a decade. Go and check Q4 earnings for the big banks and smaller regional and community banks. The community banks we hold have been posting earnings increases of 20%, 25%, and 30% year over year for Q4 and full year 2015. In general, they are all posting strong profits - up a good amount year over year. This has happened with zero interest rates - before the Fed raised rates in mid-December. So, banks, like the airlines have figured out how to make money even when the operating environment may not be optimal.

    If rates stay where they have been, the banks will still be profitable and the profits will slowly trend higher over time. If rates are raised, profits at banks will soar.

    The attack on bank stocks since the beginning of the year, and peaking early last week is a misunderstanding by most investors of the situation, magnified by the general weakness/lows we see in bank stocks annually at this time of year, again magnified by computer systems playing the markets. Maybe there is more turbulence coming over the next few weeks for bank stocks. However, I assure you, that the lows for the year in most all bank stocks will have been seen in February. Whether that has already happened, or we will see it in the next two weeks may be debatable at this point, but we have seen this play out over the past several years - even when there has not been the extreme attention being focused on the banks as this year.
    Feb 14, 2016. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Negative Interest Rates Is A Buying Opportunity In U.S. Banks  [View article]
    Agreed, negative interest rates are not in our future and make no sense. I've been taking advantage of the weakness in banks we follow picking up cheap shares that have sold off irrationally.

    I watched the two days of Yellen's testimony and as most of the "questioning" was centered on politicians' own agendas, so too was the continued questioning surrounding negative interest rates. If you gained an understanding of how Yellen addressed ALL questions, you had an understanding that she was unable to come out and directly say NO to any questions they pose. Just like every politician, she played the game letting the constituent feel as though they got their questions answered with the respondent addressing their personal concern, when in reality it had absolutely no possibility of taking place. Again, you had to be watching the sessions to hear the types of questions they were asking, her demeanor as she answered, and being able to interpret the answers she was giving. It was entirely the politicians continually bringing up negative rates and "the possibility" attempting to take the focus off of, or slow the rate of coming increases. Clearly the politicians got their desired results as rates went lower in the market. As I mentioned elsewhere - yesterday, reviewing my portfolio, what jumped out at me was that half of my boatload of laddered CDs were priced ABOVE face value!

    Reviewing some historical indicators, I'm beginning to come around to the belief that it may be the case that we are on the verge of a new phase of expansion. This is clearly a contrarian view at this time as negativity is quite I'm really not surprised I am beginning to come to this realization.

    If you understand that we have NEVER had a recessionary period preceded by low oil prices (only at the back end of high prices), combine with declining unemployment, a recession in earnings, low interest rates, you can begin to back into the theory that what we are really seeing is not the economy/markets on the verge of plunging, but rather gathering steam preparing for launch - the past 9 months was really the recessionary period and we have been in a bear market since May highs. I expect this latest move of longer term interest rates moving lower is going to give another boost to the auto and housing sectors over the next 3 to 6 months. Banks are going to see higher volumes of loan business while continuing to pay nothing on deposits.

    This is an interesting scenario, and suggests the Fed needs to remain vigilant and prepared to raise rates further because should growth pick up, the economy could overheat and we could see earnings and inflation come back much more quickly/powerfully than anticipated. This would dovetail with many economist views that we are not heading into a recession, and analyst views that the back half of 2016 will have markets moving higher.
    Feb 14, 2016. 04:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon Taking Over The World?  [View article]
    Ptatty, thanks for your inputs and thoughts...again, we'll see. I believe Mathrani's statements were likely based on what he believed resulting from discussions they've had. He slipped and said something he was not authorized to an Apple supplier making a statement about a coming product. Tailor the purpose and scale however you like - it is Amazon's implementation of a bookstore chain. I believe that in time, Mathrani's statement/estimate will be close to the reality.
    Feb 14, 2016. 03:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Royal Caribbean Remains Significantly Overvalued  [View article]
    Excellent start to finish.

    Thank you for highlighting the GAAP vs. non-GAAP issues - I have been extremely critical of non-GAAP abusers. Too many investors are simply oblivious to it and just accept whatever number they are spoon fed.
    Feb 13, 2016. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon Taking Over The World?  [View article]
    Gary, actions are louder than words - it's a fact that Amazon is already opening bookstores - physical bookstores. There is one in Seattle, and they are now hiring for a La Jolla or San Diego location. There will be more.
    Feb 13, 2016. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon Taking Over The World?  [View article]
    Amazon has already indicated what one of its next acts is - physical bookstores!

    Your jaw just has to drop on this ... spend 2 decades operating at a loss putting every mom-and-pop independent bookstore out of business, watch as Border's and other chains go under, and as B&N is on its deathbed, tell the world that you will now become THE brick-and-mortar bookstore chain!
    Feb 13, 2016. 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aeropostale Executes Spring 2016: Too Little Too Late?  [View article]
    What is telling/important about Sycamore unloading their entire position, is that they were the ones who put out the public letter stating that the shares were worth $7 (I believe when they were trading in the $3s or $4s). They have taken others private in the sector, and had plenty of opportunity to do the same here, and yet they did not.

    For those putting out arguments why they are buying ARO now, put yourselves in the position of Sycamore - 6.25 million shares at an average of about 20 cents - they accepted under $1.5 million when they could have used your logic...and simply bought a huge number of shares instead of folding, yet they sold.

    I continue to believe that ARO should serve as a poster child for all those companies repurchasing boatloads of their own shares...ARO repurchased a total of $1 billion worth at an average of $16/share - that is money completely torched. If they instead had that $1 billion cash today, though their business situation might not be much better, they would not be a company teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and would have a very nice cushion making their debt/credit situation less tenuous and provide significantly more time to attempt to work through their issues and have monetary means available to do major restructuring. Moral of the story - financial engineering and using buybacks to artificially support ones shares at a high price only works in the short-term...longer-term, fundamentals still dictate. Exxon and IBM are in the process of coming to that realization.


    Stock Repurchase Program

    We have the ability to repurchase our common stock under a stock repurchase program. The repurchase program may be modified or terminated by the Board of Directors at any time and there is no expiration date for the program. The extent and timing of repurchases will depend upon general business and market conditions, stock prices, opening and closing of the stock trading window, and liquidity and capital resource requirements going forward. During the first thirty-nine weeks of fiscal 2015 and 2014, we did not repurchase shares of our common stock under our stock repurchase program. Under the program to date, we have repurchased 60.1 million shares of our common stock for $1.0 billion. As of October 31, 2015, we have approximately $104.4 million of repurchase authorization remaining under our $1.15 billion share repurchase program.
    Feb 13, 2016. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kohl's: Expect Great Things From A Lower Share Price  [View article]
    It may be more than hyped up negative news. Retail is not the place to be investing at this time. During an economic recovery as we've had the past few years was the time - as consumers are spending and earnings were accelerating. Now whether we are headed for a recession (or possibly already in one) is being brought up. Approaching a recession is not when you want to be buying consumer discretionary companies because most will see lower sales, margins, and profits as customers become less willing to spend on non-essentials. During recessionary periods the deep discount retailers like dollar stores, Walmart, and similar do well as everyone is shopping the bargain bin. Though share repurchases do technically increase the value of each individual share, Kohls, like many other large cap names has to be questioned for the logic, buying up shares when the price was higher instead of letting them go to their appropriate lower level and then buying.

    Another Kohl's article a year ago pointed out the issue which should have been more of a red flag:

    In general, many large caps will be feeling some pain if/as earnings do not grow. Spending lots of cash on share buybacks has historically proven to be a poor use of company funds, yet this is what an extraordinary number of large corporations did over the past two years attempting to artificially keep their shares at high levels. The most visible ones who got an early start on this include Exxon and IBM. Having had big buyback plans going for years they both bought significant amounts annually. Now with share prices well off highs, net earnings still lower, and a more difficult business environment, it now begs the question of if it was an appropriate use of cash? The extraordinary example I like to point to with regard to buybacks is Aeropostale ($ARO)...during their buyback years they repurchased $1 billion worth of shares at an average of $16, and today they are trading below 20 cents with the company on the verge of bankruptcy. This should serve as an example of why companies should not go wild with big share buybacks as loudmouth "activists" like Carl Icahn whine that companies with big cash hoards should be repurchasing lots of shares. They should be using it to grow the business, not artificially inflate/sustain the shares at a high valuation.

    Also don't let what appears to be a relatively high dividend in this environment sway your review of Kohl's, because the earnings/growth is going to be more of an issue when it comes to the share price. The shares are going to feel heavy downward pressure over the coming six months...seeing them in the low $30s or even high $20s is a real possibility.
    Feb 13, 2016. 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pro-Dex Has Finally Turned The Corner And Could Be Worth Multiples Of Its Current Price When The Market Takes Notice  [View article]
    I believe this quarter represented the turning of the corner - the results were extremely good and CEO comments were very optimistic on the outlook. Regardless of the amount, I think we can expect quarterly profits going forward with the costs now under very good control. With the low share count, it does not take a whole lot of raw profit to move the EPS needle. Top line is likely going to be in the $15 to $20 million range for the year. Operating expenses are very lean now and so the bulk of increase to gross profit is going to find its way to the bottom line.

    With the new products I'm very confident that over the next few quarters we'll see the backlog increase a decent amount.

    Should shares return to their recent trading range below $2.50, it will be a great opportunity to pick up cheap reason why company should not be able to post full year profit in the 20 to 25 cents/share range.
    Feb 13, 2016. 01:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plumas Bancorp - 50% To 100% Undervalued Today  [View instapost]
    Thanks Philip.

    This has been a developing story over the past couple years and the market is simply ignoring it. The shares have really not moved over the past year or so, yet the earnings are accelerating with PE now a good amount below 8...have to chalk it up to the low float and thin trading coupled with an impatient investing public. It may take an interested suitor making an offer to extract the appropriate valuation from the shares. But, that will come too if the shares do not move higher.

    So long as the insiders keep picking up shares periodically, and they keep posting really good results, I can wait.
    Feb 12, 2016. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment