Seeking Alpha

Insider-Alerts

Insider-Alerts
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Insider-Alerts' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why I'm Buying Aeropostale [View article]
    Any comments on the just posted Q2 results?

    How about the stock price of 92 pennies?

    It doesn't get better from here.

    "I feel the company is well positioned to beat Q2 guidance and return to profitability in Q3 and Q4."

    Not going to happen Zach. They missed estimates and here's what the company says on Q3:

    Third Quarter Guidance
    For the third quarter of fiscal 2015, the Company expects operating losses in the range of $19.0 to $25.0 million, which translates to a net loss in the range of $0.30 to $0.38 per diluted share. The effective tax rate for the third quarter is projected to be approximately 4.0%. This outlook excludes the impact of any store impairments or accelerated store closing costs which may be identified, and consulting fees.

    FeelTheHeat2:
    "In short I don't see how a company with $300M of liquidity and a $1.8B annual sales base is a quarter or two from bankruptcy."

    I don't know that I said they were a quarter or two from bankruptcy - just that they are on the path to bankruptcy and the next two quarters would also be stinkers.

    At Jan 31 they had $151 million cash, today they have $86 million. With the expected losses they will likely blow through that remaining cash within 9 months. Debt today is $142 million. So, they will be in fund raising mode again very shortly and it will likely come in the form of convertible debt.

    http://tinyurl.com/nvb...
    According to the Morgan Stanley report, “Management is hoping for a 2H15 turnaround, but we think it is unlikely ARO can earn a profit again.” However, Greenberger believes that even in the optimistic scenario that sales stabilizes, Aeropostale was unlikely to return to profitability, given its meaningful SG&A deleverage. With its lean cost structure, there does not appear to be room for the company to make any significant expense cuts.

    I reiterate what I said in my first comment:
    "Now, there will certainly be opportunities for short-term trading of the shares for 25 cent and 50 cent moves which are a significant percentage of the current share price. However, if you happen to buy at the wrong time, you could simply be at the high-end of a continued spiral lower."
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Century Bancorp - 50% Undervalued [View instapost]
    8/26/2015 - Filler buys 202 shares @ $40.19

    http://1.usa.gov/1NV7wn7
    Aug 26, 2015. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Century Bancorp - 50% Undervalued [View instapost]
    8/25/2015 - Filler buys 335 shares @ $39.94

    http://1.usa.gov/1WR0A0z
    Aug 25, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Century Bancorp - 50% Undervalued [View instapost]
    8/24/2015 - Filler buys 2153 shares @ $38.69

    http://1.usa.gov/1hDeJ1e
    Aug 24, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Century Bancorp - 50% Undervalued [View instapost]
    8/24/2015 - Insider-Alerts buys 100 shares @ $38.6435
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Sell-Off Is A Gift [View article]
    biobat - the only reason why park attendance grew during the depths of the last recession is because they were giving enormous discounts to get people to go. I know this first hand.

    In a recession everyone moves down the ladder a rung. We also know this, as during the last recession Walmart thrived - because your upper-upper middle class folks became cost conscious.
    Aug 24, 2015. 06:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Sell-Off Is A Gift [View article]
    What happens with Star Wars or any single film or project has no bearing over where the stock may trade over the next 30 or 40 years. The comments are getting illogical. As Charbon says below, has everyone got such a short-term memory?

    You seriously don't believe DIS shares could trade at $50 in the next three or four decades?

    Again, any prudent/objective investor would acknowledge that any stock he owns could go to zero.
    Aug 24, 2015. 04:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Sell-Off Is A Gift [View article]
    biobat - we'll have to disagree with who the clientele is and what happens during a recession.
    Aug 23, 2015. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Sell-Off Is A Gift [View article]
    "I don't see DIS getting anywhere near $50 in my lifetime, unless they split."

    An objective investor would never make such a comment - for any stock.

    Twice since 2000 Disney shares fell 50% or more. The probability of it happening is likely not extremely high, but to say it won't get anywhere near $50 in your lifetime seems like a silly thing to say.

    If there were a lifetime $50 put option for DIS, I'd be inclined to purchase it.
    Aug 23, 2015. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.G. Wentworth Company's (JGW) CEO Stewart Stockdale on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Dan, your first paragraph is exactly right.

    I think there are some businesses that have such strong brand recognition and a positive image that they can successfully leverage it to their advantage. Berkshire Hathaway is a great example. A year or two ago Berkshire was unheard of in real estate. Today I see their signs on a good number of properties in my area.

    I don't think the J. G. Wentworth name or image is conducive to customers flocking to their new services/products.

    I'm simply speaking from past experience when companies take this type of action. It most often is a sign of weakness and attempting to distract attention from the real problem.
    Aug 23, 2015. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.G. Wentworth Company's (JGW) CEO Stewart Stockdale on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Dan - it is broken.

    Home mortgages? Prepaid Visa Cards? They're running around like chickens with their heads cut off. It's an admission that the original business is failing.
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Sell-Off Is A Gift [View article]
    biobat - history does not support your view.
    Aug 23, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares Of Intermap Are Poised To Triple [View article]
    platonic - http://www.tokyojoe.com - not as over-the-top as he was 15 years ago, but he is still running his show..."having won the trust of a lot of investors"

    http://1.usa.gov/1WLffKy
    Aug 22, 2015. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Sell-Off Is A Gift [View article]
    ssfranny - the difference is how much higher ESPN fees are in comparison to other cable channels that are bundled.

    The NFLX point was brought up 3 years ago when the shares were hammered to $50 (pre-split - 1/14 today's price). Only an insignificant price increase since then yet they have successfully produced a number of in-house titles, paid more for content, and their subscriber count is increasing more rapidly than ever. That is the key difference from ESPN - people are opting in to NFLX, today, you don't opt-in to ESPN. The business models are different.
    Aug 22, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Sell-Off Is A Gift [View article]
    Disney insiders NEVER buy shares - they only sell. If Iger steps up and buys shares with cash out of his own pocket in the open market, I'd view that as extremely significant.
    Aug 22, 2015. 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,117 Comments
1,177 Likes