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  • EnviroStar: Value Investors May Want To Take Money Off The Table [View article]
    and glad I sold at $5 - nearly 4 times the price when this author suggested people sell...not to mention the big fat dividends along the way as well.

    even at $2.77 today, author was very wrong.
    Sep 15 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere & Co: A Cyclical Company [View article]
    At this point I agree the writing is essentially on the wall and there are some leaner years coming. Of the big boys in the sector, with Deere being the most highly leveraged, they are likely in a tougher situation.

    However, your numbers indicate that profits will simply be down, not disappearing. Should/as shares fall, Deere as well as the peers/competitors are likely to begin repurchasing shares so the pain is not as bad. Your numbers deal with EPS as opposed to actual raw dollar earnings. As a result, and quite likely similar for analysts who are beginning to jump on this theme, things will probably not be as bad on a per share basis.

    These companies still have good amounts of cash, and they are and will still be making good profits.

    Lastly, it's fairly well known that CAT and DE are cyclical to the point where they are leading indicators for the economy in general. This has historically been the case for a long time. If we accept that point, the current bull market is likely on its last legs.
    Sep 15 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Building A Short Position In Bonds [View article]
    Interest rates are going higher next year - it is a near certainty at this point. Now, when exactly that begins and how long the process continues is anyone's guess, but to say it's 5 years too early to think about now is highly likely an incorrect reading of the situation.

    I very much like what the author is proposing. I've decided to follow a similar approach - I bought some TBF this morning and will add to my position every 8 weeks or so.
    Sep 11 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buyer Beware: Image Sensing Systems Has Nothing To Do With Body-Worn Cameras [View article]
    "Shorting a stock before issuing a hit piece is called market manipulation."

    Is it any different than Mike Arnold buying ISNS shares before issuing his articles on the company? Absolutely no difference at all. The author believed the shares were overvalued. The author did his research. The author spoke with the company. The author disclosed his position at the very beginning and then justified his thesis. There is no difference whatsoever compared to what Mike did, other than Mike presented the case where he believed shares were undervalued at $4 and $2, and GeoTeam believed they were overvalued at $9. You have a problem with that? Or just upset that you bought the shares having no knowledge of the company or concept of any valuation and lost money as a result?

    What short and distort? The company doesn't do body cameras - that's a fact. The shares were bid up specifically because of an incorrect argument that they did. You think shares were bid up triple and four times the price a few days earlier for some other reason? If so, please enlighten me.
    Sep 11 06:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buyer Beware: Image Sensing Systems Has Nothing To Do With Body-Worn Cameras [View article]
    bazooooka - this is a very common occurrence recently, not only with these companies in the video/camera space, but lots of random low-float issues. Similar to many in this space, I've seen others being bid up on huge volume compared to their float or daily volume on absolutely no news. I'm seeing message boards and Twitter feeds simply pumping these low float issues turning it into a new fast-play casino game. It really makes you sick to see it happen. However, if you don't already own the shares when this new kind of pump takes place, it's best not to be pulled into it because when it ends, shares are likely to be where they started, if not lower. No telling when the rug gets pulled out from under you, but it will be. If you do already own shares when you see it come, best to sell into it, take your profits and then don't come back until volume settles back to the norm.

    Though it's entirely possible shares were undervalued, certainly not to the point where they should be three or four times higher for no reason, or that all of a sudden so many people see the value. I equate it to what we saw in 2000, when there was a point where people would just search for certain keywords in company profiles based on the hot news of the day...usually biotechnology related. Almost 15 years later and things have not changed very much.

    I think this is indicative of a tiring bull market...people are simply gambling - this isn't investing.

    Anyhow, for real investors, the message is to proceed cautiously when you see this.
    Sep 11 06:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buyer Beware: Image Sensing Systems Has Nothing To Do With Body-Worn Cameras [View article]
    So, if ISNS was never about body cameras, what do you attribute the 300% increase in share price to over the couple days last week?
    Sep 10 05:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buyer Beware: Image Sensing Systems Has Nothing To Do With Body-Worn Cameras [View article]
    Ok, I'm watching, are you?
    Sep 10 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Building A Short Position In Bonds [View article]
    Very good/timely article and the correct conclusion and investment approach. I think most all (astute) investors understand that interest rates will be going up and portfolios should be adjusted seeing it coming on the near/mid-term horizon.

    Thanks for identifying these funds/ETFs - just what I was looking for.
    Sep 10 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why DryShips Looks Ripe For A Turnaround [View article]
    As has always been the case with DryShips, (potential) investors need to ask themselves one very basic question - Does the CEO have all shareholder's best interests in mind or just his own? I don't think there has ever been any doubt as to the answer to the question.
    Sep 10 08:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer: You Won't Fool Me Twice [View article]
    Yes - thanks to the Wyeth acquisition in 2009, this was how a chunk of the purchase amount was "raised" - by reducing the dividend by 50%. Just one of the brilliant moves by Kindler.
    Sep 7 10:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer: You Won't Fool Me Twice [View article]
    Based on Pfizer's history of big acquisitions, any big acquisition is likely to be a big mistake. Pfizer needs to concentrate on growing its business organically, focusing on its own R&D and drug pipeline, and going to town acquiring small promising companies with novel drugs and R&D that can benefit from the strength of what Pfizer can bring to the table. We've been long-time Pfizer shareholders, lived through the fiasco of the Kindler years, and without question, the company is the poster child for corporate/shareholder value destruction.

    The metrics I always point to in this situation is that since 2000, Pfizer has made big acquisitions totalling roughly $250 billion (that I know of). Today, the total market cap of the company is roughly $190 billion and carrying almost $40 billion in debt.

    Pfizer needs to stop playing games looking for ways to do financial engineering and get back to business, real business.
    Sep 7 09:21 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble Is In Cash, Not Stocks [View article]
    That doesn't mean that by definition the equity markets will go down. Again, more sellers than buyers does not mean that the market or any individual stock will go down.
    Sep 6 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble Is In Cash, Not Stocks [View article]
    "Since interest rates were very low starting in 2008 we have until 2021 for a very low rate environment."

    So it's your belief that history has to identically repeat itself?
    Sep 6 05:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Attractive Entry Point As Biomerica Returns To Growth And Is Still Trading Cheap [View article]
    Good continued coverage Brian.

    I'd also like to add as a point of interest for those who follow insider late March, CEO, CFO, and President all exercised options at 60 cents/share and did not sell the underlying shares - they continue to hold them. Though not for a huge number of shares, it does have good implications that nobody is selling any shares even though they trade above levels where the insiders were acquiring.

    Beyond that, things appear to be rebounding very favorably for the company. Further, there are many kickers out there that can create positive surprises going forward - for example announcement of multiple BMRA products being sold by "Multinational Pharmaceutical Company With Over $40 Billion in Sales" (I believe this is Merck) , and then the IP/Patents for new products.

    I was very surprised by the weakness in the shares this week following the earnings announcement the prior Friday after market close. Overall the earnings were very, very good showing continued/rapid strengthening in Asia, and the business overall. I'm taking the opportunity to acquire shares with any weakness - extremely good value at the current level.

    Management seems to be extremely conservative and reserved in its press releases. Once shares gain a following and are understood to be undervalued and low risk, hopefully more investors will be attracted to the story.

    Quick summary - company continues to be extremely cost effective in its operations, and as sales rebound, margins and the bottom line will follow.
    Sep 6 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble Is In Cash, Not Stocks [View article]
    "They always fall back to earth once the stimulus is removed. The stimulus is being gradually removed. Ergo, stocks will fall."

    How's that been working out for you over the past 6 months as the $85 billion per month stimulus has now mostly been removed and the US markets sitting at all-time highs having moved to current levels as the stimulus was removed?

    There is not a direct cause/effect relationship as you so simply conjecture. Many studies are in agreement that the stimulus has had little/no effect whatsoever...ergo, removing that "stimulus" should likewise have little/no effect.

    The markets will go up and down, that's guaranteed. I see increased interest rates as the catalyst which will temper the advances that we've seen. Whether that equates to a crashing market, or one that simply corrects and sees moderate gains going forward as the result of a soft landing is to be seen. Though either is possible, I personally lean towards the latter.
    Sep 6 09:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment