barcswine

Bear Markets Uncover Value

Sunspot activity and lack thereof in sunspot cyclical activity, and historical USA economic market ups and downs almost correlate perfectly for the last 200 years. By my reckioning the next UP cycle for stocks will begin in 2012. Doubt this Occam razor slashing cut? Check out the book by Dewey entitled CYCLES, and published by the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles" which he founded many, many years ago. At least it is an interesting diversion to contemplate while you are losing your shirt like I am in stocks like GE. That said, if I can hold out until 2013, I should be fine. .... I hope.

Wells Fargo Sham Revealed

Something stinks, and it is not in Denmark !!!!

Has Exxon Topped?

Perhaps. BUT given XOM's aggressive exploration budget at present with tons of CASH still left over in their kitty, and XOM now sniffing at DEVON as a takeover target, long term defined as the next 5 to 8 years, these old AAA country boys at XOM will see new highs in the years to come regardless of the price of oil. For conservative long term holders, not traders, XOM will prosper. I can foresee it at $140 a share by
2015 at the latest.

Watch for More Coming Biotech Acquisitions

PFE is the sleeper with its huge CASH hoard. Look for at least two unexpected buyout bids from this big cash cow to fill up the black hole in its new drug pipeline. Cheaper than new research; just buy up known biotech products already approved by using their cash to fund merger activity.

Is the U.S. Banking System Safe?

Where is a bank with "clean hands" in this financial debacle?
Once again, the American taxpayer will be the patsy.

Exxon Mobile: Do Record-Breaking Earnings Guarantee Higher Stock Prices?

Who ever said that Mr. Market was rational? XOM was a BUY yesterday; a BUY today; and will continue to be a BUY into the foreseeable future for conservative investors.

I am LONG on XOM, always have been, and will continue to be until such time as my XOM holdings pass to my grandchildren. Hopefully, they will NOT sell it, but just enjoy the investment ride as I have done for so many years now.

Technical Snapshot on the U.S Dollar

The US dollar is clearly undervalued; perhaps as much as 40% as I view it. The US economy is still the strongest in the world, and will stay that way long into the future as contrasted with the EU states which are now showing really serious signs of economic instability with the sole possible exception of Germany.

The EU leadership (Ha !) is in complete denial about how this weak and socialistic hodgepodge of member states really is; how weak the euro actually is; and how inferior the "nanny state" is compared with the good old American "can do" mentality and real democracy.

The recent NO vote on the Lisbon Treaty by Ireland is just another crack in the EU mentality that "big brother knows best." Road apples, I say.

I also bet that the EU will cobble together another treaty (Lisbon II, let us say) within 18 months or so, and force the Irish people to vote once again for that which they just turned down. And they call that democracy. Another HA !

But by that time, I will have left Ireland after residing here for the last 15 years, and returned to the USA where a vote counts for something more meaningful than it does in the EU, and where elected officials are not faceless and unaccountable as they are in the monster EU matrix posing as democratic.

Who knows, as the European press is now full of EU palaver about punishing Ireland for its NO vote, perhaps Ireland just might petition the USA for admission as its 51st state. Unlikely of course, but what a HOOT that would be.

Poor Taoiseach Brian Cowen, who now, has to explain to the EU bigwigs in Brussels next week what the Irish people meant by voting NO! There is only one explanation: NO means NO ! It also means "Feck off!" That is what I like about the Irish; Paddy is not as stupid as the EU leadership had assumed. Another Guinness, thank you !!!!


I predict that the EU chickens will come home to roost within 18 months, and then the dollar will once again be the safe haven it has historically been for the last 100 years. Hence, I am truly bullish on the USD.

Does Buy-and-Hold Work on Major Blue Chips?

My goodness is it possible that I shot myself in my left foot buying GE, and Exxon Mobil got my right foot, down the years long gone by, and didn't feel any pain ? By my calculations, dividends and splits included, I am way ahead of the game. But this financial pundit says I am wrong. Hmmm!
Sure beats me how unless I suffer from terminal dumbness.

The Second Wave of Bank Troubles

CASH is always KING when the ugly head of GREED becomes
apparent as the consequences of it are emerging now.

That said, even this financial crisis will eventually pass as such have in the past.

The FEDS need to pass financial "transparency" legislation to insure this kind of fiscal disaster never happens again; and if it does, those responsible go to prison for a long, long time.

Federal bailouts I guess are ok short term to keep the US economy on an even keel. However, very stiff Federal fines and long prison sentences are required to eliminate the kind of wholesale greed from adversely affecting the innocents (us) ever again.

Buffett's Latest Acquisitions Indicate Value In Financials

I am bullish on the market, and also on the U.S. dollar. Financial stocks may very well weaken further over the next 9 months, but quality financial stocks will recover fully and then some by late 2009 as will the housing market. The dollar will begin to reverse its downward trend by or before 10/08, and make a siginificant reversal by 4/09.

In short I am still long on the market, but being very selective at this time

Buffett's Latest Acquisitions Indicate Value In Financials

I am bullish on the market, and also on the U.S. dollar. Financial stocks may very well weaken further over the next 9 months, but quality financial stocks will recover fully and then some by late 2009 as will the housing market. The dollar will begin to reverse its downward trend by or before 10/08, and make a siginificant reversal by 4/09.

In short I am still long on the market, but being very selective at this time