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mamerritt

mamerritt
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  • LyondellBasell Now A Compelling Buy With 50% Upside [View article]
    Your answer is found in the article above. Competitive advantage is thought to be based in LNG (naptha) as a raw material. The thinking is that margins will be pressured as cost of oil drops, as competitors use more oil than LNG. Reality is that LYB has many advantages.

    My thinking is that this is a temporary market correction, that dividends will continue to increase ($.40, $.50, $.60, $70, ...) and that we might even see another special ($2.75 in 2012, $4.50 2011) in 2015. Target in $130 range seems very reasonable to me.

    Further, for tax purposes LYB is no longer foreign based. 6/2013 dividends were the last to be subject to to foreign (Netherlands) taxes.

    LONG LYB since 2011.
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Earnings Report Continues To Show Company's Strength [View article]
    Correct! As in "much ado about nothing".
    Jun 12, 2014. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: This 10%-Yielder Is On The Move [View article]
    That's likely a function of the current financial arrangement (or lack thereof) between Fidelity and Vanguard. Vanguard is famously stingy, operating for the benefit of its investors rather than for profit. From time to time, it is not possible to access certain Vanguard products from other brokerages.

    For what it's worth, we agree on many of your names. VWELX top holdings compliment your individual holdings well. I simply don't want the bonds at the moment, and hold most of their top names individually. BTW, you might want to take a look at CHD. It might fit your portfolio nicely.

    My overall thesis includes the fact that, in addition to consuming things that aren't good for them and the consequences of that, humans will continue to rape the earth for metals and hydrocarbons, and that they will need to transport and refine those things. From time to time, I also make a large conviction bet, which brings us to SDRL.

    All the best.
    Jun 5, 2014. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: This 10%-Yielder Is On The Move [View article]
    The Wellington Fund (VWELX and VWENX) is NOT closed.

    The only Vanguard stock funds currently closed to new investors are Capital Opportunity Adm (VHCAX) and PRIMECAP (VPMAX & VPCCX). VHCAX was temporarily opened for a short time last year, and it likely won't open again for quite some time.

    I like Wellington and its sister fund Wellesley (VWINX & VWIAX) a great deal. But in the current climate, not a big fan of bonds. My dad was a child of the great depression and grew up thinking stocks were exotic, and that bonds were the only sane investment. He was constantly shedding his employee stock options (large US consumer goods conglomerate) which would have ultimately made him tens of millions.

    In a massive departure, I got him into Wellesley in the early 1980s and it was very, very good to him. Nothing fancy, but it grinds out respectable returns year after year with very little drama.
    Jun 5, 2014. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: This 10%-Yielder Is On The Move [View article]
    TR, thank you for publicizing your LEAP stance - it inspired me to crunch some numbers and snap up contracts at $35, $38 and $40. Overall up 92% on today's quotes.

    Now I have to work out when to sell or execute them. A fine mess I find myself in. :-)
    Jun 4, 2014. 03:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: This 10%-Yielder Is On The Move [View article]
    That's quite a feat, Goalkick. Factoring reinvested dividends, the adjusted share price on 29 May 2011 was $27.17 and today's high at the moment is $38.50. To reap .0014% over that period, one would have to engage in spectacularly poorly timed trades. I'm actually interested, not being facetious. How did you arrive at that number?
    May 29, 2014. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: This 10%-Yielder Is On The Move [View article]
    Would you please point us to the SEC filing that supports your assertion of insider selling? Or is this just another reckless and unfounded remark?

    Excluding Total Return Swaps (TRS) transactions between related parties, recent transactions include:

    11 MAR 2013 purchased 150,000 shares
    29 AUG 2013 purchased 300,000 shares
    20 NOV 2013 purchased 300,000 shares
    23 APR 2014 purchased 300,000 shares

    These appear to be transactions to replenish the treasury shares lost to employee compensation.
    May 29, 2014. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: This 10%-Yielder Is On The Move [View article]
    Stop that, TR. It would be nice to have a few more months of ridiculously deflated share and call contract prices. I don't need any clarity. The noise has been quite useful. :-)
    May 28, 2014. 11:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: This 10%-Yielder Is On The Move [View article]
    The hysteria since late November 2013 has been a catalyst for what I expect will be a top 10 lifetime investment, and I've been at this for a long time.

    I'm now super overweight SDRL and control an additional 25,000 shares at $35, $38 and $40 (JAN/2016). The calls alone have seen a 35% return.

    I would be buyer at $45. $32.40 was madness, $37.50 is stupid. Buy while you have the chance, even if tomorrow sees another bump (AH up 1%). The weak jumped off this train while the folks with steel balls kept buying. There is a lot of upside here, it's nowhere near too late.

    I cannot identify another investment in today's market that is more compelling than a long SDRL 'family' position.

    Long SDRL, SFL and NADL
    May 27, 2014. 06:35 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Path To Problems [View article]
    The recent negative noise surround SDRL has been a blessing to the bulls, so I really don't mind it at all. Between the dividends, trading around a core position, and the time premiums of covered calls, this is my all-time favorite stock over a lifetime of investing.

    However, I despair at the recent plunge in the quality of the research and analysis here at SA. Those of us who understand SDRL might consider reducing the fervor of our responses - they add to the page views, and essentially contribute to the trend of additional, ill-informed articles. Perhaps we simply ignore? This article isn't worth anyone's time, as it adds no value beyond countless articles previously published, and detracts from informed discussion due to inaccuracies and omissions.
    Feb 19, 2014. 05:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill signs Mexican rig deals worth $1.8B [View news story]
    The USD $1.8b contract is old news, and works out to an average day rate of roughly 164,000.

    The new news here is the SeaMex deal, which is typical JF and frankly, was expected. Consider this another "drop down" vehicle where control and cash flow is maintained, and a sale of assets in approximately 2Q14 of 488 million will be recorded.

    We need another round of hysteria. We need an article explaining how Sevan Rig 4, West Tellus, Prospero, Vigilant, Ariel, Tucana, Telesto and Cressida aren't yet under announced contracts for at least portions of 2014, and why JF is suddenly going to fail to get those contracts done.

    Shaking loose some more cash this week, so I'd appreciate it if the bears and shorts would do their thing again.
    Feb 18, 2014. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will North Atlantic Drilling IPO Bring To SeaDrill? [View article]
    Correct. I apologize for the omission; it's an important distinction. I should have written that SDRL set up SDLP to act as an MLP as a financial management device.
    Jan 30, 2014. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will North Atlantic Drilling IPO Bring To SeaDrill? [View article]
    SDLP is a master limited partnership (MLP) controlled by SDRL. When SDRL drops assets down to SDLPL, it records a sale of assets, yet it controls the management contract for the sold rig, and it controls the majority of the future revenue. This is yet another leveraging tactic, and the first use of an MLP in this industry. Expect others in the industry to follow suit. The financial management at SDRL is world class.

    SDRL dropped assets in Q4 and the announced EPS will skyrocket when they report at the end of February 2014. Expect another dividend increase, which will freak people out and cause another round of dividend sustainability and debt articles on SA.

    I've said it before on SA, and I'll say it again: If you are struggling to wrap your head around SDRL, and its debt and dividends, just think of it as an energy REIT. They buy and leverage fabulously expensive rigs, have a quality tenant list with rental contracts well into the future (providing an excellent view of future cash flows), and they spin off cash to owners. Oh, and by the way, unlike real estate projects which can be built quickly, these rigs can only be built over periods of years by a limited number of shipyards. This choke on supply is a very important factor.

    The stated objective of SDRL - in their mission statement - is to provide shareholders with increasing dividends. This is NOT an American run company with conservative dividend policies. This company's long term income is not dependent on short term moves in the spot price of oil and gas, but traders link it to the energy sector that way. This provides the intelligent investor with opportunities, and the current opportunity is incredible.
    Jan 30, 2014. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Has A High Debt Load But May Not Be As Risky As It Appears [View article]
    More likely that SDRL would continue to use the MLP (SDLP) for that purpose, but it is possible.

    Fredrikson has a history of using multiple financial levers for the purposes of managing debt; this is an important one.
    Jan 17, 2014. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Third Quarter Results Show A Company Well Positioned For Future Growth [View article]
    Nothing personal here. You're tossing about a highly charged term that in investment circles is often pejorative. I sought clarification and you provided. Thank you.

    As I thought, your use of the term here is more speculative than the investment being discussed. :-)

    1. engaged in, expressing, or based on conjecture rather than knowledge.
    "discussion of the question is largely speculative"
    synonyms: conjectural, suppositional, theoretical, hypothetical, putative, academic, notional, abstract
    tentative, unproven, unfounded, groundless, unsubstantiated
    "any discussion is largely speculative"
    2. (of an investment) involving a high risk of loss.
    synonyms: risky, hazardous, unsafe, uncertain, unpredictable;

    Today, MAIN is not a speculative investment by most reasonable standards. It would have been a stretch to call it that in 2011. Today, near laughable. It's a highly regarded dividend income stock. You invested wisely, not speculatively.

    “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” - Benjamin Graham
    Dec 31, 2013. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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