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  • Think the PIGS Are in Trouble? These 7 U.S. States Could Be Heading for Something Worse [View article]
    maybe. in the USA you have at least for now a common language which allows labor to move to places where it "costs less." New York is not on your list but it's demographics are horrible. It's property markets look good but that's because they never went up in price save for the the City where they are now completely collapsing. Europe needless to say is even a greater disaster! I think the inscrutable banker might have a say in this now that they have access to the biggest balance sheet in the world in the form of the US Treasury. Right now we've had a lot of speculation in commodities haven't we! How's that for the "national interest"! Perhaps 90% unemployment is what the government is looking for!!! Point being there is no higher authority than the government right now they're looking pretty retarded. that's called politics and that's what we've elected for a President--a politician who is a retard. Don't underestimate his ability to get re-elected! He has some good company and I ain't talking either George Bush! Point being we have another opportunity to put the folks back to work with the collapse in Europe. Energy companies don't hire a lot of people (which probably goes a long way towards explaining Exxon's acquisition of XTO which is a rather peculiar buy relative to its business) so higher oil prices doesn't solve that problem. we could get the "one way trend" (namely up) and hope that wall street can "keep it up" such that they can "sop up some of the labor slack." doubtful. needless to say Wal-Mart is laying off people, a stock that i think would be a possible short candidate which is something i never do but understand why some people do. in short "there's just no answer." the price of oil just is and i think the alternative, nationalizing oil companies, is truly scary--but hey, i'm a believer that uncle sam will order you to start wearing your underwear outside your pants in order to fly so who knows!
    Feb 6, 2010. 02:18 PM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation? [View article]
    the American Bovespa. I couldn't agree more. Like the analysis especially because its understandable. If I have to listen to one more conspriracy theory of equity valuation i'm really gonna start to question my own sanity.
    Aug 22, 2009. 10:18 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Redistribution Is Necessary (But It's Not Enough) [View article]
    Are you comparing this time to World War II? We had 12 million men under arms and now we can't even field a force of a million without bankrupting the nation. More to the point the recession at the end of World War II makes this one look like paddy cake. Don't think that because you have a 90% tax rate on income you've solved the business cycle. Indeed i think any sentient human should be able to agree that it's an axiom now that the problem is taxes and raising them solves no problem whatsoever. Now of course "revenues" matter. Don't tell me YOU'RE feeling undertaxed, tho. In other words "redistribution" is just a code word for "raise that other guys taxes." Boy, you're a politician's dream come true! "Kill that rich guy over there and sell the country out for your own personal interests and that voter over there not only won't even care he won't even get it." Keep up the quality insights...
    Feb 21, 2010. 09:59 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun [View article]
    "fundamentals for oil are still bearish"? something tells me you're not to type to short it, tho. the problem with the market IS oil because IT KEEPS GOING UP IN SPITE OF THE SO CALLED RECESSION. The question in this market is BRUTALLY simple: is 20% inflation worth Dow 10000? According to YOUR debt monetizing Fed chief the answer is "absolutely yes." So sure this market was "scary" to me going into the month of January not because "the fundamentals" aren't sound but because the big movers were all commodity stocks while the bank/tech/info plays were all stagnating. this has hyper-inflation written all over it which OF COURSE is bad for equities, but OF COURSE is even WORSE for all other assets. To me the stock market and equities are just like Winston Churchill said about democracy, "the best of the worst forms of government." In other words and as the crisis of 2008 showed, with equities you still have to pay your bills as a business. (which you think is good, right? or maybe you don't either. obviously Wall Street doesn't because why else demand bailouts "or else." I mean not even in the Great Depression did Washington bail out Wall Street!) Insofar as debt is concerned, well that's "government business" which means there's no accounting for the stuff nor will there ever be insofar as the government/union complex can bankrupt the country in order to "prevent" bankruptcy while creating it. In other words this is the economics of Vietnam where "we had to destroy the country to save it." Needless to say no one will ever accuse democrats of being flag wavers let alone patriots.
    Jan 31, 2010. 02:39 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have You Seen M3 Lately? [View article]
    I did see a fine looking BMW M3 today.
    May 24, 2010. 02:43 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Crunch Coming [View article]
    Actually that interest rate is tax deductible so i wouldn't get too apoplectic over the rise in interest rates. the rise in property taxes however...and it goes a long way towards explaining the trillion dollar deficits, no? in other words the federal government is trying to prevent the home owner from having a zero added to his property tax bill. of course this is not going to crush America evenly--the hardest hit will be New York State with Mass/Connecticut/Vermo... right around the corner. they're going to get clobbered because they've been saddled with empty cities or even worse "city states." in other words this is a problem the tax code can't solve.
    Feb 22, 2010. 06:58 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Select Metal and Mining Stocks - Why It's Time to Buy [View article]
    interesting article. it is certainly not easier to "bail out governments than to bail out banks." one can quantify their risk with a bank. ever try and quantify one's risk with a government? in other words if it was easy Germany would already have bailed out Greece. Of course Portugal has already said "hey, remember we had an empire once." I think there are some real opportunities in the commodity space, but not nearly as big as in the financial space. if the euro blows up you could see commodities in a holding pattern all year (outside of energy) and be thankful for it. the problem for me with the industrial commodity space is oil. oil is the King and as the price of the goo keeps rising it makes investing in foreign countries riskier and riskier and they're the one's with all the copper, zinc, etc.. which they will have to sell in order to get the oil. with 12% unemployment and a flattened housing market in the US why invest abroad? it seems like the big money has already been made in the "outside the US" space.
    Feb 5, 2010. 11:25 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Exit for Bernanke [View article]
    interesting analytic. there are solutions but as Mark Knopfler once said, "How Long?" I hesitate to call the USA a single "economy." States have a lot more power than the current crop of Federalistas have any clue about. Bailouts of California, New York and New Jersey at the expense of the heartland? Doubtful. These boys are from Chicago which is a booming metropolis and back to Chicago they will go with a big old "whoops" between their eyes and more than a few "sorry about that". Bottom line is without George Bush there is no policy and our government is simply adrift--LOST as it were. The fact that something that was once cheap now becomes expensive does not necessary equate with the end of the world. We've had a government created train wreck and the train was carrying radioactive waste and certain states and cities will never recover from the disaster. that does not mean the rest of this nation can't recover. It certainly does not seem to mean at all that certain private enterprises have no value apparently! Not every guy succeeds in crushing the girl when he sets upon the path of saying "if i can't have her then nobody can" and sometimes its the guy who ends up crushing himself when he sets himself upon this path. let the suicide play out if that's what it is and we'll see "what's next." Should the President's paranoia trump reason then i think cause for concern is in order. amazingly, though, even that I think could be spun as good news at least in the short term! Methinks the Democrats ought beware of celebrating the possible death of a political party too loudly since it is apparently their own.
    Jul 26, 2009. 03:44 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the Silver Bubble Just Go 'Pop'? [View article]
    i didn't see Cullen saying he covered his short position nor that he's calling a bottom either. with no mention of Man Global either i give this headline an "F." Isn't the saying "there's no such thing as a bubble in precious metals, only pricing?" anywho--if equities follow suit i might have to change my mind.
    May 2, 2011. 12:09 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market in Precious Metals: Largest Gains Still Ahead [View article]
    I love it when no less than THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES decides "silver must die!" What else is "overpriced" in their view?? Interestingly..."not food"!!!! Needless to say "silver rallies the following day." As well as all other so called "hard assets." Of course "THAT INCLUDES PHUCKING COTTON."???!!!! Hard asset? How about we simply call it "an asset"--unlike say---CASH?????!!!!!
    Nov 10, 2010. 07:46 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fedspeak Friday: Volcker, Lacker and Ben at Bat [View article]
    Volker has warned. End of story.
    Sep 24, 2010. 05:58 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees and Baby Boomers: Remarkable Shift in Spending [View article]
    and of course the baby boomers are the retirees now so "they're done." it goes a long way towards explaining why bond rates are plunging while their value is soaring and more importantly "why you can kiss the American banking profits machine goodbye." In short "it's all about the largesse" when it comes to the most self-centered and least serving "generation" certainly since the 1890's. How interesting "they call themselves progressives" when "all they want is federal largesse." And who can blame them, no? Now on to the "next war they think we should lose" and just as interestingly "what Wall Street will do...." Talk about the banality of evil. Nothing if not predictable indeed!
    Aug 16, 2010. 01:22 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20: The New Ideological Divide [View article]
    Outcomes are for sissies! "Cry havoc and release the dogs of war" said some "clown" named Shakespeare. Surely you didn't think this was going to turn out any other way? Surely you all aren't SURPRISED.
    Jun 29, 2010. 09:58 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben’s Right: Fed Didn't Cause the Crunch, Securitization Did [View article]
    very rarely read an SA article from beginning to end anymore since it's all "sophistry" as one critic of Greenspan's speech called it. This is a major exception and should be an editor's choice. I couldn't agree more both with the data and history. The subtext of course is that we've got a bunch of jews from New York City doing it, but i guess you can't say that stuff anymore since "they're too busy destroying the country." Clearly there were many fellow travellers in Washington (two of whom will not run for re-election by the name of Chris Dodd along with Byron Dorgan of North Dakota. Guess you can only throw so many farmers and ranchers under the bus to justify your greed in the name of politics creed in Dorgan's case. In Dodd I guess it's just the whole state of Connecicut which he and his worthless father destroyed.) No this is an excellent piece that shows how the best solution is to eliminate pretty much every vestige of Federal largesse save for General Petraeus. The only thing this Government has succeeded in doing for over 50 years now is in making anything other than Barbados a liveable place. I hope they enjoy hell because Lord knows that's all they've ever intended on making during their time in this world.
    Jan 6, 2010. 01:44 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the Santa Claus Rally and Other Year-End, New-Year Indicators [View article]
    well we saw how "Sell in May and Go Away" worked. More and more this market is looking like Jack and Bean Stalk to me as a bull. The Devil get's his due and the evil that Ben Bernanke has perpetrated now get's "rewarded." I am not a short seller and believe it immoral to be as such but i have never seen such a cheapening of hope and ultimately of prosperity. Innovation can only go so far. Eventually we all have to produce. It's put up or shut up time. For all of us.
    Dec 25, 2009. 09:56 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment