sidney's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/46123/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175437-case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values?source=feed#comment-778710 778710 Thu, 26 Nov 2009 15:44:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174461-if-u-s-stopped-issuing-treasuries-would-it-go-broke?source=feed#comment-769450 769450 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:25:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174475-4-cheap-japanese-stocks?source=feed#comment-769102 769102 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:51:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174086-frontier-market-etfs-cant-handle-u-s-dollar-volatility?source=feed#comment-767442 767442 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:59:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172613-zuckerman-on-paulson-the-all-time-greatest-trade?source=feed#comment-759793 759793 Sat, 14 Nov 2009 00:52:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169494-homebuyer-tax-credit-update?source=feed#comment-734205 734205 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 13:17:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166939-china-s-huge-property-bubble?source=feed#comment-717508 717508 Fri, 16 Oct 2009 10:21:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164312-romance-stocks-no-matter-what-don-t-fall-in-love?source=feed#comment-700657 700657 Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:39:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164312-romance-stocks-no-matter-what-don-t-fall-in-love?source=feed#comment-700656 700656 I wonder if that is what they are attempting to do with Rulebreakers. Do they have a better articulated criteria for finding the next Romance stock? And do you have to wait for them to be a romance stock or try to catch them before they become a romance stock?]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:38:40 -0400 I wonder if that is what they are attempting to do with Rulebreakers. Do they have a better articulated criteria for finding the next Romance stock? And do you have to wait for them to be a romance stock or try to catch them before they become a romance stock?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144052-bogle-investors-getting-killed-in-etfs?source=feed#comment-553445 553445 Bottom line is that the mutual fund managers are not going to reallocate to cash when things get overheated and buy when they get oversold. Neither individual investors as a group or professional money managers have much success in "market timing". Mutual fund managers simply don't do it. They are so concerned with following their benchmark that when they get to much cash coming in that they can't invest fast enough they close their funds instead of letting the cash position build up for the rainy day where they could go on a parade buying stocks when their cheap or using that extra cash to meet the redemption from shareholders so they don't have to add additional price pressure by liquidating even more of the stocks that are down in price. The fear of under performance drives mutual fund managers from the long term asset allocation decisions to protect capital. When the crowd panics, individuals sell stocks, ETFs, hedge funds, and mutual funds. Prices collapse. This is THE time to buy and when markets are down 50% its a John Templeton generational moment to step up and buy as much as you can and borrow as much as you can to buy more.
The only vehicle I know of that might allow a manager to reallocate to cash might be a Closed End Fund. By being protected from the flows of Investors the CEF manager can go to cash and back without fear of under performance. Paramount is retaining the NAV of the fund so their fees go up. Consider Russian CEF that Mobius managed, I remember him once saying the risks are too high I've gone mostly into Cash, by doing so he avoided a big crash and could readily buy up bargains after the crash. I doubt an open end manager could have done this. I tend to think an ETF couldn't have done this either.
THE CEF provides the manager room to flex. CEFs also provide valuable financial behavior data(premium/discount) about how investors are willing to pay for a basket of assets relative to their worth. ]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 07:46:12 -0400 Bottom line is that the mutual fund managers are not going to reallocate to cash when things get overheated and buy when they get oversold. Neither individual investors as a group or professional money managers have much success in "market timing". Mutual fund managers simply don't do it. They are so concerned with following their benchmark that when they get to much cash coming in that they can't invest fast enough they close their funds instead of letting the cash position build up for the rainy day where they could go on a parade buying stocks when their cheap or using that extra cash to meet the redemption from shareholders so they don't have to add additional price pressure by liquidating even more of the stocks that are down in price. The fear of under performance drives mutual fund managers from the long term asset allocation decisions to protect capital. When the crowd panics, individuals sell stocks, ETFs, hedge funds, and mutual funds. Prices collapse. This is THE time to buy and when markets are down 50% its a John Templeton generational moment to step up and buy as much as you can and borrow as much as you can to buy more.
The only vehicle I know of that might allow a manager to reallocate to cash might be a Closed End Fund. By being protected from the flows of Investors the CEF manager can go to cash and back without fear of under performance. Paramount is retaining the NAV of the fund so their fees go up. Consider Russian CEF that Mobius managed, I remember him once saying the risks are too high I've gone mostly into Cash, by doing so he avoided a big crash and could readily buy up bargains after the crash. I doubt an open end manager could have done this. I tend to think an ETF couldn't have done this either.
THE CEF provides the manager room to flex. CEFs also provide valuable financial behavior data(premium/discount) about how investors are willing to pay for a basket of assets relative to their worth. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140169-what-use-is-economic-history?source=feed#comment-522263 522263 Thu, 28 May 2009 22:24:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133256-glaxosmithkline-witty-s-management-is-reason-for-optimism?source=feed#comment-480167 480167 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 21:09:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122169-china-s-latest-hunting-trip?source=feed#comment-402361 402361 The Republic of China went through the worst inflation 1948-49. In 1947, the highest denomination was 50,000 yuan. By mid-1948, the highest denomination was 180,000,000 yuan. The 1948 currency reform replaced the yuan by the gold yuan at an exchange rate of 1 gold yuan = 3,000,000 yuan. In less than 1 year, the highest denomination was 10,000,000 gold yuan. In the final days of the civil war, the Silver Yuan was briefly introduced at the rate of 500,000,000 Gold Yuan. Meanwhile the highest denomination issued by a regional bank was 6,000,000,000 yuan (issued by XinJiang Provincial Bank in 1949). After the renminbi was instituted by the new communist government, hyperinflation ceased with a revaluation of 1:10,000 old Renminbi in 1955.
Which Silver standard were you referring to? And how is hyper inflation any better than a great depression?]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 00:39:19 -0500 The Republic of China went through the worst inflation 1948-49. In 1947, the highest denomination was 50,000 yuan. By mid-1948, the highest denomination was 180,000,000 yuan. The 1948 currency reform replaced the yuan by the gold yuan at an exchange rate of 1 gold yuan = 3,000,000 yuan. In less than 1 year, the highest denomination was 10,000,000 gold yuan. In the final days of the civil war, the Silver Yuan was briefly introduced at the rate of 500,000,000 Gold Yuan. Meanwhile the highest denomination issued by a regional bank was 6,000,000,000 yuan (issued by XinJiang Provincial Bank in 1949). After the renminbi was instituted by the new communist government, hyperinflation ceased with a revaluation of 1:10,000 old Renminbi in 1955.
Which Silver standard were you referring to? And how is hyper inflation any better than a great depression?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114443-is-a-hard-landing-in-store-for-china-s-economy?source=feed#comment-355033 355033 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 20:23:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/110225-strong-rmb-yen-not-good-for-the-world?source=feed#comment-326614 326614 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 14:58:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92028-hard-times-in-hong-kong?source=feed#comment-241344 241344 Fri, 29 Aug 2008 00:14:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84481-chart-of-the-day-anatomy-of-a-bear-market?source=feed#comment-202618 202618 Thu, 10 Jul 2008 19:47:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72159-lessons-from-the-best-ever-hedge-fund-manager?source=feed#comment-150548 150548 ]]> Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:48:18 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71756-signs-that-foreclosures-may-be-peaking?source=feed#comment-147970 147970 Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:13:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/52515-buying-yahoo-ahead-of-the-alibaba-ipo?source=feed#comment-100907 100907 Sun, 04 Nov 2007 16:12:39 -0500