Peter Daskaloff

Market Believes in Economic Positives, We Remain Skeptical

I have a technical (chartist) observation, worth sharing.
The $USD index is in positive divergence according to a standard MACD oscillator, since early August.
The $SPX index is in negative divergence during the same period.
I examined charts as far as 10 years back, I couldn't find such coincidence.
This may indicate that money will move from stocks into bonds and the $USD for a while.

The Lunacy Surrounding AIG's Stock Price

Alright, let's see which are the best performing stocks lately, say since July 10.

-- STOCKS UP 100% OR MORE SINCE JULY 10 --

From the financials we can pick --

AIG, C, FRE, FNM, and LEH (yes, Lehman Bros) which went up 200% from $0.05 to $0.15 today.

Then come the commercial real estate (REIT's) --

MAC, DDR, CBL, to name a few big names, and of course wouldn't you guess it, The General Growth Properties which went bankrupt in the spring is now up 100%

Then come the home builders, whose stocks are up as if everybody's gonna buy a house for Christmas --

HOV, LEN, CBL, and SPF to name a few.

Yes, indeed, the market appears to be getting ready for Lehman's anniversary festivities and celebrate it with a BANG!


.

Speculative Trading Indicates Rally Losing Steam

Today Lehman's stock went up 200%. Yes, that same Lehman (LEH) which went bankrupt a year ago.

Microsoft: Whistling in the Dark

Maybe, it's a good idea to use your friends' IPhone and go web-surfing while they're using your cell-minutes. Try it. You'll get a kick out of it. And your "friends" will stop this racket.

> Sidenote: With all the excitement over the Iphone, it's interesting
> that my friends who own them are always borrowing my phone to make
> calls. What's with that?
>
> Bob

Microsoft: Whistling in the Dark

I seriously doubt hat you have used a PC for 15 years without a problem.

I also seriously doubt that consumers who switch from PC to Apple buy a bunch of AAPL shares along with the computer.

So, this leads me to believe that you don't know much about computers, and you're long on MSFT. And you're scared.

On Aug 15 10:06 PM Paul H. M. wrote:

> I've used Windows for 15 years without a problem.
>
> Are all these people on this forum, who claim that Windows does not
> work for them, just retarded, or just long on AAPL?

Microsoft: Whistling in the Dark

I know many PC users who switched to Apple.
Do you know anybody who switched from Apple to a PC?

First in, First Out? U.S. Leading OECD Out of Recession

I agree, there can't be a "nightmarish collapse of the dollar", because in global economy, if we inflate, they'd inflate accordingly.
Printing more dollars just doesn't make sense.
So, it can not be a way of salvation, (I wish it was that easy.}

My guess is that this "Global Economy" thing is not going to work quite well for US. Just imagine, a worker in an American Factory matching the wages of a worker in a Chinese Factory.

And why not? According to our Constitution all people are equal.

So, following the fair distribution of wealth between equal people in a "Global Economy", we must get much poorer, in order to blend our economic practices with our own Constitution.

Some would argue, that an American worker is much more productive. I'd seriously doubt it, having in mind all union obligations which made GM collapse.
After all, assembly line work is all the same all over the world.

Electricians, welders, engineers, computer programmers, doctors,,, all these people do the same work all over the world.
But in USA, the wages are much, much higher.
So in this Great Land Of Opportunity Of Ours, we're outsourcing.

Maybe, in the future, the outsourcing will bring some measure of prosperity by some political magic (Tariffs and Taxes come to mind) , but currently we're just losing it.


On Aug 13 01:36 PM chap08 wrote:

> There can't be a "nightmarish collapse of the dollar" because a)
> everybody else is adopting the same combo of "debt, government spending,
> and fiscal easing"; and b) any collapse in the dollar would be a
> pleasant surprise and a big help. If it also brings inflation then
> so much the better because that is the first step on the road to
> salvation.

When Insolvent Banks Are Worth Billions

Of course, no bank in the world can come up with the cash if all depositors come to the window.

But the Bank is supposed to have the ASSETS, in whatever form (cash, gold, mortgages, business loans, etc.), to be equal or greater than the cash deposits, so the Bank can meet its obligations with cash, gold, or whatever the Bank's current market assets are.

Our problem is, that after relaxing the M2M rules, these assets' are very, very bubbly. Which in turn is reflected in the current inflated values of bank stocks and declines in credit.

So, please, everybody, write to your representative to restore M2M. Without M2M, we're heading for imminent disaster.

Who's Blowing This Bubble - And When Will It Pop?

With all due respect, Deepv...
Dell is not in the bubble, because our 1-year old computers are gonna be just fine for the next five years or so, maybe even longer.
The same goes for our cars, homes, appliances, and so on, because we have bought so much stuff on credit, we've accumulated a tremendous surplus.
This surplus is going to put the brakes on spending, which will be reflected on the P/Es of most manufacturers.
Unless the Government comes up with something like "Cash for Everything" program.

If you want to see the real bubbles, check some of the REIT's, trading at about 30 P/E even after reporting losses and negative guidance.

Then you can look up some common charts.

But, if you like tech, you can check RIMM (P/E21), GOOG (P/E31) AAPL (P/E29), YHOO (P/E 4,141.64), AMZN (P/E 55.93)

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

Phil,
I've been a follower for some time, and I enjoy your style and your train of thought.
So, here's my 2 cents:
I think there's so much printed money in the world, that all that cash, just by sheer volume creates bubbles, be it in the stock market, commodities, real estate, health care, or God knows what we're gonna come up with next.
We have invented so many ways to lose money, and we keep inventing even more ways to lose that money.
And as soon as we lose that money, we roll the presses again.
So, maybe, we just have to pass an executive order to stop the presses, so we can focus on other human activities, rather than making bubbles.
I'd love to see your take on this.
peterdaskalov@sbcgloba...