Do Not Let The 1966-1981 Stock Market Dishearten You [View article]
Well I've managed my own money for quite a long time and it is not easy for me to hang onto an investment that goes under water and stays there, regardless of the income generated. It means I bought it wrong and could have gotten a better yield. And I'm not talking about little dips and short term stuff, rather long bear markets like Southgent spoke of. IOW, I can't see much joy in holding onto a stock that loses 30%-40% (long bear market) because the company raises the dividend 8% a year. And in a long bear market maybe the raises continue, maybe not because remember, 37% had some sort of malfunction last time around ;-)
I may be wrong but I assume many/most here spend the income, and that's fine because that's what they want the money to do for them. But you are still hanging onto a losing investment in dollar terms, and over many years that's just not palatable to me.
There might also be some difference in how we define "investment". To me an investment is something you buy with money you don't need and you manage it, grow it and never ever, even come hell or high water, touch it until you have to. That's my personal definition, yours is a little different, and is certainly valid.
Walgreen: Should I Stay Or Should I Go Now? [View article]
Thanks for that Chuck. I ran a comparison between WAG and WMT during that 2007-2009 period and WOW. Different businesses in the same sector, huge difference in performance.
Walgreen: Should I Stay Or Should I Go Now? [View article]
I own a large position in WAG and have gains similar to you. I really believe in this company.
Last night I was looking at a chart of WAG from the August 2007 to March 2009. It was not pretty. I didn't own the stock back then so I'm not aware of anything company related that would hammer it like that.
Do Not Let The 1966-1981 Stock Market Dishearten You [View article]
I have no problem with Cranky or anyone else presenting a less than flattering review of an author's stock picks. The ubiquitous "great article" and congratulatory back slapping doesn't really get you anywhere. No matter how thin you make a pancake it has two sides, and they both deserve to be explored.
Do Not Let The 1966-1981 Stock Market Dishearten You [View article]
Yes I had one of those CD's, 15% for 5 years at my local S&L, probably 1981-82 when Volker raised interest rates through the roof. I also had some Benham Target 2005 zeros that did quite well.
I chased after Silver in early 1980 and got clobbered along with the Hunt Brothers. I still have it so maybe I am able to ride the bear for an extended period of time. Nobody should be this dumb, LOL.
Going forward I think investors will have an appetite for dividend stocks or stocks that act like bonds. But you never know how all this QE stuff or the "fake" economic numbers will play out so I believe a good bit of caution is warranted today.
Dividend Growth Investing - The End Game [View article]
Awesome article Roger! So awesome I'm going to have to read it a couple more times to make sure I get it. I live for analysis like this, probably won't be able to sleep for a week.
The Dividend Cut And Run - Or Should You Stay? [View article]
I have some years before RMD's kick in so I'm more of a Total Return and DG combo. In the end all I'm ever going to care about is covering my RMD's with dividends so I'm moving in that direction.
The Dividend Cut And Run - Or Should You Stay? [View article]
Good article, thanks. Comment stream should get quite interesting.
To answer your questions.....
I bailed out starting November, 2007 through January, 2008. The previous few years had been very good to me and I felt extremely uncomfortable, so I moved to about 90% cash and only held onto MO, KFT and JNJ.
In 2008 I added (lots) to MO around $15-$17 (and received my PM shares) and made a nice gain on SDS, but gave most of it back when being a pig got the best of me. Basically I did very little and missed a great opportunity, but I was so busy at work I could not give my DD. And it was a very scary time to invest even at those 2009 lows, to me it seemed like the financial world was going to implode.
I retired in 2010 and though having missed the 2009 bottom I've done pretty well since picking up good values/good dividends, with low risk. The really only stupid thing I've done is fooling around (chasing yield) with junk like EXC and PBI. I was lucky enough to get out of those two relatively unscathed.
I've moved from about 18% cash at the beginning of 2013 to 29% today, taking a few profits and jettisoning anything that I didn't want to own forever, or anything I had the least bit of doubt about. I was a little early raising cash but I don't think I am now. I did buy some more KMB at $97 and MCD at $96 within the past two weeks but that's it for now. I haven't owned any highly interest rate sensitive stocks in the past year, so at least I'm not getting hammered there. Patience, no time for me to be a hero.
Stocks I'd like to buy on a nice dip- AMGN, CAT, KO, XOM. And maybe VWO.
Fears On Freeport-McMoRan Unwarranted: Big Upside Potential Remains [View article]
Emmet I want to agree with you but I don't know at this point. I've owned FCX for 16 months (and many times over the years) and it has been a tough stock to hang on to. Now I read where Indonesia is seeking an alternate copper supplier. The $1 special dividend doesn't seem to be very well received either.
Yup, in almost anything the good stuff costs a little more. I never owned KO in my whole life because it was always too expensive and I wouldn't pay up. Seemed smart at the time but 10-20 years later (which is really just the blink of an eye), trying to save a buck or two kept me out of a great stock.
Really good article Chowder, lots of things to think about.
I have always reinvested every dividend I ever received, mainly because I think I have invested in the right companies in the first place. I take a lot of the guesswork out of it by sticking with the best of the best dividend payers like MO, JNJ, PG and such. I also hold larger positions in those stocks and do not worry much about single company events taking them down to the point the dividend is affected. Of course anything can happen but I feel like if you saw PG or JNJ go belly up, everything else would already be long gone.
One thing I could never get it through my head why I should want less money in the best stocks. You can't let the size of your positions get way out of control, but they got that way because they performed well, and might continue to do so. If there's no fundamental reason to sell I don't. Oh I have and can hardly think of an instance where I don't wish I still owned the stock.
Do Not Let The 1966-1981 Stock Market Dishearten You [View article]
I may be wrong but I assume many/most here spend the income, and that's fine because that's what they want the money to do for them. But you are still hanging onto a losing investment in dollar terms, and over many years that's just not palatable to me.
There might also be some difference in how we define "investment". To me an investment is something you buy with money you don't need and you manage it, grow it and never ever, even come hell or high water, touch it until you have to. That's my personal definition, yours is a little different, and is certainly valid.
Walgreen: Should I Stay Or Should I Go Now? [View article]
Walgreen: Should I Stay Or Should I Go Now? [View article]
Last night I was looking at a chart of WAG from the August 2007 to March 2009. It was not pretty. I didn't own the stock back then so I'm not aware of anything company related that would hammer it like that.
Do Not Let The 1966-1981 Stock Market Dishearten You [View article]
Do Not Let The 1966-1981 Stock Market Dishearten You [View article]
I chased after Silver in early 1980 and got clobbered along with the Hunt Brothers. I still have it so maybe I am able to ride the bear for an extended period of time. Nobody should be this dumb, LOL.
Going forward I think investors will have an appetite for dividend stocks or stocks that act like bonds. But you never know how all this QE stuff or the "fake" economic numbers will play out so I believe a good bit of caution is warranted today.
Chowder Rule Vs. Figure Of Merit [View article]
I think either formula is fine to use as one component of a plan for making investment decisions. One of many. I would not give either the last word.
Do Not Let The 1966-1981 Stock Market Dishearten You [View article]
Do Not Let The 1966-1981 Stock Market Dishearten You [View article]
I heard on CNBC today more adult diapers are sold in Japan than baby diapers. Think about that for a minute!
Dividend Growth Investing - The End Game [View article]
The Dividend Cut And Run - Or Should You Stay? [View article]
The Dividend Cut And Run - Or Should You Stay? [View article]
To answer your questions.....
I bailed out starting November, 2007 through January, 2008. The previous few years had been very good to me and I felt extremely uncomfortable, so I moved to about 90% cash and only held onto MO, KFT and JNJ.
In 2008 I added (lots) to MO around $15-$17 (and received my PM shares) and made a nice gain on SDS, but gave most of it back when being a pig got the best of me. Basically I did very little and missed a great opportunity, but I was so busy at work I could not give my DD. And it was a very scary time to invest even at those 2009 lows, to me it seemed like the financial world was going to implode.
I retired in 2010 and though having missed the 2009 bottom I've done pretty well since picking up good values/good dividends, with low risk. The really only stupid thing I've done is fooling around (chasing yield) with junk like EXC and PBI. I was lucky enough to get out of those two relatively unscathed.
I've moved from about 18% cash at the beginning of 2013 to 29% today, taking a few profits and jettisoning anything that I didn't want to own forever, or anything I had the least bit of doubt about. I was a little early raising cash but I don't think I am now. I did buy some more KMB at $97 and MCD at $96 within the past two weeks but that's it for now. I haven't owned any highly interest rate sensitive stocks in the past year, so at least I'm not getting hammered there. Patience, no time for me to be a hero.
Stocks I'd like to buy on a nice dip- AMGN, CAT, KO, XOM. And maybe VWO.
Fears On Freeport-McMoRan Unwarranted: Big Upside Potential Remains [View article]
Dividend Reinvestment - Yes Or No? [View instapost]
Dividend Reinvestment - Yes Or No? [View instapost]
I have always reinvested every dividend I ever received, mainly because I think I have invested in the right companies in the first place. I take a lot of the guesswork out of it by sticking with the best of the best dividend payers like MO, JNJ, PG and such. I also hold larger positions in those stocks and do not worry much about single company events taking them down to the point the dividend is affected. Of course anything can happen but I feel like if you saw PG or JNJ go belly up, everything else would already be long gone.
One thing I could never get it through my head why I should want less money in the best stocks. You can't let the size of your positions get way out of control, but they got that way because they performed well, and might continue to do so. If there's no fundamental reason to sell I don't. Oh I have and can hardly think of an instance where I don't wish I still owned the stock.
Conoco Phillips: High-Yield Blue Chip Heading In The Right Direction [View article]