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China Interest

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  • Is Allocating At Least 25% Of Your Portfolio To China Too Risky? [View article]
    JC51

    I couldn't agree more but have you noticed that they just say the bears are wrong but when it comes to actual facts and figures from economics and finance they have no argument. It is pretty hard to deny the fact that every city in China has thousands (and I mean thousands) of empty buildings.

    Also why is it that Wal-mart's (not official because Wal-mart doesn't release this information) same day sales have been in decline in China for the past three years? Where are the consumers spending? It would seem to me (from my observations) that Wal-mart is among the most popular places to go shopping in China. How do you explain these anomalies if the economy is actually growing (besides the fixed investment).
    Oct 30, 2011. 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Allocating At Least 25% Of Your Portfolio To China Too Risky? [View article]
    Tom Sr

    I am and have lived in China for several years and I have just the opposite take as you. I wonder how blind can you be to the fact that this economy is going in the wrong direction. I have to wonder if you understand economics and finance? How can you explain sustainable growth from a serious misallocation of resources and severe financial repression? China made most of its progress over a decade ago, and now it is reverting back to a state-directed economy deeply in debt (could be approaching insolvency). Those debts will need to be paid - who will pay - the Chinese consumer. That means the GDP growth will be stifled for years to come (already consumption is only 33% of overall GDP). And come next decade the population actually begins its steep decline. This is going to either be a gradual slide down, or a risk of a very hard landing. You can't sustain an economy of state-directed demand, where credit is getting less and less bang for its buck each time out, while the overall debt rapidly accumulates.
    Oct 30, 2011. 07:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Allocating At Least 25% Of Your Portfolio To China Too Risky? [View article]
    As far as countries go in Asia - India or some of the smaller countries are the better choices (China was a decade or more ago but already way too late). But I would suggest for the most part going with multinational companies that are doing a significant amount of business there than investing in local companies (you don't understand).
    Oct 29, 2011. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Allocating At Least 25% Of Your Portfolio To China Too Risky? [View article]
    Jason

    China is printing money at a much more rapid rate (2009/2010 it hit a peak of 40%) than the USA. The credit expansion in the banking and informal banking sectors in China are at rates well beyond those in the USA (to projects that that don't have potential for paying back). Good luck!!
    Oct 29, 2011. 08:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Allocating At Least 25% Of Your Portfolio To China Too Risky? [View article]
    China has bears for a reason! Share prices are still over valued when applying the fundamentals (using observations from the street rather than the numbers given in public). Until there is transparency and proper accounting standards, the Chinese market is a pure investment gamble!

    P.S. The Yuan is actually overvalued today because of the massive amount of debts accumulated (and unpayable) in the banks, SOEs, LGFVs, and the informal banking sector. Much of this debt will require the central government to print more money to cover it up.
    Oct 26, 2011. 06:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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