davcnslt's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/4644/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/128001-commoditization-and-the-demise-of-customer-support?source=feed#comment-442166 442166 Fri, 27 Mar 2009 09:26:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114178-cibc-chief-economist-tsx-will-hit-11-000-by-year-s-end?source=feed#comment-353022 353022

On Jan 11 10:59 PM younginvestor wrote:

> Never trust a chief economist from a bank who has suffered the worst
> losses of all Canadian banks!]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 05:09:13 -0500

On Jan 11 10:59 PM younginvestor wrote:

> Never trust a chief economist from a bank who has suffered the worst
> losses of all Canadian banks!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102098-another-buffett-prediction-japan-edition?source=feed#comment-292345 292345 Tue, 28 Oct 2008 09:57:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98769-our-coming-depression?source=feed#comment-275888 275888 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:43:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97568-wall-street-1792-2008?source=feed#comment-267173 267173 In my opinion, opinion is heavily tilted to a NO vote on Paulson's plan as submitted, undergoing substantice changes as we write these comments. For my own small part: I will never support a package that doesn't address systemic change that prevents the unabashed greed that has driven our wisest to bring us to a brink of catastrophe. Nor would I ever support a package that doesn't redress most, if not all, the absurd executive pay packages of those involved, and institutes recovery. Finally, those firms wishing to sell assets to the government bail-out program must relinquish equity above and beyond the toxic waste it wishes to sell, and that eq]]> Sat, 27 Sep 2008 23:55:22 -0400 In my opinion, opinion is heavily tilted to a NO vote on Paulson's plan as submitted, undergoing substantice changes as we write these comments. For my own small part: I will never support a package that doesn't address systemic change that prevents the unabashed greed that has driven our wisest to bring us to a brink of catastrophe. Nor would I ever support a package that doesn't redress most, if not all, the absurd executive pay packages of those involved, and institutes recovery. Finally, those firms wishing to sell assets to the government bail-out program must relinquish equity above and beyond the toxic waste it wishes to sell, and that eq]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88220-where-we-should-be-investing-the-paradox-of-thrift?source=feed#comment-220856 220856 Sat, 02 Aug 2008 05:08:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82949-long-ideas-for-an-upcoming-crash?source=feed#comment-193913 193913 Fri, 27 Jun 2008 06:53:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81094-long-term-ugliness?source=feed#comment-185104 185104 Fri, 13 Jun 2008 13:35:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80189-western-digital-time-to-sell?source=feed#comment-179580 179580 many thanks for your notes on WDC. First I wanted to correct a misuse of terms:
"solid state drives would be a thing of the past as flash drives would overtake the market"
Actually solid state drives and NAND flash drives are similarly used. An exception is that the term "solid state drives" would also refer to "drives" that consist of RAM memory as well. In addition, with regard to your thesis, today there is little sign of WD growing inventory, nor is there any reason to believe that inventories would grow in the prime buying time normally associated with the back half of the year. In fact, since mid year last year the HDD industry has been markedly restrained in terms of controlling inventories and prices. During the stronger buying season of the back half, we could expect pricing to remain solid. For my money it is too soon to sell WDC. The stock still sells at attractive multiples, guidance is solid, and WD has been banging on all cylinders. With recent updated forecasts from both Gartner and IDC reflecting PC growth of 10% with the more brisk buying still to come, I believe shareholders are better served holding or even chasing a little. WD's execution in the fastest growing segment of the HDD business, the 2.5 inch mobile sector is really quite phenomenal.]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 08:53:35 -0400 many thanks for your notes on WDC. First I wanted to correct a misuse of terms:
"solid state drives would be a thing of the past as flash drives would overtake the market"
Actually solid state drives and NAND flash drives are similarly used. An exception is that the term "solid state drives" would also refer to "drives" that consist of RAM memory as well. In addition, with regard to your thesis, today there is little sign of WD growing inventory, nor is there any reason to believe that inventories would grow in the prime buying time normally associated with the back half of the year. In fact, since mid year last year the HDD industry has been markedly restrained in terms of controlling inventories and prices. During the stronger buying season of the back half, we could expect pricing to remain solid. For my money it is too soon to sell WDC. The stock still sells at attractive multiples, guidance is solid, and WD has been banging on all cylinders. With recent updated forecasts from both Gartner and IDC reflecting PC growth of 10% with the more brisk buying still to come, I believe shareholders are better served holding or even chasing a little. WD's execution in the fastest growing segment of the HDD business, the 2.5 inch mobile sector is really quite phenomenal.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79155-peyto-energy-trust-a-truly-unique-energy-investment?source=feed#comment-175898 175898 Thu, 29 May 2008 09:47:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76140-metalline-mining-s-silver-lining?source=feed#comment-163877 163877 Thu, 08 May 2008 00:28:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70473-netapp-new-name-better-prospects?source=feed#comment-134420 134420 www.foxbusiness.com/ma...
Another play that your readers may want to consider is a major supplier to NetApp. Xyratex (NASDAQ: XRTX) depends on NetApp for 72% of their $187.8 million networked storage business. So why buy Xyratex when it seems to be a direct proxy for NetApp? A big change for Xyratex during the last quarter was a new relationship with Dell thanks to the latter's acquisition of EqualLogic. During their conference call last week, the company's CEO, Steve Barber said ""We were fortuitous in that Dell acquired a company we previously engaged with. We're in dialog with them on other technology."
Prospective investors should note, however, that any contemplation of Xyratex as a candidate for your portfolio must include some diligence in another area of their business. Xyratex is the leading supplier of "infrastructure" to hard drive (HDD) manufacturers. By "infrastructure" the company refers to the highly specialized capital equipment that HDD manufacturers require to make and test their products. In this segment, Xyratex has seen revenues fall 60% year over year, as HDD manufacturers tempered their plans in favor of supply/demand balance after a brutal price war in the first half of 2007. While caution due to macro considerations continues to weigh on capital spending, the HDD makers all have expansion plans targeted for the back half of this year. Xyratex's key customers in this space are the two leaders, Western Digital and Seagate Technology. Given the inexorable demand for storage, I believe that Xyratex, NetApp, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology offer potential for patient investors willing to measure their entry point and who are seeking a solid middle ground for a technology recovery in the back half of this year. At the moment, we believe that these companies have seen C1Q exiting with a slowing of ship rates and minor increases in inventory. As this becomes apparent, with possible revisions over the next few weeks, we expect multiple opportunity points to present themselves.
Thank you again for a well researched and thought-out article.

(1) See article on the recent IDC report: money.cnn.com/news/new...

Disclosure: We do not currently own any of the stocks mentioned in this reply
]]> Tue, 01 Apr 2008 00:03:51 -0400 www.foxbusiness.com/ma...
Another play that your readers may want to consider is a major supplier to NetApp. Xyratex (NASDAQ: XRTX) depends on NetApp for 72% of their $187.8 million networked storage business. So why buy Xyratex when it seems to be a direct proxy for NetApp? A big change for Xyratex during the last quarter was a new relationship with Dell thanks to the latter's acquisition of EqualLogic. During their conference call last week, the company's CEO, Steve Barber said ""We were fortuitous in that Dell acquired a company we previously engaged with. We're in dialog with them on other technology."
Prospective investors should note, however, that any contemplation of Xyratex as a candidate for your portfolio must include some diligence in another area of their business. Xyratex is the leading supplier of "infrastructure" to hard drive (HDD) manufacturers. By "infrastructure" the company refers to the highly specialized capital equipment that HDD manufacturers require to make and test their products. In this segment, Xyratex has seen revenues fall 60% year over year, as HDD manufacturers tempered their plans in favor of supply/demand balance after a brutal price war in the first half of 2007. While caution due to macro considerations continues to weigh on capital spending, the HDD makers all have expansion plans targeted for the back half of this year. Xyratex's key customers in this space are the two leaders, Western Digital and Seagate Technology. Given the inexorable demand for storage, I believe that Xyratex, NetApp, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology offer potential for patient investors willing to measure their entry point and who are seeking a solid middle ground for a technology recovery in the back half of this year. At the moment, we believe that these companies have seen C1Q exiting with a slowing of ship rates and minor increases in inventory. As this becomes apparent, with possible revisions over the next few weeks, we expect multiple opportunity points to present themselves.
Thank you again for a well researched and thought-out article.

(1) See article on the recent IDC report: money.cnn.com/news/new...

Disclosure: We do not currently own any of the stocks mentioned in this reply
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68359-sell-the-news-buy-the-rally?source=feed#comment-125955 125955 Thu, 13 Mar 2008 10:35:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/44687-seagate-western-digital-expecting-seasonal-updrafts-in-volume-and-earnings?source=feed#comment-93895 93895 "We expect STX to report upside to estimates this quarter, with margins in particular likely to benefit from the more rational pricing environment. Since ’02, during strong back half drive environments, margins at STX have advanced by between 240 bps to 400+ bps from CQ2 to CQ4. Assuming we see similar margin trends this time around, STX would report upside of $0.14 to $0.25 to consensus quarterly earnings by CQ4.
We see STX and WD sellside conference presentations early in September as the next potential positive catalysts for the stock as we expect both companies will provide very positive commentary about the current environment.]]> Fri, 17 Aug 2007 09:22:27 -0400 "We expect STX to report upside to estimates this quarter, with margins in particular likely to benefit from the more rational pricing environment. Since ’02, during strong back half drive environments, margins at STX have advanced by between 240 bps to 400+ bps from CQ2 to CQ4. Assuming we see similar margin trends this time around, STX would report upside of $0.14 to $0.25 to consensus quarterly earnings by CQ4.
We see STX and WD sellside conference presentations early in September as the next potential positive catalysts for the stock as we expect both companies will provide very positive commentary about the current environment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44689-gold-s-value-in-the-21st-century-about-as-real-as-the-myth-of-el-dorado?source=feed#comment-93876 93876
The answer comes at least partially from Robert Bohrer's comments as to the vaue of Gold in jewelry, especially in Asia. (Gold sees little use as a manufacturing material other than in jewelry). It is a defactor currency, or wealth asset to millions here.

The lustre of gold is not going to go away, perhaps because of it;s illogic rather than in spite of it's illogic.. I would add gold to the wisdom of Robert Lichello's observation that in nuclear winters only cigarettes, soap, booze, and chocolate have investment value. (as reiterated above by Malkiel). There will always be those that will sell you these things if you have gold in my opinion. Incidentally, I also would have added condoms to Lichello's list.]]> Thu, 16 Aug 2007 23:18:50 -0400
The answer comes at least partially from Robert Bohrer's comments as to the vaue of Gold in jewelry, especially in Asia. (Gold sees little use as a manufacturing material other than in jewelry). It is a defactor currency, or wealth asset to millions here.

The lustre of gold is not going to go away, perhaps because of it;s illogic rather than in spite of it's illogic.. I would add gold to the wisdom of Robert Lichello's observation that in nuclear winters only cigarettes, soap, booze, and chocolate have investment value. (as reiterated above by Malkiel). There will always be those that will sell you these things if you have gold in my opinion. Incidentally, I also would have added condoms to Lichello's list.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44718-time-to-buy-gold-stocks-a-vicious-circle-turns-virtuous?source=feed#comment-93874 93874 Thu, 16 Aug 2007 22:53:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/44456-continued-pricing-power-in-store-for-data-storage?source=feed#comment-93781 93781 trendfocus.com) recently provided a study to it's clients, based on reviewing quarterly unit shipments (across all models) since 1998, by quarter. The swings can be quite pronounced. For example, shipments rose 22% in CQ3 of 2003, and fell 8.2% (QoQ) in CQ1,04. In CQ1-2007 shipments declined %5.11 from the previous quarter. In CQ2-2007 the decline softened to -%1.26. The mean forecast for CQ3 (from several forecasters) is that unit demand will grow 17%. Mobile units are expected to outpace that at 23% Q over Q. We would have expected to see some aggressive pricing in 2.5 ich drives, expecially those at the higher capacity points (250GB). That hasn't happened norappeared to have happened, at least yet. We would also have expected to see continued aggressive pricing in 3.5 inch desktop and CE (DVR) Models. That also does not appear to have happened. In fact certain capacity points in the 3.5 inch sector are getting hard to find and in at least one mfr's case they are currently on allocaton. In the excerpts from conference calls you used above, we would note that WD seems to be saying that they expect the heat on pricing to cool off somewhat in CQ3 as buyers opt for assured and steady supply so as not to threaten their time critical build plans. Seagates comments are, while admittedly more circumspect, suggest that they are planning for continued price pressure from the competition as a matter being conservative, as they have no control over competitor';''s behavior in pricing. Since both those statements were made however, it has been pretty clear in the channels that pricing has not been as aggressive in CQ2. In their most recent pricing survey, Avian Research notes that pricing for 100GB 7200 RPM mobile drives has risen .4% week over week. TYhe 160GB 5400 RPM SATA 2.5 inch has risen 1.2% in the same period. I agree that in general, pricing in the hard drive market is always competitive. However, recent consolidation, coupled with the commencement of seasonal higher demand, suggests that, contrary to any imminent decline in pricing power, the industry should be poised for near term strengthening in pricing power, at least through the next two quarters. To draw any real conclusions from this one would have to review and understand operating efficiencies especially opex, time-to-volume on new products, and product mix shipped. Two brands of HDD targeting the same performace and capacity, have little in the way of differentiation. Yields in the factory, COGS, time-to-volume, and ROI on Capex is what will set apart a particular vendor.]]> Thu, 16 Aug 2007 00:14:27 -0400 trendfocus.com) recently provided a study to it's clients, based on reviewing quarterly unit shipments (across all models) since 1998, by quarter. The swings can be quite pronounced. For example, shipments rose 22% in CQ3 of 2003, and fell 8.2% (QoQ) in CQ1,04. In CQ1-2007 shipments declined %5.11 from the previous quarter. In CQ2-2007 the decline softened to -%1.26. The mean forecast for CQ3 (from several forecasters) is that unit demand will grow 17%. Mobile units are expected to outpace that at 23% Q over Q. We would have expected to see some aggressive pricing in 2.5 ich drives, expecially those at the higher capacity points (250GB). That hasn't happened norappeared to have happened, at least yet. We would also have expected to see continued aggressive pricing in 3.5 inch desktop and CE (DVR) Models. That also does not appear to have happened. In fact certain capacity points in the 3.5 inch sector are getting hard to find and in at least one mfr's case they are currently on allocaton. In the excerpts from conference calls you used above, we would note that WD seems to be saying that they expect the heat on pricing to cool off somewhat in CQ3 as buyers opt for assured and steady supply so as not to threaten their time critical build plans. Seagates comments are, while admittedly more circumspect, suggest that they are planning for continued price pressure from the competition as a matter being conservative, as they have no control over competitor';''s behavior in pricing. Since both those statements were made however, it has been pretty clear in the channels that pricing has not been as aggressive in CQ2. In their most recent pricing survey, Avian Research notes that pricing for 100GB 7200 RPM mobile drives has risen .4% week over week. TYhe 160GB 5400 RPM SATA 2.5 inch has risen 1.2% in the same period. I agree that in general, pricing in the hard drive market is always competitive. However, recent consolidation, coupled with the commencement of seasonal higher demand, suggests that, contrary to any imminent decline in pricing power, the industry should be poised for near term strengthening in pricing power, at least through the next two quarters. To draw any real conclusions from this one would have to review and understand operating efficiencies especially opex, time-to-volume on new products, and product mix shipped. Two brands of HDD targeting the same performace and capacity, have little in the way of differentiation. Yields in the factory, COGS, time-to-volume, and ROI on Capex is what will set apart a particular vendor.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/41133-many-etfs-few-investment-opportunities-127-investable-funds?source=feed#comment-92572 92572 Your post is a nifty piece of work, and very helpful as I am currently reconstructing our portfolio (who isn't?). Many thanks, it is much appreciated. Incidentally, I had no problems saving the jpg files in the enlarged format as of 10:00 am asia pac time (10 pm EST). Best Regards,
Gary Davis]]> Tue, 31 Jul 2007 22:33:05 -0400 Your post is a nifty piece of work, and very helpful as I am currently reconstructing our portfolio (who isn't?). Many thanks, it is much appreciated. Incidentally, I had no problems saving the jpg files in the enlarged format as of 10:00 am asia pac time (10 pm EST). Best Regards,
Gary Davis]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/41751-seagate-technology-adopts-baffling-policy-on-financial-guidance?source=feed#comment-91807 91807 Sun, 22 Jul 2007 06:19:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/39551-what-does-the-iphone-teach-us-about-technology?source=feed#comment-89958 89958 Thu, 28 Jun 2007 23:40:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/39002-how-to-win-the-china-piracy-battle?source=feed#comment-89348 89348
China in particular, has a long and rich history of replication. This includes emporor's from various dynastys commissioning the manufacture of exacting replicas of antiquities. It had been a time honored practice, with the most accomplished artisans receiving praise and rewarded for their skills.

China today is quite a bit different than the former inward Confucian, and then communist, driven closeting of the past. But it is difficult for the West to stand on moral ground when considering history and events such as the opium wars and the smuggling of tea plants out of China for culturing in the British Raj.

Though several encouraging headlines recently point to increased enforcement in China, open sales of faked brand names is still grossly obvious to the most casual observer. As I live in, and travel Asia extensively I see this in almost every country I visit. One only needs to walk the shops and open-air markets in Shenzhen, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, name a city...to guage how prevalent this is. (For example: at the moment, directly across the street from my hotel in Bangkok, there are fake Rolex's galore, along with numerous "branded" clothing items. I think that it is erroneous to believe that somehow, as personal wealth grows, the transition to purchasing genuine Gucci will somehow follow. From my own ad hoc observations, there is no shortage of my fellow Westerners lining up to buy these items. And what is a $400.00 per month secretary opining for a fake Louis Vuitton bag doing, other than succumbing to the mind-numbing scramble for prestige that world commerece has churned up since time immemorial. However, I am much less concerned about fake Rolex's and Gucci bags. (They fall apart, or the logos tarnish, and the greedy buyer gets what he/she deserves.) I.T. products, heavy machinery, pumps, medicines, household items,process technologies, all have been subjected to copying that shows dismaying ingenuity in reverse engineering.
Official encouragement and assistance for effective enforcement will go a lot farther than assuming increased personal wealth will obviate against pirated products. I also think that while U.S. customs practices profiling visitors for security inspections, they might add to their list of profiles the returning American with the fresh tan. Chances are his luggage will contain more than one dubious product.]]> Thu, 21 Jun 2007 23:25:53 -0400
China in particular, has a long and rich history of replication. This includes emporor's from various dynastys commissioning the manufacture of exacting replicas of antiquities. It had been a time honored practice, with the most accomplished artisans receiving praise and rewarded for their skills.

China today is quite a bit different than the former inward Confucian, and then communist, driven closeting of the past. But it is difficult for the West to stand on moral ground when considering history and events such as the opium wars and the smuggling of tea plants out of China for culturing in the British Raj.

Though several encouraging headlines recently point to increased enforcement in China, open sales of faked brand names is still grossly obvious to the most casual observer. As I live in, and travel Asia extensively I see this in almost every country I visit. One only needs to walk the shops and open-air markets in Shenzhen, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, name a city...to guage how prevalent this is. (For example: at the moment, directly across the street from my hotel in Bangkok, there are fake Rolex's galore, along with numerous "branded" clothing items. I think that it is erroneous to believe that somehow, as personal wealth grows, the transition to purchasing genuine Gucci will somehow follow. From my own ad hoc observations, there is no shortage of my fellow Westerners lining up to buy these items. And what is a $400.00 per month secretary opining for a fake Louis Vuitton bag doing, other than succumbing to the mind-numbing scramble for prestige that world commerece has churned up since time immemorial. However, I am much less concerned about fake Rolex's and Gucci bags. (They fall apart, or the logos tarnish, and the greedy buyer gets what he/she deserves.) I.T. products, heavy machinery, pumps, medicines, household items,process technologies, all have been subjected to copying that shows dismaying ingenuity in reverse engineering.
Official encouragement and assistance for effective enforcement will go a lot farther than assuming increased personal wealth will obviate against pirated products. I also think that while U.S. customs practices profiling visitors for security inspections, they might add to their list of profiles the returning American with the fresh tan. Chances are his luggage will contain more than one dubious product.]]>