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Commoditization and the Demise of Customer Support

Joel, this was one of the most cogent and well written articles on this very interesting (and disturbing) issue. I have always been made to feel as though I were being anachronistic to point out the decline in customer service. I am delighted to note that you are a younger man, and wish you well in any future endeavors in promoting the once-upon-a-time skills wrought by absolute dedication to customer satisfaction and (thereby) retention. I suspect that the loss of this fine point has long ago been lost because of the "me-now" attitude that seems to have pervaded our society at large. It could also be due to the lack of civility in an increasingly global landscape where polity, civility, and customer dedication are simply lost. Three cheers!

CIBC Chief Economist: TSX Will Hit 11,000 by Year's End

Maybe a "younginvestor" but at least wise enough to consider the source.


On Jan 11 10:59 PM younginvestor wrote:

> Never trust a chief economist from a bank who has suffered the worst
> losses of all Canadian banks!

Insider Sales Remain High Despite Rally

I must issue a correction to the above comment. The original article failed to note other insider sales that have a material effect on the opinion I express. Please cut and paste the folling link the article at the following link for more data to form your own opinon:
online.barrons.com/art...

Insider Sales Remain High Despite Rally

Your search criteria were flawed imho. You caught Western Digital in a single transaction: A sale of 137K shares by their CTO. That hardly respesents a broad vote of no confidence. It is much more likely that the sale is about timing the taxes for 2009, (as well as realizing the personal gain, of course). While WD has seen an exodus of several relatively senior execs, several of them to Hitachi GST, starting with their CEO, Steve Milligan who was formerly WD's CFO. He has succesfuklly brought aboard many key people from WD, including Don Blake, as sr. vice pres. with responsibility for world-wide operations. This exodus might nominally be of concern to investors. However, in this case I personally know many of the second string execs who I have great respect for, and who are fully qualified to fill any shoes that walked away. Again, in my opinon, WD will not be hurt badly by the recent ship jumping. Instead, Hitachi GST will continue to, as they have, deliver sub standard performance compared to Seagate and Western Digital, unless the Japan based owners are, at long last, willing to convey decision responsibity to the new and capable team they have recruited.

Another Buffett Prediction, Japan Edition

I agree that Japan is not neccessarily a no-brainer here with systemic issues galore. However, a major concerted effort by policymakers in the forex could tilt in their favor for a bounce. Event then it would be short-lived. I don't see Buffet making a move on it. I rather syuspect he is licking some wounds.

Our Coming Depression

Meticulously researched, passionately composed, and compellingly presented. Perhaps the most resonant part of the above is your belief that the "me generation" is showing signs of accepting the end of the "Cigar afficiando - tubs of iced Kristal" days. In my view they were not happy days. Nor are these. However, I want to believe that we are correcting course, and setting our sights on immutable values that are awaiting our return.

Wall Street, 1792 - 2008?

OK, I'll ask the obvious: What was the information value of this post ?(other then to spur several interesting comments). If reads like a proxy for the Paulson/Bernanke bailout pitch., complete with the ubiquitous overly bubbleized FEAR factor. (Insert "hyperbole" if you wish).
In my opinion, opinion is heavily tilted to a NO vote on Paulson's plan as submitted, undergoing substantice changes as we write these comments. For my own small part: I will never support a package that doesn't address systemic change that prevents the unabashed greed that has driven our wisest to bring us to a brink of catastrophe. Nor would I ever support a package that doesn't redress most, if not all, the absurd executive pay packages of those involved, and institutes recovery. Finally, those firms wishing to sell assets to the government bail-out program must relinquish equity above and beyond the toxic waste it wishes to sell, and that eq

Where We Should Be Investing: The Paradox of Thrift

Thank you for a particularly eloquent springboard piece from McCulley's essay. I had already read his article when I stumbled onto your post. It is spartanly simple and elegant, particularly so in that we have all around an increasing "tragedy of the commons" in almost all things vital to us. I could not agree with you more. The siren songs of the goldbugs and their opposite, the entitlement & consumption dupes, have all along made little sense to me. I enjoyed your post as much as any I have seen here.

Long Ideas for an Upcoming Crash

Thanks for the post, I am with you on a couple of your picks and would like your view of SLW's warrant issue. I see it as bullish insofar as what might be management's expectations for rising silver prices. I suspect they are moving to re-fill the war chest for acceleration of acquisitions. Interesting though, how much of a chip off the old block they really are. This is very much like former parent goldcorp. Incidentally, while I understand your subdued rant about indivisdual investors posting here I think for may of us it isn't neccessary. I weigh all I read here, some more meticulously then others. If you stick to your rationale and you have calculated right, all eyes and ears will follow.

Long-Term Ugliness

Why does anyone post an article like this? It is completely void of contributive information.

Western Digital: Time to Sell?

Hi mark,
many thanks for your notes on WDC. First I wanted to correct a misuse of terms:
"solid state drives would be a thing of the past as flash drives would overtake the market"
Actually solid state drives and NAND flash drives are similarly used. An exception is that the term "solid state drives" would also refer to "drives" that consist of RAM memory as well. In addition, with regard to your thesis, today there is little sign of WD growing inventory, nor is there any reason to believe that inventories would grow in the prime buying time normally associated with the back half of the year. In fact, since mid year last year the HDD industry has been markedly restrained in terms of controlling inventories and prices. During the stronger buying season of the back half, we could expect pricing to remain solid. For my money it is too soon to sell WDC. The stock still sells at attractive multiples, guidance is solid, and WD has been banging on all cylinders. With recent updated forecasts from both Gartner and IDC reflecting PC growth of 10% with the more brisk buying still to come, I believe shareholders are better served holding or even chasing a little. WD's execution in the fastest growing segment of the HDD business, the 2.5 inch mobile sector is really quite phenomenal.

Peyto Energy Trust: A Truly Unique Energy Investment

Still own it. One of my strongest picks, even with recent softness. High oil is with us for good. Demand for Natural Gas in the sand fields will continue to grow as that oil stay profitable. This is a great hold and is frankly one I never worry about unless oil goes to $70 per barrel. That just isn''t going to happen, perhaps ever.

Metalline Mining's Silver Lining

Well researched and well presented article. many thanks & kudos.

NetApp: New Name, Better Prospects?

Alan, you timed your note on NetApp perfectly. I had recently added it back to my watch list. Yours is an excellent report and I appreciate the thorough review. I agree with the baseline formation of $19 and suspect we will see opportunities approaching that line over the next few months, as technology in general enters it's C2Q doldrums. Investors should note that global data volume is growing by almost 60 per cent per year(1) and NetApp has a well established solid position in the space. Like you, I admire their willingness to invest in technology during the current climate. I especially like their devlopments in de-duplication technology, a key to complete storage virtualization. See today's article [hyperlink] www.foxbusiness.com/ma...
Another play that your readers may want to consider is a major supplier to NetApp. Xyratex (NASDAQ: XRTX) depends on NetApp for 72% of their $187.8 million networked storage business. So why buy Xyratex when it seems to be a direct proxy for NetApp? A big change for Xyratex during the last quarter was a new relationship with Dell thanks to the latter's acquisition of EqualLogic. During their conference call last week, the company's CEO, Steve Barber said ""We were fortuitous in that Dell acquired a company we previously engaged with. We're in dialog with them on other technology."
Prospective investors should note, however, that any contemplation of Xyratex as a candidate for your portfolio must include some diligence in another area of their business. Xyratex is the leading supplier of "infrastructure" to hard drive (HDD) manufacturers. By "infrastructure" the company refers to the highly specialized capital equipment that HDD manufacturers require to make and test their products. In this segment, Xyratex has seen revenues fall 60% year over year, as HDD manufacturers tempered their plans in favor of supply/demand balance after a brutal price war in the first half of 2007. While caution due to macro considerations continues to weigh on capital spending, the HDD makers all have expansion plans targeted for the back half of this year. Xyratex's key customers in this space are the two leaders, Western Digital and Seagate Technology. Given the inexorable demand for storage, I believe that Xyratex, NetApp, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology offer potential for patient investors willing to measure their entry point and who are seeking a solid middle ground for a technology recovery in the back half of this year. At the moment, we believe that these companies have seen C1Q exiting with a slowing of ship rates and minor increases in inventory. As this becomes apparent, with possible revisions over the next few weeks, we expect multiple opportunity points to present themselves.
Thank you again for a well researched and thought-out article.

(1) See article on the recent IDC report: money.cnn.com/news/new...

Disclosure: We do not currently own any of the stocks mentioned in this reply

Sell the News, Buy the Rally

I have to join the thumbs down crowd here and ask how it is we landed on this kind of article in the first place? I believe it is better suited for Yahoo threads.