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  • Defending FMSA Holding As A Generational Buy [View article]
    A small cap in an unloved sector will find very hard to perform well due to money outflows: it is like swimming against the tide...
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Closing Out My Long Volatility Position And What's Next [View article]
    Have you tried selling puts (to go long vola) or calls (to short vola) in an attempt to buy some more time in case you are right about a move but wrong about the timing?
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big bounce in junk, BDCs [View news story]
    The sector that suffered the most are up the most. It started with a short covering before the Fed, then they did not hear anything unpleasant so the buying became stronger. It was due. Now the ball is in the Russian side once again. World markets are depending on ruble/oil. If they find a bottom equities will do well and credit has a lot to catch up in 1Q2015.
    Dec 17, 2014. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acacia Mining: This Turnaround Is For Real [View article]
    I am not surprised, SELL-side analysts are never conservative.
    In my models I would put a $1100 estimate for 2015, $1150 for 2016 and $1200 LT.
    Dec 17, 2014. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acacia Mining: This Turnaround Is For Real [View article]
    The assumptions are those used by the commodity team.
    Long Term=$1,508
    Dec 17, 2014. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AngloGold's Earnings Have Improved, But The Company Still Has A Long Way To Go [View article]
    Management is firmly focused on FCF generation/debt reduction and is looking to sell/JV assets in Colombia (La Colosa and Nuevo Chaquiro) as well as the Obuasi mine in Ghana (it has received expressions of interest on all 3 of these assets). In the medium-term (over the next 2-3 years) it would like to reduce debt levels by c$1bn. Anglogold 2020 is a terrific buy at current prices: ask 104 for a ytm of 7.4%.
    Naturally you have to believe gold found a floor above $1150 an ounce.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial on sale [View news story]
    How the book value is affected by yield curve flattening? 10 years are hodling but 30 years are dropping as fast as a rolling stone with no sign of stopping.
    Dec 11, 2014. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial: A Decent Quarter For This 14% Yielder [View article]
    The quarter was not decent at all: it was a big miss. Ellington Financial reported 3Q14 GAAP EPS of $0.45, below Consensus’ $0.66 and much lower than anticipated by bulls such as Bank of America (estimate of $0.79).
    The crazy and endless flattening of the yield curve is taking a toll, but maybe the fears of spread compressions are exaggerated. After all, in the past the company showed to be an active managers and we are trading so far from book value (above $23.50) that I suspect we are seeing a liquidation due more to tax selling than fundamental reasons. I'd be a buyer at around $20 at year-end to bet on a better 2015. Book value stability is the key.
    Dec 11, 2014. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acacia Mining: This Turnaround Is For Real [View article]
    In London the ticker is still ABG. The stock is approaching resistance at 260 pence, after climbing 30% from the lows of late October. If the credibility gap starts to vanish and gold (as it seems) made a bottom this is a good pick.
    What I like is the conservative management: capex will continue to decline from peak of US$400 mn in 2013, US$200mn in 2016, down to US$100 mn in 2019. AISC down to below US$800/oz in 2019.
    Anyway numbers published by Bank of America are quite different and they do not show the undervaluation of your tables. At current prices Acacia is trading on 1.2x their DCF derived NPV valuation while Randgold trades on 1.6x NPV.
    Dec 10, 2014. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Credit Quality Issues Surface [View article]
    Another hit seems the lows of 2011 below $9 want to be revisited. Oil is dragging them down too much but it's panic obviously.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: YUM Again Lowered Its Earnings Outlook, Is It A Sell? [View article]
    Goldman Sachs was right.
    Dec 10, 2014. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Yield's Sake, Buy Western Asset Global High Income Fund Now [View article]
    BWG is another intriguing CEF for those believing dollar strength is reaching the last inning....
    Dec 8, 2014. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Contango In The VIX Futures Market Is Essential To Effectively Using The VIX ETFs [View article]
    I know the mechanics of VXX and unfortunately they differ from the VIX index. The rationale to long volatility later not now is that I fear another round of exuberance going into the new Year. I would be more comfortable to be short equity at the start of January. I would never buy options tout court, but just re-investing the cash received from the puts sold. I might just sell the puts anyway to collect the huge premium. Problem is if I am right about the direction implied volatilty will rise in case of a downward move in equities so that would work against the trade.
    Dec 8, 2014. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Contango In The VIX Futures Market Is Essential To Effectively Using The VIX ETFs [View article]
    Vix index @11.73
    VXX $25.82
    I am looking to short puts on VXX around year-end and buy calls. Starting from the short side most probably with strikes around $23 (now valued @58 cents), january expiration. Let's see where the VXX will be when index comes close to the psychological support of 10.
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sabine Royalty Trust Continues to Prove Itself [View article]
    Worth having a second look at the stock after the oil massacre.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment