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Nathan W Martin

Nathan W Martin
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  • Martin Sosnoff sees market share for the iPhone and iPad peaking soon and the iPod in slow decline, concluding that Apple's (AAPL) days as a growth stock could be ending unless it has a major new product. For some, the bad omens are starting to pile up.  [View news story]
    Wait a second, is this a retread of an article before the iPad release?

    He could've easily written this same story (and probably did) before the iPod, iPhone or iPad releases.

    "Martin Sosnoff sees market share for the iPod and iPhone peaking soon and the iMac in slow decline, concluding that Apple's (AAPL) days as a growth stock could be ending unless it has a major new product."

    He could be right this time, but I see little reason to trust it being different than before.
    Apr 6, 2011. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Cracks… Is the Party Over? [View article]
    Valuation is not a concern for V nor is the business model. The overhang in the stock in primarily due to regulatory uncertainty.

    In the 70s, much of the downside risk is already priced in.

    For investors, this stock should do well based on secular trends but the position could still be traded around until the regulatory language is defined: with buys in the $65-75 range and sales above ~$85.
    Oct 29, 2010. 01:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home prices are now falling almost everywhere, and based on inventory levels and other data, more declines likely are ahead. Home lending is poised to fall next year to the lowest level since 1996. Surely Obama has got to announce a homeowner bailout soon... doesn't he?  [View news story]
    Curse words!

    The angst over housing is so misplaced that it is mind boggling. This is a distraction from people just trying to call the LAST crisis. The future will be far more dependent upon corporate earnings and employment.

    The banks aren't going to fail (contrary to popular opinion in BAC) so who gives a flying **** if home prices are +5% or -5%.

    If one had adhered to all the real estate fears, then they would have missed out on the ~20% move in the IYR.
    Oct 26, 2010. 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The latest outlook from economic bloggers: even worse. The newest Kauffman survey finds grimmer forecasts than those in the August edition, with 99% saying conditions are "mixed, facing recession or in recession." There's widespread support for trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama - and widespread opposition to suspending foreclosures.  [View news story]
    Have these economic blog-casts made any money or are they just for show and textbooks?
    Oct 26, 2010. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pick Your Levels on Petrobras - and Beware Its Debt [View article]
    I like NOV as a derivative play on PBR's offshore expansion. Although its Brazilian competitors will likely get the lion's share of the business, NOV's Brazilian facilities will give it access to bid on the PBR rig build out. Their technology should give them a number of orders.
    Oct 22, 2010. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • George Soros sums up the state of the U.S. economy: "Blah." Lamenting the current "preoccupation with fiscal rectitude” in the U.S. and elsewhere, Soros says austerity "is the right policy at the wrong time." He marvels at how quickly China has risen to become the “motor” of the world economy, and declares gold the "ultimate bubble."  [View news story]
    By "ultimate" bubble, I think he is referring to the "last" bubble (that has yet to pop), not the "biggest" bubble.

    www.merriam-webster.co...
    Sep 15, 2010. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "I am a huge bull on this country," Warren Buffett says in ruling out a second recession. Businesses owned by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) are growing and "coming back almost across the board."  [View news story]
    Clearly talking a bit of his own book but the fact he is employing more people and sees strength across his business is good news.
    Sep 13, 2010. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The "equity cult" is dead, proclaims Citi's Robert Buckland, and it will mean trillions in outflows from stocks - a reduction in equity holdings to ~20% of total assets, implying a further $1.9T reduction in equity weightings from U.S. private sector pension funds alone. Brace yourself for "considerable institutional selling to come."  [View news story]
    As a footnote in the past two weeks, I've liquidated nearly all of my exposure to Govt bonds. I haven't invested that money in stocks but rather brokerage CDs and in cash. I see as much risk to bonds with less upside potential than I see with the stock market.
    Sep 3, 2010. 10:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The "equity cult" is dead, proclaims Citi's Robert Buckland, and it will mean trillions in outflows from stocks - a reduction in equity holdings to ~20% of total assets, implying a further $1.9T reduction in equity weightings from U.S. private sector pension funds alone. Brace yourself for "considerable institutional selling to come."  [View news story]
    It is definitively true that more Americans are more wary of the stock market which will in turn almost certainly ensure that the stock market is not the next bubble ---> the extreme upside in stocks is limited. However, that does not mean that stocks can't climb slowly with intermittent sharp selloffs over several years. In 5-10 years when the market is higher but has also had many mini-bear markets and the retail investor gets interested again then it will be time to scale out of stocks and into bonds.
    Sep 3, 2010. 10:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric (GE +3.7%) signals it may be coming out of its defensive crouch, as one of its vice chairmen says it could spend some $30B on acquisitions - compatible with plans to boost its dividend and buy back shares. One analyst calls it a "sea change" in the company's thinking.  [View news story]
    So many industries could be subject to a GE takeover: medical equipment, energy (oil, gas, nuclear), transportation suppliers (rail, jet)... I've always thought that FSLR would fit in well and put GE as the ultimate top US Solar player.
    Sep 1, 2010. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An influential technology analyst says Apple (AAPL +0.7%) needs to start returning some of its $46B cash hoard to shareholders through a regular dividend or share repurchases. Apple's likely response: Microsoft (MSFT) pays a dividend. We do not want to be Microsoft.  [View news story]
    They could buy Barnes & Noble with their free cash flow this quarter.
    Although I'd really like for them to just buyout ~100 locations in order to expand Apple's retail footprint rapidly.
    Aug 12, 2010. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An influential technology analyst says Apple (AAPL +0.7%) needs to start returning some of its $46B cash hoard to shareholders through a regular dividend or share repurchases. Apple's likely response: Microsoft (MSFT) pays a dividend. We do not want to be Microsoft.  [View news story]
    I can't imagine them not returning or spending some money once their cash levels surpass $50 billion. It is good to have financial flexibility but it is also difficult to think of a situation in which $50 billion cash would be needed, especially for a company with zero debt and whose bonds would be gobbled up.
    Aug 12, 2010. 04:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With corporate profits now above pre-bubble highs, Steven Pearlstein wonders why the Chamber of Commerce is so quick to fault the government for the dearth of new jobs.  [View news story]
    I'm prepared for the negative blowback for this statement: I like Steven Pearlstein's work because he seems less reliant on economic dogmatism and more on common sense interpretation of the data.
    Jul 30, 2010. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Score one for market info: Equities are responding to much-discussed stress test results with a collective yawn. The S&P 500 is a mere $0.06 down and financials are essentially flat. The euro - up for a minute after the release of the results - is now -0.3% against the dollar, but flat against yen. Even Treasurys have trimmed losses to move to flat across the curve. All of which probably means a resounding win for regulators.  [View news story]
    Yawn? ...S&P testing 1100.
    Jul 23, 2010. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's a "dangerous disconnect" in the housing market, Diana Olick says: Housing starts are at an all-time low while the home vacancy rate is rising. If more cities follow Los Angeles' lead and start levying big fines on banks that let foreclosed property fall into disrepair, a surge of repossessed homes added to the mix could sink home prices more than expected.  [View news story]
    The best thing for housing is fewer new homes. Population is still growing. Job losses have subsided (as of now). Interest rates are low. Time and possibly lower price will resolve this issue.

    If real estate stocks used Diana Olic's advice, they'd be 50% lower but the "frightening" gap is between the rhetoric of another housing crash and the stock prices of homebuilders, REITs, home suppliers, etc... I'm with the investors on this one.
    Jul 14, 2010. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
87 Comments
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