Mudduckk

Nov. New Home Sales: -11.3% to 355K vs. 425K expected, 430K prior. Months' supply 7.9 vs. 6.7 prior. New home sales are based on contracts signed, so these numbers are what the market looks like post stimulus credit.

Not a green shoot.

Those stifling restrictions: Cemex (CX -2.1%) is ready to pay higher debt costs to get out from under spending limits imposed by bank debt it took on this summer, as part of a renegotiation to avoid default. The company may sell $1B in seven-year notes between 9.5% and 9.75%, well over the bank debt's 6% average.

Here's the canary in the sovereign default coal mine. Dubai Mexico. Spreads are increasing 350 basis points.

Joseph Gagnon of the Peterson Institute reckons that what the world needs is a whole lot more QE (.pdf). He recommends the Fed buy another $2T in long-term debt; the ECB drop rates to 0.5%; BoJ should commit to 1% inflation and buy another ¥100T in debt; and BoE should pick up another £200B in long-term sterling. (via)

Tax collection will be the high growth job sector if we follow this report's advice.

Continental (CAL) to issue $200M in new debt for general corporate purposes. Shares -4.9% premarket. (PR)

Yes. Some call him 'Tim'


On Dec 07 10:25 AM Tony Petroski wrote:

> And there are people who will take them up on this?

Initial Jobless Claims: -5K to 457K vs. 485K expected. Continuing claims +28K to 5,465,000.

Unemploymnt continuing claims exceeds initial by nearly 25K, not adding jobs, not bullish, just running out of heads to cut.

ABC Consumer Confidence Poll: -45, up from -47 last week, and slightly better than its 2009 average of -48, but still on track for its worst year in 23 years of polling. Just 28% think it's a good time to buy things, 45% rate their personal finances positively, and 9% rate the national economy positively.

So EZ 2B confident consumer with strategic default.The instant pay raise.14% borrowers behind or in default.

On Taubman Properties

Anyone thinking Dubai is a one off need look no further than the increasingly negative trends shown here. Thanks Reggie.

Will Microsoft Get Squeezed by Chrome OS?

I am sooo tired of Win 7 blue screen freeze. Win Vista blew chunks too! I am no tech genius, have no tech support, and not into wasting time fixing and optimizing CPU's. Not my role in life. Just like the BMW owner who has other things to do than screw with his car. I just want an OS that works and works impeccably.

The more all of my computing, software, needs are housed, maintained, upgraded and protected in the cloud the better. Chrome OS is the catalyst for a secular shift in computing utilization. Computing is a means to an end. It should not be the tail that wags the dog.

I see enterprises moving to Google Apps and away from MS Office; City of LA, Jaguar to name two. IT budget savings are HUGE. The writer who suggested road warriors must have their high end Win machines to impress clientele, is a dinosaur. Clients expect value, and a good way to show it is through utilizing Chrome and the cloud apps which have the market validation that proves Google does "more with less".

A bad way to show clients that you value the fees they pay is to show up with a fancy schmancy set up. That may have worked pre-Lehman, but in the new normal clients will show you where to stick your high end machine. Especially as more and more enterprises move to Google Apps, they will come to understand that you just don't get it.

Nov 24 08:55 AM unfaire wrote:
>
> But, we start to see the terrible effects of this intrasparent interface.
> Just ask someone with Windows Vista or Windows 7, they suffered so
> much Blue Screen Of Death as well as Screen Freeze. And, they are
> VERY slow in fixing them and the vendors like HP are hanging their
> customer high and dry. I believe many people are hoping Google
> Chrome OS or anyone else will come to relief them from the high
> cost and unnecessarily complicated Windows monopoly. Someday, > someone will succeed in dethroning Microsoft, as Microsoft
> did to IBM, big corporate users notwithstanding, if Microsoft keeps
> going the way they do today.

NABE Survey: Recovery Won't Remain Jobless Very Much Longer

Wait...electric consumption down over 3.3% YoY. Petroleum down over 1%. Isn't GDP is supposed to be directly correlated to energy consumption? Nobody gives Kwh away for free, but down in DC I hear dollars are very free. So I would not trust the GDP stats with your money. Nor would I trust the NBES "homers".

Here in the Midwest we are still losing jobs and cutting back hours, even in tech service companies with global exposure. The advice form tha man..."this is how it goes until futher notice" Oya, and this Nov layoff follows March's, "We're cutting back...10% accross the board paycuts and manadatory two week furloughs" Honestly dude, I don't know what green shoots you are smoking but you are way off. And, I don't know what company's are laying off when they are planning to add jobs in just a few months.

This week's Barrons puts it best. Jobs pay mortgages not points in the GDP. Ditto for the NBES wonks. Got jobs? My advice, until housing improves, the beatings will continue. Best wishes from the heartland.

Oct. Existing Home Sales: +10.1% to 6.1M vs. 5.7M expected and 5.57M in September. Month's supply 7 vs. 7.8 prior. Median price -1.7% Y/Y to $173,100.

Friday's news suggests 14% of homeowners must believe today's housing news is tomorrows trend. See how easy it is to lead the sheeple astray. short $SPY

Disquieting analysis (.pdf) from the National Employment Law Project, which warns 1M U.S. workers will become ineligible for unemployment benefits in January 2010 unless Congress reauthorizes the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act’s unemployment insurance programs. By March, it says, nearly 3M unemployed will have no benefits.

When does unemployment become a leading indicator?

U.S. Treasuries in a Bubble, Not Commodities

When will GLD start paying a risk free dividend? Consider what investors will prefer if come DIA correction from a deflationary credit collapse. Refer to catering theory, investors prefer securities with a coupon, especially when real rates are flat or declining, because the coupon get's sweeter and sweeter. Ask yourself, why did Buffet get a 10% preferred from GS. Because he knew in a credit deleveraging cycle his rate of return improves as the market rate declines. He read Bernanke's work and he bet the man would implement a sympathetic monetary policy. He's an advisor to Obama, and he bet Obama would choose to retain Dr. Ben as head of the fed and chief money printer.

I admit GLD is nice. As a hedge, but not as a primary investment strategy. I echo David Rosenberg's sentiment on this. He has been suggesting commodities and defensive income investments including bonds. As of late he has been specifically suggesting GLD. But to suggest a bond bubble is in the works is foolish. Wake me up when the US economy has wiped out between 30 to 40% more of its debt, until then inflation will remain a boogey man.

Goldman Sachs' (GS) CEO explains why he pays more: It's because my guys make more money, duh. "What people fail to mention is that net income generated per head is a multiple of our peer average. The people of Goldman Sachs are among the most productive in the world."

Ummm...now if we measure pay based on how many jobs are created/destroyed per head at GS - how would they rate?

Options Trader Wrong-Way Weekly Wrap-Up: Party Like It's 1999

Ah yet another post with a financialist theme. Bravo Philip!

Year-on-year comparisons of wages are at their lowest in at least 27 years, with total compensation up only 1.5% - and down a sharp 1.8% from Q2.

@bbro its easy to increase disposable income when you stop paying you mortgage. Put the data with escalating prime default rate.


On Oct 30 09:31 AM bbro wrote:

> Flatness due to the massive job loss....when you look at disposable
>
> income to nonfarm employees year over year is up 4.8%......what out
>
> when we get modest job growth!!!....