WFlorid

Reality Check for Japanese Commodity Price Estimates

Thank you for these insights into METI's thinking.

The Japanese oil industry seems to have some kind of collective disfunction on its thinking about oil prices. Both of the listed oil producers (Inpex 1605 and Japex 1662) have forecast their earnings this year on prices of $85/bbl and $80 /bbl, respectively, and neither have revised their earnings upward, despite the fact that oil has been above $120 for the entire reporting period (now in its fifth month). I wonder why Japanese oil industry leaders are making analyses so far away from the market price. Can they really hope to prove this is a temporary peak?

Cash-Rich Non-U.S. Companies Trading in the U.S.

Why doesn't Toyota make your list?

A Few Reasons to Buy Yen

I don't follow a couple of things here:
1. Can it ever be a good sign for a currency when inflation increases?
2. The issue here is real interest rates, I think. Doesn't the yen have a long way to go on real rates before it competes with USD and EUR?

Escaping Japan's Potential Value Trap

Interesting idea. How are you measuring which companies are global and have strong governance. Will you create a fund or an index of such stocks?

Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Pre-Earnings Downside Risk?

I appreciate the use of data in the article - it made your overall argument more clear. Thanks!

Global 'Oil Shock' Rattles World Stock Markets

Very nice overview of macro trends. Thanks!

Is This Japan Circa 1992?

Has the dollar depreciated by 50% against the yen?

Pricing Japanese Banks for Bankruptcy is Overdoing It

Dear Mr. Whitten,

While the headline is very interesting, I must say that it does not seem to be supported by facts. Could it be that you were sloppy in preparing this conclusion?

The most glaring issue is that you state that Japanese Banks as measured by Topix trade at a P/B ratio of 0.32. I checked the 95 publicly traded banks today that have positive P/B ratios. The average P/B is 0.85, the Mkt Cap weighted average is 1.1, and the median P/B was 0.77. I could find only one bank below your quoted level of 0.32, and that was Bank of Kochi, listed at 0.31. It is hard for me to understand how this data would lead to a market average of 0.32. Are these banks going bankrupt? Maybe, but I don't see how you could determine that from the price.

In addition, the chart shows "Nikkei" data, but the heading says banks are the cheapest "Topix" sector.

It seems to me that this is not the first time I noticed sloppy fact checking in your articles. I would be very grateful if you could work to improve the standards of Seeking Alpha, which I otherwise enjoy and find very useful.

Sincerely,

William L. Florida

“Chindia”: A Misleading Portfolio Concept

This is very interesting and useful, but the best measure would be correlation of returns. Why don't you write a follow-up to publish that?

Toyota Beats Estimates, Raises Guidance Conservatively

Can you comment on which suppliers are most likely to benefit?

Pfizer Considering Japan R&D Unit Spin Off

Thanks for the interesting coverage. I am curious how an independent R&D lab could make this work. Will they switch to a CRO model?

Japanese Property: Fear Has Overcome Greed

Thanks for the specific recommendations. What makes Mitsubishi Estate and Daibiru more attractive than other real estate firms?

Sony Financial IPO Talks Heat Up; PS3 Launch Date Set for Europe

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Sony Financial IPO Talks Heat Up; PS3 Launch Date Set for Europe

This was a useful article - is there any follow up on how this IPO is going and what the price will be? How is the valuation relative to other financial companies in Japan? Also, I saw Warren Buffett expressed interest in this operation. Why?