WFlorid

Reality Check for Japanese Commodity Price Estimates

Thank you for these insights into METI's thinking.

The Japanese oil industry seems to have some kind of collective disfunction on its thinking about oil prices. Both of the listed oil producers (Inpex 1605 and Japex 1662) have forecast their earnings this year on prices of $85/bbl and $80 /bbl, respectively, and neither have revised their earnings upward, despite the fact that oil has been above $120 for the entire reporting period (now in its fifth month). I wonder why Japanese oil industry leaders are making analyses so far away from the market price. Can they really hope to prove this is a temporary peak?