UncleFred

The Crude Reality

Short term (6 months) oil down, to $110/barrel; intermediate term (6 months - 5 years) oil up, to ~$150/barrel; long term (5 - 10 years) oil up (~$150/barrel; ultra long term (10 - 20 years) oil at $110/barrel (all measured in today's dollars).

Save this, and see.

Adjusted for Income & Fuel Efficiency Increases, Gas Today is Almost 50% Below Record High

Despite other disparaging remarks, this is an interesting way to look at these high oil prices. Another aspect to add to the analysis cannot be bad, unless the data used is bad, and that doesn't seem to be the case here, providing a proper definition of "per capita disposable income" is being used.

Peak Oil is a Cost Issue

Jim's analysis is excellent. And the part about EROEI especially relevant.

Underlying all shortages is this simple premise: we all live on a big round spaceship called Earth that can support a certain population in a sustainable manner. But we have far, far too many people on our spaceship to make many, many resources "sustainable". This goes double for non-renewables like oil. As long as organized religions exhort their followers to "multiply and be plentiful", (read "Give me more donors") we are in deep trouble. Read "The End of Faith".

Why Oil Is Actually Cheap At $75

Expect some short term volatility, but over the long run, Faisal is right on the money. Increasing demand for something in decreasing supply, like oil, will inevitably lead to increased price/unit. This is why the CANROYs are such wonderful investments: huge supply of terrorist and hurricane immune oil in a politically stable environment, and paying great dividends on top of that. Check out AAV, HTE, ERF, PWE, PWI for the last five years. Look at the price appreciation, then calculate what the dividends would have paid you, when they average ~12% (AFTER the Canadian tax). FDG is a coal play on a somewhat similar theme.