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JasonG609

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  • The Victors Write The History Books, Even In Finance [View article]
    Great article. Thanks for writing.
    Aug 21 08:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • uSell: An Unknown ReCommerce Marketplace With An Impressive Growth Story [View article]
    i would think next catalyst is iPhone 6, no? would think a TON of people are waiting to upgrade and should provide a nice flow of sellers to USELL.

    almost make sense to do a specific ad geared iPhone users...
    Aug 15 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Market Makers [View article]
    From a TA perspective, it's very encouraging to see MU make new 52wk highs, along with the NASDAQ, in September.

    SNDK has yet to do this.
    Sep 15 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Why This Time It Really Is Different [View article]
    From Barrons Tech Trader blog:

    Samsung: Morgan Stanley Says Hold; Memory Prices Set to Peak

    By Tiernan Ray

    Morgan Stanley semiconductor analysts Shawn Kim and Ka Keun Lee and staff this afternoon want you to know that there is “no more upside” in the memory chip market, as prices are primed to peak and there is rising risk to estimates.

    “We would reduce positions in the memory sector across regions, as getting the industry call right is a lot more important than picking stocks in the memory sector, as these stocks move in a pack,” writes Kim.

    The team cut Samsung Electronics (005930KS) stock to Equal Weight from Overweight, and cut SK Hynix (000660KS) to Underweight from Overweight. Today’s downgrades follow a cut in rating for SanDisk (SNDK) two weeks to Equal Weight by colleague Joseph Moore. Micron Technology (MU) is also rated Equal Weight. Colleague Kazuo Yoshikawa today cut Toshiba‘s (6502JP) rating to Equal Weight from Overweight as well. The firm’s Francois Meunier is still bullish on ASML Holding NV (ASML) as an equipment supplier to memeory names, given what is seen to be rising capital spending for production.

    “We expect DRAM revenue growth, ASPs and operating margins to peak in 3Q13,” writes Kim, as “there is growing risk that a normal ASP decline cycle will commence.”

    Investors think things are different this time around with respect to traditional memory supply-demand cycles, writes Kim, but he thinks they’re mistaken:

    Most investors we met are convinced that this time it is different – new wafer capacity will not be added for memory, given that pushing the envelope on geometry no longer works, due to cost limitations beyond 2XY nanometer technology, i.e., the cost per transistor is no longer going down. However, industries do not stay in a vacuum or steady state when faced with huge excess returns building and significant shortage heading into 2H13. We are now seeing evidence of new capex, capex pull-in and faster technology migration. This is similar to 2010, due to persistent shortage conditions, and, historically, this type of industry environment has led to bigger investments in the following year. The July earnings season is around the corner, and we lean toward consuming capex numbers and new supply growth as a sign of further imbalance entering 2014.

    Rather, Kim points to several recent developments indicating plans for increased supply:

    Samsung raised its 2013 capex to W24tr, with W13tr for memory and equally allocated to DRAM and NAND. Samsung converted its logic fab to DRAM. We estimate this to be equivalent to about 25k monthly wafers capacity, or 6.7% of the company’s existing total capacity. Its new NAND fab in China is likely to ramp earlier in 2014 [...] Hynix M12 fab NAND capacity expansion could amount to 30k wafers per month. Equipment move-in is likely to start in 3Q13 and production by year-end [...] Inotera raised its 2013 capex from NT$4.5bn to NT$8.0bn. The increase in capex is for immersion tool, to enhance 30nm productivity and 20nm advanced node migration. Management thinks 2014 capex could be substantial as well [...] Elpida plans to build additional capacity at its 12-inch wafer plant in Hiroshima, Japan, to meet growing demand for mobile DRAM chips. Monthly capacity at the facility is close to 120,000 wafers, of which 80% is utilized for the manufacture of mobile DRAM used for smartphones [...] Toshiba plans to expand the capacity of its NAND flash chip fabrication facility in Yokkaichi, Japan, with a nearly ¥30bn (US$300m) investment. Toshiba will begin construction on Phase 2 of Fab 5 in August 2013, with completion slated for the summer of 2014. The expanded facility will also produce 3D NAND memory, in addition to additional capacity for chips on more advanced nodes [...] Micron is looking to shift 60,000 wafers of capacity from DRAM to NAND flash chip production at its 12-inch fab in Singapore. As a result, total production capacity for NAND flash will climb to ~240,000 12-inch wafers from the current 180,000 units.

    The result will be falling prices:

    Rising supply growth suggests that pricing power will be limited during the next one to two years, and a pricing recession would lead to earnings risk in 2014. We reduce our DRAM blended ASP in 2014e by 6%, from US$0.77 (per 1Gb equivalent) to US$0.72. Our NAND pricing assumption falls by 9% from US$0.47 to US$0.43 on a per 8Gb equivalent. We cut our EPS in 2014e to reflect a lower pricing outlook. Current consensus earnings expectations for 2014 are high for memory, with 27% growth, compared to 17% earnings growth for our global memory universe. As Exhibit 2 indicates, consensus earnings revisions are approaching historical peak levels, and if supply turns out to be stronger than consensus expects, we would expect earnings revisions to turn negative for the industry.
    Jul 30 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: SK Hynix Earnings Show What's Ahead [View article]
    Report on the wire stating: Micron Sinks on Reports of Weak Q3 NAND Demand.

    "DigiTimes reports that Q3 NAND demand may be weaker than expected. SanDisk Corp. also declined."
    Jul 26 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron/Intel: Taking Leadership In NAND Memory [View article]
    As the Feds turn the screws on SAC Capital, it's nice to see Stevie "In-the-Know" Cohen owns almost 19M shares!

    http://bit.ly/15SnFps
    Jul 19 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Second Quarter And Second Half 2013 [View article]
    Also a bearish note from Citi this morning. From Barrons:

    Glen Yeung of Citigroup, meanwhile, writes that “as we begin the second half of 2013, growth remains elusive” for the semiconductor group as a whole.

    Yeung, who has a Hold rating on Intel shares, and a $24 price target, writes that a bounce in Q3 from sales of Intel’s Haswell won’t be able to offset the effect of a weakening PC market, and he cut his full-year estimate for Intel to $52.27 billion in revenue and $1.80 in profit from a prior $53.1 billion and $1.82.
    Jul 8 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wound Care Market: The Promise Of Healing [View article]
    Out of curiosity, have you checked out the wound care company, MiMedx (MDXG)?

    They have a pretty impressive technology in terms of wound care.
    Apr 21 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greystone Logistics: A Classic Valuation Gap [View article]
    Great article, Ian!
    Mar 14 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAPL Boosts The Market As The Federal Reserve Announces Rate Policy [View instapost]
    I believe IBD called yesterday a Follow-Through Day, no?
    Apr 26 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Bonds - The Unbeaten Path To Secure Investment Growth [View article]
    Thanks for the review... Think you've got some of the best articles on Seeking Alpha.

    Have a great weekend.

    j
    Nov 11 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Aggressive Growth Picks Worth Buying Now [View article]
    Good article, thanks for posting.

    Just a heads up... there has been a TON of insider selling in UA recently, actually this year.

    Thanks again for a great read!
    Nov 9 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Likely Additions to the Russell 2000 [View article]
    I believe ICLK announces earnings this Tuesday, May 10th, after the market closes... NO?
    May 6 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Stocks Currently Enriching Investors by Raising Dividends [View article]
    D4L ~

    I've been looking at CLCT for a little while. Wish I'd pulled the trigger earlier. Mgmt seems very solid. I'm a bit apprehensive about such a high yield.

    You think it's sustainable? Thoughts?

    Thanks.
    Oct 8 10:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why S&P 1170 Would Be a Perfect Fit for Fibonacci Fans [View article]
    David X: Did you mean the July 2nd lows? The April 26th high / July 2nd low is what i've been using for basic fibonacci measurements.

    Thanks!
    Oct 1 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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