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  • Feeling Unfulfilled By The Volatility Tease? [View article]
    you could have sold some on monday, bought back yesterday, and be ready to sell again today

    With volatility it's usually a good idea to react quick and monitor and change your thesis by the day
    Jul 2, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feeling Unfulfilled By The Volatility Tease? [View article]
    good question

    I usually focus on the front months but hadn't noticed november missing, maybe somebody more knowledgeable could enlighten us
    Jul 2, 2015. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feeling Unfulfilled By The Volatility Tease? [View article]
    Yeah it's no fun you have to go the the CBOE website but not as good as vixcentral.
    Jul 2, 2015. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World [View article]
    I suppose you meant or buy VXX. Shorting XIV is the way to go when wanting to be long volatility as the drag works in your favor instead of against you.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Surges 35% On Grexit Fears: It's Time To (Start) Shorting The VIX [View article]
    "Should the Greek crisis devolve into a continent-wide crisis that threatens to lead to a long-term increase in volatility, I will plan to exit the position and cut my losses."

    How will you determine this to be the case? And at that point wouldn't you expect at least a 2010 or 2011 style meltdown were VXX triples in value? So with a 12% portfolio concentration, your looking at potentially loosing 30+ percent if this does end up being just the beginning of a major market breakdown.
    Jul 1, 2015. 05:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Surges 35% On Grexit Fears: It's Time To (Start) Shorting The VIX [View article]
    I would take that as a contrarian indicator, i.e. when everyone's bullish the market's probably due to drop, when everyone's bearish the inverse happens.

    Basically wall street's discrete way to relieve people of their money.
    Jul 1, 2015. 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Active Day For Volatility [View instapost]
    Why not take a small short on UVXY or sell a few calls, just a small position, in case it keeps rallying? 20% + move has got to be worth at least a few pennies when (eventually) it heads back down.
    Jun 29, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Contango Monthly Outlook - July 2015: The Hunt For Disaster Is The New Gold Rush [View instapost]

    Enjoyed your telling with your experiences on the long side of UVXY. Very similar to what i've gone through and experienced, it's highly difficult to make money on the long side, decide when to get out ect. Seeing a large win vanish in an instant and turn into a large loss has got to be more painful than just having a large loss to begin with.

    After about 18 months of trading this vehicle on both sides (however mostly short), I've decided to take much smaller positions sides and always try to be hedged to some degree. Working out good so far in the last six months compared to the first 12.

    As far as your recommendation to not touch, i would beg to differ. These etfs provide some of the easiest money to be made most of the time, and some high difficulty only during small periods. The keys seem to be have a system to indicate mostly a long or short bias (you have a good one with your vixcontango oscillator), use small position sizing, be willing to add or double down when necessary, and always maintain some sort of spread or hedge.

    Doing this will help to have a more mechanical approach to it and avoid the emotions and irrationality that can come with too big of a position and therefore big potential losses.
    Jun 29, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adoption Of VXUP As A Hedging Instrument Could Transform Investment Management [View article]
    "In such a scenario, it is almost facile and axiomatic to point out that volatility would skyrocket. A hedge like VXUP would be absolutely essential to reduce a portfolio's correlation to both stocks and to bonds during such a nightmare."

    So let's see how well VXUP did during two big up days on the Vix this past month. On the 26th may we had a 23.7% gain from the days high to the previous days low. VXUP corresponded with a 4.9% gain.

    Then on the 15th of june there was a 17.0% gain in the vix, with a 4.1% gain in VXUP.

    Your arguments that increased volume will fix this discrepancy are invalid as increased volume cannot by itself fix what is essentially a broken etf.

    As a previous poster commented, only if the etf creators step in and fix the daily premium/discount then this will only act as a mediocre closed end fund.
    Jun 28, 2015. 11:59 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Deal For Greece? [View article]
    So is a 1/2% move down considered 'tanking' these days?
    Jun 24, 2015. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Demand Destruction Keeps Oil On The Selling Block [View article]
    Another great article FM, really like your analysis and specially your talk on the effects of shorting and leveraged etfs.

    Can't believe how many oil bulls are found in these comments.

    Better than pick one side or the other, why not trade both sides on strength by selling options on either UCO/SCO on up days?

    A small move either way allows one to buy back the options at between 10-30% less, repeat this a few times and you have more than enough for the eventual payout.

    Even when you do have to payout (by taking assignment on a loosing position) you can turn around and sell puts on those. All the while collecting juicy premiums that while won't be homeruns, they can be quick singles and doubles that will steadily increase your gains.

    For me this is better than than trying to guess which direction oil is going, betting wrong and loosing, or betting right and jumping into a vehicle like USO and still underperform by 30-40%.
    Jun 20, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting VXX And Sleep: How To Do Both [View article]
    Usually first choice for me is short UVXY, if not available then go to VXX. If neither is available for that day, we'll you'll have to go long XIV and then check back tomorrow see if these can be shorted then. I agree neither is a perfect replacement, but can come close enough for a day or two till the shares are available.

    The weird thing right now is UVXY has been hard to borrow, yet there hasn't been any spike. Whats up with that?
    Jun 19, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is The Only Commodity I Want To Own Right Now [View article]
    Nice timing on your article. Two 12+ % days up on UGAZ.
    Jun 9, 2015. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is The Only Commodity I Want To Own Right Now [View article]
    I short DGAZ or UGAZ on a nearly daily basis. Since about November of last year i've encountered 2 or 3 instances were shares weren't available to short. You can usually switch to KOLD or BOIL at that time.

    Borrow rates are around 3-5% on interactive brokers.
    Jun 9, 2015. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last True Arbitrages [View article]
    Another pair that would probably work out pretty sweet would be JNUG/JDST, specially as gold keeps chopping around.
    May 16, 2015. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment