Seeking Alpha

jeezuz30

jeezuz30
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jeezuz30's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    Maybe the speed of this snapback has everybody nervous and thinking it's not gonna last. With the russel and the nasdaq seemingly breaking out and spx at new highs, it's tough to see how we can't at least get another 20-30 points higher on spx. By that time the fear will probably subside, which will be a good time for the market to take another (possibly deeper) dive and volatility to rise.

    For now remaining in the short volatility trades until the market tells me otherwise.
    Oct 31 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are ETFs With The Biggest Price Upside Potential, From Market-Maker Forecasts, The Best? [View article]
    "Thus true risk of actual loss and the threat of loss are often quite different things. For many investors, when the threat gets bad enough they may convert threat into reality and take a loss that could be corrected with patience and toughness."

    Very well said Peter, specially if dealing with volatility products. The daily moves in these (SVXY, UVXY) is tough to watch, and can and many times does make people pull the trigger at the wrong times. However if one just holds these (SVXY, UVXY in short) through the move they would come out far ahead of most of these other ETFs. A defined time period like you recommend or a target or for some more involved maybe some technical indicators to signal the trend change.

    Thanks for your continuing work and educational articles.
    Oct 31 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    Still remain short, though I put some tight stops on my UVXY today and then had to chase it back down, so lost a few points. No big deal, just didn't want to give back all the profits on that one in case the market tanked today.
    Oct 29 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    Mark, what do you see as the advantage for towards the end of the week as compared to earlier?
    Oct 29 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    Yeah Ikkyu that's basically what I meant. At elevated levels selling calls on UVXY can be very lucrative, i'm just looking for a way at reducing the risk in case it goes against me, like in the beginning of October. Buying puts does not work as good because of the high premiums.

    So maybe selling an at the money call and buying an out of the money call can be a solution. I'm pretty new at the options game but definitely learning along the way.

    Also I would think the fact that Vix futures trade 24 hrs a day would dampen any knee jerk type of reactions that would have taken place when everybody goes an trades at the open. I don't know, maybe someone will come up with a study after some time comparing vix futures moves overnight before/after the 24 hr implementation.

    Thanks and good luck to you also.
    Oct 29 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    Good article from Peter Way on SVXY, in my opinion he seems to be unbiased generally in his articles.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 29 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    Also slowly messing with some options after a disastrous experience selling naked UVXY calls.

    This time on UVXY spikes ill sell a call (example yesterday sold the Dec 19' 31 Call) and buy a call further out of the money (bought the Dec19' 46 Call). I'll buy back the short call and sell the long today as UVXY went down nicely.

    If UVXY had gone up that's were the difficult part lies . Do I sell the long call and hold on to the short for the next day? Sell/cover both? This part is just gonna take some experimentation, education, and just plain experience to figure out. Better to learn early though the tough art of hedging.
    Oct 28 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    RJL, Congratulations on your winning trades!

    I'm still sitting on paper gains, nervously. Rolled all of my SVXY in my interactive brokers account into a short UVXY position and took some gains from there. I just like the faster drop of UVXY and slower recovery compared to the slower recovery or SVXY but also fast drop.

    My other accounts im holding XIV with stop loss below fridays' low, though i may adjust today after the large gain. Used to just let these run without stop losses, however the whipsaws in October left me a bit weary. My stop loss on UVXY is the 8 day EMA. That works very well for UVXY on the way down, not so much for XIV/SVXY on the way up.

    I plan on exiting/going long when both stochastics point up and the fast one breaks above the oversold condition (20). Just entering that on UVXY today so maybe this can be the start to a good month or so of nice contango gains.
    Oct 28 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    Rock, Since most of QE has already taken place, and only 15B left could that already be priced in the market? How was the end of the last 2 QEs, was it all at once or tapered like this one? I wasn't in the markets then but thought this was the first tapered QE.

    Seems to me the markets throw their tantrums when new information becomes available, such as taper tantrum last year ect. I'm definitely with you that the past is indicative of what can happen again this time, though maybe the timing of it was done to reduce damage (right at end of the year/santa claus time).
    Oct 28 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    RJ, what's your main strategy for entering/exiting your volatility positions? Are you more of a day by day trader, use fundamental or technicals? thanks
    Oct 27 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    Good to see you back Rock, when or what would be your sell signal to exit UPRO, SVXY if your expecting a correction this fall? Or would you just hang on to both and not add any additional?
    Oct 27 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Volatility Trade Up 25% In 6 Days: What Now? [View article]
    Thanks for the reply Stephen,

    I agree that UVXY is definitely a harder trade since it has huge up and down days when volatility is increasing, making holding to a position with daily + or - 25% fluctuation very difficult.

    Could one possibly short XIV/SVXY instead of going long UVXY, with those two the recoveries on down volatility days are not as strong as the losses on UVXY on down volatility days. Example look at the candles on 10/13 vs 10/20 on an example of an up volatility day vs down. UVXY easily reclaiming most of its candle on the way down, SVXY only half of the candle on the way back up. I understand this is due to the inverse volatility decay but something to consider when looking at UVXY vs SVXY.

    When going short volatility shorting UVXY is definitely the way to go. During the period were XIV/SVXY didn't reach new highs UVXY did reach new lows, though only marginal.

    As far as the FED, i thought they were supposed to be independent of who's in charge, dems or reps, though the opposite may seem true at times.

    Either way , thanks for your work and I'll have a look at your other article from the above link.

    Edit: The going short SVXY instead of long UVXY would be better only on small moves, less than 100%, other wise the speed of the moves would not allow someone to rebalance quickly enough to capture say a 200 or 300 percent up move.
    Oct 25 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Volatility Trade Up 25% In 6 Days: What Now? [View article]
    Thanks for the link Seppo i will have to go through it when i have a chance
    Oct 25 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Volatility Trade Up 25% In 6 Days: What Now? [View article]
    Stephe, you once wrote a very good article about shorting volatility products, the vix comet or something along those line.

    Now however most of your comments seem to be on the bearish side of things, like your just expecting the market to tank and all that. Are you not using your previous strategies anymore? Do you believe they can no longer be profitable? What caused the change and outlook, fed actions?
    Oct 25 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big One? How To Play This Draw (VCO - 2.1) [View instapost]
    The positive thing is that usually after very choppy sessions and specially towards the end of the year UVXY takes an extended drop, due to the high contango. This can usually result in a holding period of 1-3 months with little volatility and constantly decaying UVXY (or rising SVXY).
    Oct 24 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
339 Comments
182 Likes