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  • What Does A Stock Market Bottom Look Like? [View article]
    Would be interesting to see how the vix behaved during these moves.
    Sep 4, 2015. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Peak Is In [View article]
    Both VQT and PHDG have done awful as hedges during this correction.
    Sep 4, 2015. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Sends Rare Signal At The August 2015 Month-End Close [View article]
    Nice article and analysis,

    It does seem like a turning point in the last couple of weeks, however this sentence threw me off guard:

    "In my opinion, the market will show 20-30% loses year over year before it will be able to resume an upward trajectory whereby it is reasonably safe to average in on long, diversified market positions."

    If by market you mean the dow, it's already suffered about a 16-17% decline, and if your saying we can go down 20-30 percent then were looking at an additional 4-14% downside. But what if the market takes off from here? What is the upside risk that your potentially missing out on in order to guard for another possible single digit decline?
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The VIX? [View article]
    Be careful using $UVXY for hedging. Right now it looks like a no-brainer since it shot up a cool 274% from its lows. But these instances are rare, most of the time it will be a looser.
    Sep 2, 2015. 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After A Bad Day In Dodge Today, Are We Headed For The OK Corral Tomorrow? [View article]
    Sometimes the best time to buy is when it feels like the worst time.

    In this case instead of buying SVXY or XIV, it may be better to sell expensive OTM calls on $UVXY. These can be partially hedged with the much cheaper $VXX OTM calls.

    An example the $UVXY Oct. 2nd 120 call could have been sold for between 14-15 dollars yesterday after the 30% spike. Partial protection could be offered by buying 3X $VXX Oct. 2nd 40 calls for about 1.80-1.9 each.

    Today that $UVXY call could be bought back from between $5-6 bucks. Much better risk/reward in my opinion than potentially loosing 40-60% in $XIV/$SVXY if this volatility drags on. Of course there may be temporary losses on the short calls that one has to stomach.

    I realize that spread is not perfect, and your brokerage software will not even calculate the margin requirements properly since it's 2 different securities, but one can adjust to suit their risk tolerance.
    Sep 2, 2015. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley calls the bottom for global stock markets [View news story]
    They want you to buy so they can sell some more.
    Sep 2, 2015. 09:52 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The VIX? [View article]
    Very nice info its...

    This and some of your other comments have motivated me to buy and study up on Hull's Options futures and other derivatives.

    I admit actually going through and figuring out the sample questions makes a big difference in retention compared to just reading a book without doing any work. Tough barely in the 3rd chapter now so a long ways from figuring out everything there is to learn from it.

    I thank you for this and for other bits of insight picked up from some of your comments.
    Aug 31, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears Are Confident U.S. Equities Will Now Downtrend -- But Are They Hogs Waiting To Get Slaughtered? [View article]
    How many years do they spend getting negative returns only to finally cash out?

    Also I wonder how much they cashed out their puts on Monday, the WSJ article said many of the gains were paper gains, which probably evaporated by the end of the week.
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Will Go Higher [View article]
    If you just ignore the media you will sleep better.
    Aug 31, 2015. 08:38 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fischer: Sept. move less likely, but hikes are coming [View news story]
    So will this past week be known as the Rate Hike Indecision Tantrum?
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In commodities chaos, natural gas touted as a relatively calm oasis [View news story]
    What a joke. Just wall street trying to convince the retail investor to jump in. Usually when volatility slows to a trickle it's right before it's getting ready for a big jump.
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The VIX? [View article]
    $uvxy was up a nice 70% or so this morning, however I usually try to just trade at the end of the day.

    This week and maybe the next couple weeks should provide plenty of opportunities. However, with this 70% one day move, circuit breakers and -5% open on the spx, you have to wonder if this is the top of the fear or only the beginning.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Oil Bear Is Now A Bull - The Case For Higher Crude Oil Prices [View article]
    Suppose two inverse leverage etfs are at $100 dollar starting value. On day 1, the bull drops 10% while the bear gains 10%. The next day the move is reversed and the bull gains 10% while the bear drops 10%. Now the values for both are set at 99 dollars. Compound this movement daily and with the leverage and you'll see some serious decay.

    For a clear visual go to, pull up a chart of UGAZ and DGAZ, the bull and bear natural gas etfs. Set it to monthly and you'll see the clear effect of the decay.
    Aug 6, 2015. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends In The Teenage Workforce [View article]
    I agree with your that both political parties are a joke, just pandering for votes and at the end only accomplishing what the highest paying lobbyists propose.

    More parent involvement helps, but at the end the school system probably needs some sort of reform, however not in a way to works only for the privileged while leaving the most vulnerable out to dry.
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UWTI And UGAZ: A Cautionary Tale Of Fortunes Won And Lost [View article]
    You should short those instead of buy them.
    Jul 17, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment