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  • Time To Short The VIX? [View article]
    Very nice info its...

    This and some of your other comments have motivated me to buy and study up on Hull's Options futures and other derivatives.

    I admit actually going through and figuring out the sample questions makes a big difference in retention compared to just reading a book without doing any work. Tough barely in the 3rd chapter now so a long ways from figuring out everything there is to learn from it.

    I thank you for this and for other bits of insight picked up from some of your comments.
    Aug 31, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears Are Confident U.S. Equities Will Now Downtrend -- But Are They Hogs Waiting To Get Slaughtered? [View article]
    How many years do they spend getting negative returns only to finally cash out?

    Also I wonder how much they cashed out their puts on Monday, the WSJ article said many of the gains were paper gains, which probably evaporated by the end of the week.
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Will Go Higher [View article]
    If you just ignore the media you will sleep better.
    Aug 31, 2015. 08:38 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fischer: Sept. move less likely, but hikes are coming [View news story]
    So will this past week be known as the Rate Hike Indecision Tantrum?
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In commodities chaos, natural gas touted as a relatively calm oasis [View news story]
    What a joke. Just wall street trying to convince the retail investor to jump in. Usually when volatility slows to a trickle it's right before it's getting ready for a big jump.
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The VIX? [View article]
    $uvxy was up a nice 70% or so this morning, however I usually try to just trade at the end of the day.

    This week and maybe the next couple weeks should provide plenty of opportunities. However, with this 70% one day move, circuit breakers and -5% open on the spx, you have to wonder if this is the top of the fear or only the beginning.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Oil Bear Is Now A Bull - The Case For Higher Crude Oil Prices [View article]
    Suppose two inverse leverage etfs are at $100 dollar starting value. On day 1, the bull drops 10% while the bear gains 10%. The next day the move is reversed and the bull gains 10% while the bear drops 10%. Now the values for both are set at 99 dollars. Compound this movement daily and with the leverage and you'll see some serious decay.

    For a clear visual go to, pull up a chart of UGAZ and DGAZ, the bull and bear natural gas etfs. Set it to monthly and you'll see the clear effect of the decay.
    Aug 6, 2015. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends In The Teenage Workforce [View article]
    I agree with your that both political parties are a joke, just pandering for votes and at the end only accomplishing what the highest paying lobbyists propose.

    More parent involvement helps, but at the end the school system probably needs some sort of reform, however not in a way to works only for the privileged while leaving the most vulnerable out to dry.
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UWTI And UGAZ: A Cautionary Tale Of Fortunes Won And Lost [View article]
    You should short those instead of buy them.
    Jul 17, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UWTI And UGAZ: A Cautionary Tale Of Fortunes Won And Lost [View article]

    I haven't had to many problems with getting shares recalled, though i have heard horror stories. Seems like there has to be some sort of malicious intent on part of your broker to recall the shares at the worst possible moment.

    Regardless of the reason, there's many things you can do if this happens. With UVXY as an example, you could short TVIX, or 2X VXX, VIXY, or buy 2X XIV, SVXY. You can also sell calls (UVXY, VXX), which will probably have very enticing premiums at the time you get your shares recalled.

    Of course nothing is foolproof or guaranteed, but these are some steps you can take to mitigate the losses from a recall.

    By the way , i use interactive brokers
    Jul 17, 2015. 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX: Investing (Short) In Volatility [View article]
    no that would not be a good strategy.

    VXX is constantly making new lows, so buying at a new low guarantees nothing, You have to wait for some sort of indicator showing you that volatility is set to increase, and this means that the VXX will already be somewhat elevated when this happens.

    XIV can go on making new highs for quite some time before it takes a big drop (check out period from Jun 14' to Feb 15').

    Best thing to do is short VXX (or UVXY) on spikes, with some sort of hedge (calls, spreads, ect.)
    Jul 16, 2015. 01:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX: Investing (Short) In Volatility [View article]
    This probably depends on how often one rebalances. If the short VXX position is rebalanced every week it is sure to beat a long XIV position.
    Jul 16, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe at session high as ECB boosts emergency lending to Greek banks [View news story]
    Everything is awesome!!!
    Jul 16, 2015. 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends In The Teenage Workforce [View article]
    I don't know,

    Instead of the education system i believe kids have a harder time with money since everything now is based on credit cards.

    Back in the old days there were gas stations every where and a kid had more freedom to take his bike and buy himself a kit kat or slurpy every once in a while. Remember arcade cabinets in every circle K?

    Now parents usually deal with buying kids everything they need, so they are not used to hauling around cash in their pockets, thus are slow to produce change or figure it out in their heads.

    Counting money was a very small part of the general education system, so no need to spout out party lines and place the blame on an overburdened system that works harder than most of wall street.
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China, Greece And Volatility [View article]
    Hence, shorting volatility on the first sign (which was a massive 35% spike) was a prudent thing to do, as long as the risk is managed in some way (spreads, long some, small position, ect.)
    Jul 15, 2015. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment