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jeezuz30

jeezuz30
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  • The Most Consistent Risk/Reward Speculation That I Have Ever Found [View article]
    SVXY should be paired with VXX since both are 1X leverage, UVXY is 2X.

    You are totally correct about the 2008 event, someone shorting either VXX or UVXY needs to have an exit valve for when things start to go wrong. Very difficult to take what make seem like a big loss, but not taking it will only results in bigger losses.
    Dec 21, 2014. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MINI-DRAW / CAPITULATION METHOD - Quick N Dirty [View instapost]
    Rock, I wouldn't consider this a typical divergence. As others have mentioned, with the big vix spikes comes a larger svxy drawdown.

    It takes a calm market for a long time (ex: market from april - august) to make new highs for svxy/xiv.

    However your observation is a good reason to instead short UVXY/VXX if possible instead of long XIV
    Dec 20, 2014. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MINI-DRAW / CAPITULATION METHOD - Quick N Dirty [View instapost]
    Yeah i'm thinking the market just enjoyed the words "considerable time" and "patient", removal of that would have probably resulted in a further draw.

    So now it's party on time, put my 2nd 2/3rds short vol in. Even with a monster up move in the markets, UVXY still managed to close higher than it opened, which leads me to believe there's still lots of nervous nellies out there. Should all subside by the beginning of next week though.
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MINI-DRAW / CAPITULATION METHOD - Quick N Dirty [View instapost]
    So with a 2% plus day were does this put the system in? Are you still thinking we bounce a couple of days then drop lower?

    I'm thinking more along the lines of sharp move higher, Santa Claus rally, then get real choppy come January.

    Also stating the obvious here but got my first short signal for uvxy, so going in 1/3 position
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Closing Out My Long Volatility Position And What's Next [View article]
    This article seems like it belongs in an instant blog instead of a full article. There's only explanation of the trades, without any reasoning of why the trade was made or any technical explanations of how he timed his trades.

    Agree with others that you've done a heck of a job with your timing, but if you're going to write an article at least have some science behind it, not just I've done this and it worked good so now I'm doing this.

    Probably sound harsher than I mean too but usually every trader that writes about volatility explains a little bit of the logic behind the trades, hope to get more info from the author
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BEGINNING OF YEAR RUNS (BOY) STRATEGY [View instapost]
    Seppo,

    I'm guilty of the same. Had my long signal (UVXY) on 12/1, immediately the next day we had a large drop on volatility and I decided to preempt the signals and go switch back to short.

    We'll there was some choppiness in the days that followed but the signals have never switched to short, they are actually solidly long.

    And wanting to avoid a small loss and thinking this would be quick now i'm sitting on big losses once again.

    The only positive i see at this point is that UVXY is solidly at overbought levels, and this is usually close to the time we see a solid change (and therefore hopefully a signal to short soon enough).
    Dec 13, 2014. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BEGINNING OF YEAR RUNS (BOY) STRATEGY [View instapost]
    "Sort of scary just to follow a model. I have done the numbers, I know them, I trust my work, but it is still difficult to just execute..."

    Those are exactly my thoughts a lot of the time Seppo. Even with the highest confidence models, it's still very difficult to watch 20% moves
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doing The Unthinkable: Going Long Volatility [View article]
    Disagree,

    There are wonderful times to go long VXX, you just have to have some sort of timing mechanism and a quick exit.

    An entry in the beginning of September and a quick exit at the 10% dip panic would have yielded wonderful results. Easier said than done though.
    Dec 7, 2014. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DRILLING DOWN ON DECEMBER PART I [View instapost]
    I saw that one too and was very intrigued. Definitely a gold mine of info in those strategies, i'm sure it'll take more than an afternoon to research them all
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DRILLING DOWN ON DECEMBER PART I [View instapost]
    exactly Mark, better to react once the market tells you too than anticipate and wait and keep on waiting

    by the time we get a 10% dip, what's it gonna matter if the market's gone up 20-30% first
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Volatility: A Great Long-Term Investment As Always [View article]
    Richard, check out this link:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    It shows several volatility strategies and they are all pretty successful, even with the high draw downs that can be expected you should still be able to come out far ahead as long as you manage your risk properly.
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Strategies - Separating Fact From Fiction [View instapost]
    Great summary of various volatility strategies out there. I agree you can achieve massive returns, with the main problem for most being the execution.

    With such sharp daily moves in these products it's difficult for the average investor to temporarily sit on a huge loss or have a massive gain vanish in a matter of hours.

    And this is probably the reason why these strategies will continue to be successful, most can't handle the ride.

    Thanks for the list of strategies, lot's of valuable research buried in these.
    Dec 5, 2014. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Investors Scared Witless [View article]
    With Rick Santelli on CNBC saying things like "coming from ZeroHedge, pretty smart market guys" it's not wonder most are mislead.

    This is hilarious, but also a good chance to take the opposing viewpoint and profit.

    I hope investors stay scared for another 20-30 years, that would be a great bull run.
    Dec 5, 2014. 12:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DRILLING DOWN ON DECEMBER PART I [View instapost]
    James,

    Unfortunately I went long at the end of the day on Monday, couldn't have picked a worse time lol.

    Took a shellacking on Tuesday before i finally stopped myself out, flipped back to short UVXY before waiting for my indicators to turn, which I got my first partial short signal yesterday and should have my next one tomorrow or today if UVXY drops quite a bit more.

    And that is the problem with momentum indicators, there's always a lag which means by the time you get the signal the move's already been made.
    Dec 4, 2014. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DRILLING DOWN ON DECEMBER PART I [View instapost]
    With UVXY at current levels I plan on going long at the close. Will also exit my XIV positions, had exited my UVXY shorts on Friday, glad I did after todays action.
    Dec 1, 2014. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
379 Comments
193 Likes