Seeking Alpha

jeezuz30

jeezuz30
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jeezuz30's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Trends In The Teenage Workforce [View article]
    I agree with your that both political parties are a joke, just pandering for votes and at the end only accomplishing what the highest paying lobbyists propose.

    More parent involvement helps, but at the end the school system probably needs some sort of reform, however not in a way to works only for the privileged while leaving the most vulnerable out to dry.
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UWTI And UGAZ: A Cautionary Tale Of Fortunes Won And Lost [View article]
    You should short those instead of buy them.
    Jul 17, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UWTI And UGAZ: A Cautionary Tale Of Fortunes Won And Lost [View article]
    anush,

    I haven't had to many problems with getting shares recalled, though i have heard horror stories. Seems like there has to be some sort of malicious intent on part of your broker to recall the shares at the worst possible moment.

    Regardless of the reason, there's many things you can do if this happens. With UVXY as an example, you could short TVIX, or 2X VXX, VIXY, or buy 2X XIV, SVXY. You can also sell calls (UVXY, VXX), which will probably have very enticing premiums at the time you get your shares recalled.

    Of course nothing is foolproof or guaranteed, but these are some steps you can take to mitigate the losses from a recall.

    By the way , i use interactive brokers
    Jul 17, 2015. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX: Investing (Short) In Volatility [View article]
    no that would not be a good strategy.

    VXX is constantly making new lows, so buying at a new low guarantees nothing, You have to wait for some sort of indicator showing you that volatility is set to increase, and this means that the VXX will already be somewhat elevated when this happens.

    XIV can go on making new highs for quite some time before it takes a big drop (check out period from Jun 14' to Feb 15').

    Best thing to do is short VXX (or UVXY) on spikes, with some sort of hedge (calls, spreads, ect.)
    Jul 16, 2015. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX: Investing (Short) In Volatility [View article]
    This probably depends on how often one rebalances. If the short VXX position is rebalanced every week it is sure to beat a long XIV position.
    Jul 16, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe at session high as ECB boosts emergency lending to Greek banks [View news story]
    Everything is awesome!!!
    Jul 16, 2015. 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends In The Teenage Workforce [View article]
    I don't know,

    Instead of the education system i believe kids have a harder time with money since everything now is based on credit cards.

    Back in the old days there were gas stations every where and a kid had more freedom to take his bike and buy himself a kit kat or slurpy every once in a while. Remember arcade cabinets in every circle K?

    Now parents usually deal with buying kids everything they need, so they are not used to hauling around cash in their pockets, thus are slow to produce change or figure it out in their heads.

    Counting money was a very small part of the general education system, so no need to spout out party lines and place the blame on an overburdened system that works harder than most of wall street.
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China, Greece And Volatility [View article]
    Hence, shorting volatility on the first sign (which was a massive 35% spike) was a prudent thing to do, as long as the risk is managed in some way (spreads, long some, small position, ect.)
    Jul 15, 2015. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UWTI And UGAZ: A Cautionary Tale Of Fortunes Won And Lost [View article]
    However, just because a security moves against you or is highly volatile is not a reason to abandon it.

    In contrary the highest opportunity comes with the most volatile stocks. You just have to average in/out and take daily gains or (losses). Hopefully those are kept to a minimum.
    Jul 14, 2015. 09:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UWTI And UGAZ: A Cautionary Tale Of Fortunes Won And Lost [View article]
    Jonathan,

    Thanks for sharing your experiences, which illustrate a lot of the typical frustrations that can be encountered trading these vehicles.

    I think your following quote holds the key on how to make steady profits from these etfs:

    "The point is that they are essentially designed to lose money in the long run. Don't believe me? Look at the long-term returns of each."

    The chart after your quote further exemplifies this.

    So instead of going long the following securities, why not go short and profit from their inefficiencies? Even if your totally wrong and short at the bottom of a new uptrend, you will eventually break even just from holding long enough (letting decay and contango and fees work for you).

    Add in small position sizing and doubling or tripling down, and you have better odds versus being long.

    By the way I had a similar June to yours, was going pretty good and feeling happy about my performance then bang the 29th of the month delivers a UVXY gain of 35%, taking down what would have been my best month by a few notches.
    Jul 14, 2015. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UWTI And UGAZ: A Cautionary Tale Of Fortunes Won And Lost [View article]
    Michael,

    That's a great comment and good description of typical dealings with these securities, and life in general trying to trade them. I sort of do something similar, except on the short side to take advantage of the decay.

    My staples include JNUG, JDST, UGAZ, DGAZ, UVXY, VXX, XIV, UCO, SCO.

    Will have to look and backtest YINN, YANG, RUSL, RUSS, as i've noticed they're highly volatile but wasn't sure if the short game would work with country specific securities.
    Jul 14, 2015. 09:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long The S&P 500 But Feeling A Little Uneasy? PUTX May Be Your Answer [View article]
    Looking at the CBOE site, PUT performance since the 2009 low to recent high is roughly 225%. This compares to SPX performance of roughly 319%.

    When the market dropped 57% from the 2007 high to the 2009 low, PUT dropped roughly 33%.

    So this seems to prove what others say, underperformance in up markets with over performance in down markets.

    Not sure though if one would prefer this sort of vehicle compared to just selling the puts themselves, unless in an IRA or similar account. Or better yet sell volatility, higher risk higher potential reward.
    Jul 11, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX: Investing (Short) In Volatility [View article]
    Not much premium in those, do you sell them in large amounts?

    If that's the case an event like last October or worse can make these calls surge multiple times in value, creating a hazard for your margin account.
    Jul 11, 2015. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feeling Unfulfilled By The Volatility Tease? [View article]
    bobcat,

    I hope so, would be a really nice opportunity to go all in on a short position (once the coast is clear of course).

    In the meantime, there's likely to be many daily opportunities with going both long/short with close monitoring.
    Jul 4, 2015. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feeling Unfulfilled By The Volatility Tease? [View article]
    Jacob, Nathan, whiff, I agree with your comments.

    That 34% jump on monday could have turned into another 50% or so gain on UVXY by thursday, meaning a loss on a short position.

    What I'm trying to get at is the rarity of that kind of move (30+ single day gain on vix only a couple dozen times in 20+ years), which in my opinion should be taken advantage of at least with a small position. If you go back and study most spikes on VXX it's usually not straight up, there's quite a bit of chop in the daily movements. And while you don't have to guess the exact direction, you can make a bit of money in between by just going against the main move (sell on up days, buy on down days).

    Sure you may have to sit on some losses if the whole situation gets out of control, but as long as you keep good control of the capital invested (or more like speculated) and are ready to double or triple down then you will eventually come out ahead.

    I enjoy Nathan's work and follow his volatility articles, I just believe that there's many more opportunities with the VIX than the few that are offered by waiting for backwardation to subside into contango to initiate a position.

    All that being said, people do have to have a mechanism to get them out if the situation turns into a summer 2010-11 (VXX triples) or Sep-Oct 2008 (UVXY could have gained 1000%+ in simulated back test). In these kinds of situations then you have to be mainly long volatility, which can be very difficult indeed.
    Jul 3, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
392 Comments
257 Likes