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faramarz

faramarz
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  • Apple: Uniquely Well Positioned For The Future Of TV [View article]
    A 4B revenue increase is not a big deal for Apple if you take it alone. But think about some othere 1 to 4B revenue incresaes coming from the kind of ApplePay, music streaming, etc. You can add up all these small revenues & you get a final bigger revenue increase. Not counting the additional iphones sold because of the success of the side services.
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Fighting The Battle That Can't Be Won [View article]
    To author. Your article can be shortened to few short sentences:
    - $ getting strong.
    - Analyst's expectations getting higher based on rumors.
    - Analysts are stupid because not taking into account the strength of $.
    - Apple's management is stupid and have not foreseen the $ strength.

    If you had better documented your article and had researched the banks forecast about the $'s expected strength, you would have realized that almost all banks were forecasting this trend of $ since almost 6 months and specially since december.
    I suppose the Lucca Maestrelli is smarter than you and most of us. Otherwise he wont be Apple's CFO. I have more confidence on LM than you and think that he has hedged well his currency income.
    Mar 11, 2015. 06:39 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HBO-Apple deal a year in the making; cable partners still a challenge [View news story]
    How did you conclude on that ? Your cristal ...
    Mar 10, 2015. 07:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dow Inclusion Good For All Parties [View article]
    Now, Apple has to split if it reaches 300 or there abouts as Visa was obliged to.
    Mar 9, 2015. 05:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple music service to undercut Spotify, new Apple TV planned [View news story]
    Wise man. Keep on.
    Mar 6, 2015. 05:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes On Cars (And Apple) [View article]
    @ MB. Your problem is that you think you know better than Apple itself what is good or bad for Apple and, you think that Apple's executives don't know what they are doing and do not understand and/or are not aware of the dangers that you forsee.
    Each of us here have an opinion about how Apple may enter the car business but, you are the only one thinking that Apple's army of engineers are not innovating and do not add any innovative feature to it's devices. You are the only one pretending that it is all coming from third parties.
    You were wrong on Apple during these last 3 years & you seem to keep on the same track.
    You are an Apple short because you seem to be so short viewed or may be totally blind not seeing the amount of innovation into each Apple device and how any other is just copying what Apple is doing.
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors Take Note - Samsung And Xiaomi Are On The Attack [View article]
    MB's articles are all the same. The same old story of market share & manipulated data to support his goal.
    Once you read one, you have read all.
    Feb 23, 2015. 11:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Defies The Law Of Large Numbers [View article]
    @ Sartre.
    My apologies to the writer. I just wanted to say that the writer ignored what the law of large numbers was and which phenomenon it treated.
    I have read this writer several times and he is very god in many aspects but he must give another name to the pseudo law of large numbers that he is stating.
    The writer of the link article hasn't understood the law of the large numbers either. He states: " the law states that a variable will revert to a mean over a large sample of results. In the case of the largest companies, it suggests that high earnings growth and a rapid rise in share price will slow as those companies grow ever larger."

    a) The law doesn't state that the variable will revert to a mean over a large number of results. BUT, THE LAW STATES THAT THERE WILL BE AN EQUAL NUMBER OF MEASURES OF EACH POSSIBLE RANDOM VALUE.
    For example, if you throw a dice a large number of times, you will have and an equal number of times (also large number) associated to the random values which are 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6.

    The extrapolation of such law to the growth of a company is not possible and doesn't mean anything because the growth is not a random value.
    Feb 17, 2015. 05:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Defies The Law Of Large Numbers [View article]
    This is the probable story of the misunderstanding: I think that some uneducated analyst or commentator had heard of the existence of such law. But he didn't know that this is a law of probability & the term "large number" applies to a large number of a single random event. He was too lazy to research and not enough math/probability oriented to understand the law. In fact he didn't understand what "large number" would mean. In his ignorance, He imagined this to be "a large number of repetition of the same growth that a company can achieve"! He just didn't understand that the Growth of a company is not "random". It is the result of a strategy/a vision/a guidance/a management/etc.. None of this factors is random. But he persisted as do often ignorants. Now many people at WSt (who are not mathematic nobel prize (if existed) winners) think that such law exist and applies to perpetual high growth of a company. They comment their law of large numbers & pretend to understand it. They even write articles. Some try to say that this law is applicable to Apple & some try to prove the contrary.
    IGNORANTS are all over. All pretending to know.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:16 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay gets foot into a big door: U.S. government transactions [View news story]
    @lords
    Where are your proofs that Institutions are reducing ?
    Apple stock has gained every day of the past week with above 1% exchange volume which is mush higher than the usual 0.6 to 0.8%.

    In a few years, a) The mobile transactions will explode & b) the Apple pay dent on the mobile payment volume will be much more than 1 trillion. There is almost no cost associated with the payment. So the growth margin is near 100% & the bottom line figure will be more than the 500 millions that you predict.
    Besides any incremental addition to the bottom line is welcome: Beside Apple Pay, think of Apple watch, Health & Home kit, Car play, Streaming Music & above all, the extra incentive that people will have to enter this ecosystem pushing them to buy more & more IOS & OS devices.

    Feb 15, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Numbers Get Serious [View article]
    From 0.71 to 126.71 you gained 126$ each share in 12 years. From now on you need the stick to move to 270.2 for the next 12 years in order to have the same gain (2% inflation per annum adjusted) $ wise. You don't need to win percentage wise unless you want to take some money to heaven
    Feb 13, 2015. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Numbers Get Serious [View article]
    @dana again. The growth rate is calculated with comparaison to a basis. The basis chages with the calculation period. One can compare Q to Q or anually. To take of the seasonal effect the annual growth rate is a better indicator.
    If your aim is to keep the growth rate of your investment unchanged, then the net $ value of your investment has to move parabolitically. Parabolic moves can never last.
    Apple is a stock to hold. That means that you will have a good return for your money with little or no risk at all in long term which is not a few Qs (as TC said) but over a few years or a decade.
    Personnaly, i started to by Apple in 2007. Since the, i have only added to my holding. Never sold. Last time I bought was in de├žember 2012. My average puchase price is 48 (split adjusted).
    Feb 13, 2015. 05:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Numbers Get Serious [View article]
    @dana. Are you earning percentages or real $s. A gain from 120 to 150 is exactly the same, $ wise, than the gain from 90 to 120. & this is the true math.
    The company doesn't have the same growth from 120 to 150 compared to the growth from 90 to 120 but it's gain is STRICTLY IDENTICAL.
    Feb 13, 2015. 04:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analysis: Free Versus Levered Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Well said
    Dec 23, 2014. 06:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analysis: Free Versus Levered Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Nicely said but nothing to back your thesis.
    A) Mobile cariers dont subsidize. They recover through the 2 years contract more than the difference between the full and the subsidized price. They also earn much more on those phone owners who don't upgrade but keep their contract. If the upgrade cycle increses to 4-5 years, then the contract price will come down to what T-mobile is charging to it's customers. So both mobile carriers and Apple (or other hi end smartphone companies) take profit of the so called subsidized system.

    B) there is nothing to back up the so called large cap companies theory. There is not any reference to prove anything. The argument of it's defender is that the growth percentage is not sustainable. But who cares about the growth percentage. The absolute value of growth most important. Besides, this theory doesn't take into account the growth through aquisations and through new hardware & services.

    C) customers trend naturally change but clever companies can adapt themselves to this change and above all, create those changes through their new & innovative products.

    D) how can one claim tha the iwatch will be a nich market before even this product is out. What are your figures proving this statement. There is certainly no evidence the success of the iwatch but, given the Apple fan army, the bet is more in iwatch's success side.
    Dec 23, 2014. 06:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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