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faramarz

faramarz
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  • Apple Mostly Just An Overvalued Hardware Stock; New Catalysts Needed [View article]
    @ author. Some of the problems you pointed out can be of some truth. But claiming Apple to be just a hardware company, makes a fool of you.
    HP/Samsung, etc. are hardware companies. They have no software of their own & can never be independent. Apple sells hardware with it's own software.
    Feb 5 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Apple And Bought Yahoo [View article]
    @ author. You seem to reject the possibility of any type of revenue stagnation for Yahoo business model. Competition is also very strong & their cash caw (advertisers) has also a limit. Yahoo started from a low point (market share). So relative increase might look huge. Yahoo's revenue is correlated to it's market share. Going from 1% to 2% is 100% increase. Apple's net revenue is not correlated to it's market share. Apple has more than 70% of the profit. increasing 70% to 72% is less than 3% relative but still is the double of Yahoo's overall increase.
    Yahoo figures are Non GAAP & cannot be compared to Apple results.
    Still, Yahoo is a very good investment but in a complete different sector. One investment has not necessarily replace the other.
    Your investment point in apple was high but was still acceptable. Your investing time frame was not 100% correct. But, this can be said only after you are aware of the future. Your son's account is not for trading but investing.
    Feb 3 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Apple And Bought Yahoo [View article]
    Deferred revenue has increased because of free software update established as of sept. 2013. As of sept. 2014 the deferred revenue out will be +/- the same compared to deferred revenue in which is the result of the expiration of the one year deferred revenue deadline.
    Feb 3 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Apple's Stock Worth? [View article]
    @MB. IOS is driving the content sales. The total android market share drives less content sales than the +/-15% IOS market share. More than 80% of android devices does not even buy a single item (content). Your assumption is right but your conclusion is biaised.
    Jan 31 05:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moore's Law, Not Apple, Is Driving The Mobile Market [View article]
    @ MB. Apple is making money. If they enter the middle or low price segment they have to:
    a) manufacture cheep devices bringing down the cost in order to continue to make money or,
    b) manufacture hi quality medium priced devices & make little to no profit & cannibalize the flagship device. They have to sell a lot of these medium priced devices in order to equalize the profit they are having from a flagship device.

    With the actual 5C pricing, the flagship 5S is protected & there is no cannibalization. The ASP during the Q114 demonstrated this perfectly. Apple had +/- the same gross/net revenue $ from a much lower sales volume & absent carriers policy change the sales volume would have been higher.

    Apple's policy is very smart: pricing the 5C in a way that 5S sells more & those who want a colorful device will get one if they afford the price. 5C is there to push the 5S sales up.

    The entry device is the 4S. When the 6 is out i believe that Apple will not discontinue the 4S the 5C becoming free with contract or @449 or 399 without contract.

    This author & MB want to bring apple to the level of Samsung. High quality brands don't enter the cheep business. BMW or Mercedes don't have cheep cars. Rolex do not make cheep watches, etc.. Samsung is ti be compared to Toyota making decent handsets trying to be present in all sectors of the market with a +/- high quality but cheep plastic wrapped galaxy series handset like the Lexus for Toyota.

    Apple shall continue the way they do trying to innovate & let the stock find it's real value. with time
    Jan 29 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Getting Past The Dip [View article]
    Lets see how the market reacts to FB & Google earnings.
    The Market is punishing apple for not having sold the iphones that analysts expected apple to sell. But do not consider the huge ASP (637$) that apple got for each iphone sold. Analysts expected 600$. Same goes with the ipad or macs sold.
    Jan 28 06:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doubling Down On Apple [View article]
    Over 51m Iphones sold higher than Q1 13
    Over 26M ipads sold higher than last year's same Q
    4.8M PCs sold again higher than last years same Q figure
    Exception to Ipods' figures all other items sales were better than last years.

    Apple delivered revenu near the top end of the guidance, beating their own gross margin foresast.

    But apple failed to sell as much iphones as analysts expected. Nobody asks why those analysts expected more than 56M iphone sales. On what they are more reliable than apple. This is ridiculous.

    The guidance for Q2 14 is lower than what analysts expected. So what. Analysts should learn how to guess or shall buy a crystal ball.

    To me apple did well & shall continue their way. WS will finish by admitting that this is great co making money not as many others just promissing future earnings which never realise.
    Jan 28 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Don't Panic, This Is An Opportunity [View article]
    @ Michael Blair & Ivsroars2010
    Apple death is announced many times since 1986.
    I cannot say that a company is dead when it reports almost continuously higher revenue & EPS.
    Real traders make money out of Apple's fluctuation.

    Real (long term) investors, those who are long for longtime & keep their holding regardless of ups & downs, have made money & will continue to make money by holding Apple.

    But short term investors, those who buy &/or sell following the news or some quarterly results, etc. may make or lose money depending if they are lucky or not. This kind of investors are a hybrid kind between traders & real long term investors & their decision is mostly based on which side the coin falls. This time the coin fell on the wrong/right side for them depending if they were long or short.

    MB or the kind are traders on relatively long periods by options/puts. They are not real stock holders.

    As far as i am concerned, i first bought apple in 2003 & since then i have just added to my holding. The highest i bought (late 2012), apple traded at 509. I added some at 440, 398 & finally at 399 last june. My average price is in the about 280. Never sold because never had the right crystal ball. between yesterday & today my apple holding is going to loose 10% of it's value but this is if i just an instant value of this holding. My real gain or loss will be determined when i decide to sell. I will take the sales decision if fundamentals start to show real weakness. Fluctuations around positive results & solid fundamentals are not enough reason for trigging such decision.
    Jan 28 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Will Beat Street Estimates, A Buy Is Justified [View article]
    MB quoted WSJ but purposedly forgot to mention that the photo had been taken from an angle that hided the real crowd. Another photo taken by the same journalist & published at the same time shows at least 50 persons around TC & CM chairman including those 12 persons showed in the WSJ photos. MB knew this because he comented the article that mentioned this biais way of showing things.
    WSJ purposedly cheated & MB knowing this quoted WSJ because this suited his article. So MB is also a cheater.
    Jan 27 05:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's China Mobile Launch Was A Flop [View article]
    Michael. This photo was taken from an angle which hided the real crowd. You know this. You even posted a coment when this was revealed in a SA article.
    Jan 23 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Cirrus Logic rally after iPhone/iPad supplier reports strong sales [View news story]
    NWCats404. I thimk that 500k was the total production & not related to a particular producer but i may be wrong on that.
    Jan 14 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Cirrus Logic rally after iPhone/iPad supplier reports strong sales [View news story]
    IMHO apple will just report within the original guidance. I think that Apple will not make a rule of Guidance adjustments. Gross margin will be a better than guided. 1/2m 5s during 60 days & 350k during 30 days lead to 40.5m 5s to be added to +/- 12m 5c & 4m 4s = 56.5m iphones. ASP of 600 = 33.9b. Iphone accounts for +/- 58% of apple's income = 57.5b
    Jan 13 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2 Bits On 64-Bits And Apple's Strong Q1 Outlook [View article]
    Michael. from techie posts i am convinced that your analyze on A7's performance is untrue.
    But i have to admit that your calculation of Apple's Q1 revenue estimation is +/- correct. You are taking the low end of your forecast, i believe Apple will deliver towards the high end due to a better ASP. We will see on jan 27
    Jan 13 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    The stock price is declining because the market impression is tha t apple will just deliver within the forecast. The market expected apple to give a new guidance as they did in september. I tend to agree with the market. I beleive that apple will deliver a decent q1 within the original guidance. May be slightly above the high end but nothing spectacular. I am long apple & do think that 2014 will be the star of a new good era. I beleive that achieving within the guidance is allready a very good result but i doubt that mr market thinks the same..
    I foresee 620 to 670 for fy2014.
    I started to buy apple from 50 & haved never sold. My average price is 345. I'll sell when apple starts to make cheep products for the sake of market share.
    Jan 8 06:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Panic Time Already? [View article]
    @MB. xiaomi's sales was 10,000 & not 100,000 in the first 10 minutes.
    Iphone sales on the launch we was 31250 for the first 10 minutes if you consider 24 selling hours/day. If you consider only 12 selling hours/day, the iphone sales become 62500 on the first 10 minutes. This is a number obtained from the 9,000,000 iphones sold over the launch we. But if we consider the fact that the first 10 minutes the sales speed is much faster than the figure obtained from the total sales of the launch we, then that number become at least double : about 125,000 unites on the first 10 minutes.

    So Michael, you needed to add a zero to the announced figure to make it impressive number.
    Jan 7 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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