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faramarz

faramarz
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  • Apple: Time To Get Optimistic Again [View article]
    @SAR2401. You must be a successful investor. You seem to know when to buy & when to sell. You seem to have this cristal ball that we all dream of.
    While not owning this so desired future telling device (may be Apple will invent this one day) we humble investors without having your trader's abilities try to buy a company with solid fundamentals & background, well managed, rewarding with steady income while innovator with some (& perhaps much more) growth potential.

    WS sharks make money with traders like you who think to know when things happen. I dont think that you would be debating on SA if you were such a successful trader as you seem to claim by giving lessons to long term investors that you call Buy & Holders.

    I, a humble buy & holders, have bought Apple @ $8, 20, 50, 70, 100, 90, 200, 300, 400 on the way up & @ $420 & 390 on the way down. I confess I never sold because I always believed on this company. To date, my investment has grown more than 10 times in about 10 years. I could have made more money selling high & buying low. But, on the way up, if i had sold @ 200, 300, 400, 500, etc would I have still the opportunity to buy @ 150, 250, 350, 450 ? I couldn't find a cristal ball telling me the future.
    I'll sell one day. But then, i will own any stock & put my assets on a ore secure investment.
    May 16 06:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time To Get Optimistic Again [View article]
    Where re Samsumg's, BBry's, Nokia's etc.. great products. They are all updated version of Apple's older versions with some +/- interesting updates tat really doesn't matter much.
    Apple offers a whole, others offer just a part of a whole.

    I agree that Apple will have a huge problem if Apple doesn't come with a new product. But i dont think that they need to do this in such a hurry. They have to bring a new product as perfect as Iphone, Ipad, etc..

    To date none of the others have a launched a new product. They are all trying to make the product that Apple has launched. Some are successful some aren't. But, they are all on one side & Apple at the other.
    IOS is losing market share if you take the overall market size. But IOS is gaining market share if you take the high end users : those who really use their OS.
    About 80% of Android old versions is never upgraded & have become obsolete.
    It is nor possible to upgrade the Android OS version on more than 50% of Android smarthphones or tablets.
    May 16 05:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. [View news story]
    Apple dived on Hon Hai news.
    May 14 04:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Tepper: Turning to individual ideas, he says Citigroup (C) has become one of his biggest positions. On Apple (AAPL): If the company doesn't have something "revolutionary" coming, it better do something "evolutionary" - bigger screen, cheap iPhone. If we don't see anything by September, then it's "Houston we got a problem," and Tepper hopes he's quicker on the sell button than everybody else. [View news story]
    Tepper is a blind analyst thinking short term. Better he sell immediately.
    May 14 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Apple's 'Rate Of Return' For The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    What if the future dips were higher than the present stock price ?
    Shall we take the train while it is in the station instead of running after it till the next station ?
    Who can predict the behavior of this particular stock or any other stock ?
    IMHO, if one thinks that the stock price is low enough to get in he must do so. waiting for future dips might not be a good solution if those dips might be higher than the present price. If you are a long term investor, a few percent lower or higher wouldn't change too much to the foreseen profit over the next 3 to 5 years.
    May 13 05:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Share Trends Make Apple Look Vulnerable [View article]
    I loved your final point. Very true
    May 6 04:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Share Trends Make Apple Look Vulnerable [View article]
    @Michael Blair. Your article compares market shares which are not comparable. Android market share is built mostly in low end smartphones. Those smartphones are mostly used as future phones. unfortunately there is no data available on real penetration of Android in the real smartphone market. IOS share must be wildly above 50% if one compared comparable sectors.
    Your comment about BB in reply to harryjack's pertinent post shows how superficial is your research and thoughts. BB, a single product co, is not comparable to Apple. BB at 130 (it's pick) probably could not collect 17B in the market with an offering of 50B. Apple at 450 (it's low : 250 lower than it's pick of 700) could do that. This means how much the real market (where they lend you money) trusts on Apple's future. They have lend money at 10 & 30 years to Apple. That shows how much the real market believes on Apple's long term profitability.
    Usually, when an article is comparing not comparable items, the author is trying to manipulate. Your article is just worthless.
    May 6 03:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +3.2%) is reportedly offering $17B in its bond sale, making it the largest U.S. corporate debt deal ever. Bloomberg reports $5.5B in 10-year debt will be sold at just a 75bps premium to 10-year Treasury yields (currently at 1.68%). (previous: I, II) Update (3:47): The deal is official. Reuters: "The company is offering $1 billion of three-year floating-rate notes, $1.5 billion of three-year fixed-rate notes, $2 billion of five-year floating-rate notes, $4 billion of five-year fixed-rate notes, $5.5 billion of 10-year fixed-rate notes and $3 billion of 30-year fixed-rate notes." [View news story]
    Apple can do lot better with their foreign cash & I think that Apple's next step will be to invest in it's own share with it's offshore money & keep those shares on the balance sheet.
    Imagine Apple uses 60 billions of it's offshore money to buy 120 million shares at average price of 500. Those shares will not be entitled to dividend.
    Apple will save 120m * 12.2 = 1464m each year & add 1,56 to it's EPS based on 940m diluted shares count.
    The 12.2 yearly dividend represents 2.44% (on ASP of 500) & is much better than what the market offers to Apple. Besides, the outstanding shares in the market will be only 840m. This will push the price high & Apple's investments in it's own stock will appreciate considerably.
    Apple's actual offshore money makes less than 2%. This is almost dead money. Investing in it's own shares instead of other equities is much more interesting.
    Apr 30 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Early chatter on the Apple (AAPL) debt offering has 3-year paper priced around 35 basis points over comparable-maturity Treasurys and 10-years priced 90-95 bps above (Microsoft priced at +70). The 3-year Treasury currently yields 0.31%. Borrowing at 0.66%, Apple can buy back shares yielding nearly 3% (with free cash flow yield far higher than that). [View news story]
    @ bobbobwhite: Do u think that every person for Apple is now switched to the share buyback program ? Ridiculous.
    Apr 30 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demystifying The Microsoft/Apple Comparison Argument [View article]
    @ dints70128 : U are 100% right. One needs to do a more in depth comparison. IMHO, Apple's actual management is following what Steve Jobs would have done but collectively. TC has very well distributed the roles & the final outcome will continue to be INNOVATION & NEW PRODUCTS. Apple doesn't have to follow Samsung but need a strong competitor such as Samsung to keep it awake & to push it to what they can do best "Innovation".

    I also fully agree that Apple today is not comparable to MSFT. George is giving almost all reasons why they are not comparable. But, he is not mentioning a very important reason: MSFT did not innovate after 1999 while Apple's history is full of innovations & the last one, IPAD, was introduces only 3 years back &, most probably, some innovative products are in the pipe line.
    Apr 29 07:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Apple (AAPL) commentary: 1) Horace Dediu estimates the iPhone and iPad's component costs respectively rose 29% and 65% Y/Y in FQ2, well above rev. growth of 3% and 40%. This, along with a mix shift towards iPads, is mostly responsible for Apple's gross margin drop (rather than price pressure). 2) Tero Kuittinen sees similarities between 2013 Apple and 2007 Nokia. "The strongest parallel is in the weird way both companies started fighting the consumer preference for larger displays … and then dug in as margins began eroding rapidly." Tim Cook may have just hinted a bigger iPhone will eventually arrive. But how long will it take? (yesterday[View news story]
    @ Ashraf: the only arrogant person here is you. You often imply that your opinion is the only one that is true & should count. You often tend to erase Apple's huge succes story & customers' love & zoom on others relative successes.
    Apple has just one competitor capable of delivering as good products as Apple's & this is Samsung. The next few years will show which one will come first but, IMHO both of them will be winners of this competition. Most of the statistics are already showing this trend.
    I also think that this competition will be a great incentive for innovation for both compagnies.

    By the way, Apple's stock price decline in the past 6 month is not representing declining sales but declining margins & some fear & panic originated by people like you. Apple at 700 (only 16*EPS) was exaggerated but far less than Apple at 420 (9.5*EPS).
    When the dust will settle & the fear & panic disappear, Apple's stock price will return to a normal & realistic multiple (+/-13 to 15) & during this time, conservative investors (I'am not talking about traders) will also collect the +/- 2% per annum dividend.
    Apr 28 08:02 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Einhorn likes Apple's (AAPL) feisty share buyback : "We applaud Apple's decision to borrow money and return excess capital to shareholders, an idea that was off the table only months ago. This positive development represents a more shareholder friendly capital allocation policy and demonstrates the conviction of Apple's management and board in the Company's future." [View news story]
    Apple's problem is not the level of earning now but the level of Q1 & Q2 2012 (& +/- also Q3 2012) Margins & subsequently EPS relative to Revenue which were exceptional & can never be beaten.
    We will see a return to a moderate Growth (+/- 10%) both on Revenue & EPS with Q4 2013 or Q1 2014 & thereafter. +/- 10% for a large cap is a fantastic achievement.
    But if Apple comes with a new disruptive product, then the growth on Revenue & EPS could be much higher (+/- 20%).
    The ratio of Software to Hardware related Revenue is very important.
    Apr 24 04:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Einhorn likes Apple's (AAPL) feisty share buyback : "We applaud Apple's decision to borrow money and return excess capital to shareholders, an idea that was off the table only months ago. This positive development represents a more shareholder friendly capital allocation policy and demonstrates the conviction of Apple's management and board in the Company's future." [View news story]
    @ Herr Hansa.
    I hope u did it & what do u suggest now: Buy, hold or sell ?
    Apple's problem is not their level of earning now. Apple's problem is the level of Q1 & Q2 2012 (& +/- also Q3 2012) Margins & subsequently EPS relative to Revenue which were exceptional & can never be beaten.
    We will see a return to a moderate Growth (+/- 10%) both on Revenue & EPS with Q4 2013 or Q1 2014 & thereafter. +/- 10% for a large cap is a fantastic achievement.
    But if Apple comes with a new disruptive product, then the growth on Revenue & EPS could be much higher (+/- 20%).
    The ratio of Software to Hardware related Revenue is very important.
    Apr 24 04:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Save Its Shareholders - But Will It? [View article]
    Great link. Do you think that Ashraf will take some time to watch your link from Ted.Ex. He is 100% the kind of person reasoning from outer circle to inner one.
    Apr 8 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Save Its Shareholders - But Will It? [View article]
    I didn't say that you manipulate the stock price. I sais that you like to manipulate people.

    By the way, if you had bought Apple from 100 to 420 with an average of 190 as I did, you would have made a real good profit even if you had missed to sell at 705.

    You just dream of what you have not done & never had the courage to do something.
    Apr 8 04:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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