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faramarz

faramarz
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  • Apple Is In Deep Trouble: A Reformed Bull Speaks Out [View article]
    @ Ashraf. a few month ago, you were telling us tat Apple will be in the low 300s very soon.
    @Autor. You must be blind not seeing the innovations in IP5S & Ipad Air. Innovation is not just a technology future in a device. Being able to reduce the weight by 28% & the thickness by 25% & still have everything you need in the device or, making a nice design is as much innovative as any new technology. It depends of what you are expecting from an Ipad or Iphone.
    But Apple is not only innovating on design.
    The A7 or M7 or the touch ID are also innovative & revolutionary moves not evolutionary ones. Even Ashraf hadn't foreseen such moves. But after Apple launched them, every one, even Ashraf, knew of them even Ashraf.
    By the way, others (Samsung, Google, Nokia, HTC one, etc.. may catch up some times next year. If they can catch up
    Oct 24 08:13 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple's Pricing Strategies Drive Volume Or Water Down The Brand? Maybe Both! [View article]
    @ Michael. Your article is, as usual, full of little errors, like the pricing policies of careers). For examples, you are mixing the price of 16, 32 & 64 GB of different brands to back your statement.

    You also asses that Apple failed with the 5C. But, sales figures show that 5S & 5C are 1st & 2nd ahead of S4, S3 and all others.

    You argue about some discounts being given by retailers as being the sign that 5C is not selling well (despite the above ranking). To many people Those little discounts ($50 on a 549 or 649 worth item) is just an attempt by those retailers to bring the crowd in their stores. Your interpretation is 100% wrong & you know it because you are intelligent enough for not understanding this issue but, you are at the same time not honest enough for arguing the contrary.
    If Apple had discounted 5C at its' stores, i would take it as a sign of willing to push the sales of a not good selling product.

    I hope you made good money during the last year's sell off period but i doubt you make ant money shorting Apple now that Apple has shown that they are the true leaders of the smartphone market by putting the futures that matter for the end users.

    Oct 13 08:37 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Tim Cook Does Not Care About The 'Bloody ROI', Does He Care About The 'Bloody Stock Price'? [View article]
    TC's answer was to those stupid questions was the best. The fellow who asked those question should be very stupid to think that Apple's environmental expenses do have some significant effect on ROI. Apple's bottom line is hardly affected by such expenses.
    Mar 3 06:25 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Believe The Hype: Apple's Growth Story Is Not Over [View article]
    you just repeat what CNBC is hammering since 4 month.
    - a full range of desktop which runs without extra cost
    - a full range of laptop same as above
    - a full range of IPod
    - I phone
    - Ipad full size & mini
    - Other accessories
    - software in perfect harmony in the best ecosystem
    - Itune
    - Apps
    - etc.

    Isn't this diversified ?

    Where Google's earning is coming from : just clicks
    Jan 25 02:08 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone Fingerprint Reader Means Government Business [View article]
    @pbanados. Very nicely said. You are so right about those self declared "experts" (such as Michael) who think they are right & Apple with their army of engineers & marketers is wrong.
    Michael is so negative on Apple that he even comments on technologies that he doesn't understand.
    Sep 2 05:42 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. [View news story]
    U r right.
    Why should we listen to an analyst guesses/conclusions based on some rumors he may have heard or some infos he may have had which could be partially true or totally false ? No one knows.
    Why do we think that these analysts have the clue & know what they are talking about ?
    Why dont we think that these analysts have some interest in orienting their comments ?
    After all, aren't they concerned by stock's price one way or another ?
    Jan 4 03:24 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    None of your long term arguments about apple's market share decline can justify your short term bearish move.
    The 2 competitors That you are mentioning are losing money with their products. Apple is in the upper side of the 400+ usd market. Apple enjoys the premium brand status & is not competing in this same field as samsung, etc..
    Dec 30 06:39 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Not Out Of The Woods Yet [View article]
    @ Ashraf Eassa. I remember many of your articles claiming that you will start a long position in Apple when in mid or low 300's. At that time i told you that you should jump on the leaving train & don't wait the next bottom. Apple was trading @ 425. it then bottomed at 395 & i suppose that you waited the mid or low 300's & you are still waiting.
    Again, i recommend you to jump on the train & enjoy the upcoming raise.
    Personally I'm in since 2003. Bought from 7 to 350 each time i could. Never sold. Instead, i bought some more @ 500, 440 & 425.
    I could have made good money selling @ 700 & re buying @ 400 but how could i know ?
    One thing is sure, with a company like Apple you will certainly win good money if you have enough patience.
    Dec 2 06:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Several Reasons To Respect Apple's Tim Cook [View article]
    @ vperez. You got almost everything wrong.
    1) The wrong person hired for the retail stores management was in fact hired with he approval of SJ himself.
    2) The fiasco of the map was responsibility of another person (SF). TC fired him for this reason.
    3) The deal with China Mobile has to be approved by the 2 sides of the table. TC alone cannot ink such a deal unless he gives away everything that China mobile would like to get out of this deal. TC is working for Apple & has to consider Apple's interest. Nokia got the deal with China Mobile conceding everything to them. Apple is not Nokia & has profitability in mind.
    4) Suing copycats in courts is a must. Otherwise there is no intellectual property protection. As far as i know Apple has proven the copycat nature of Samsung.
    5) For the last decade Apple has innovated & others have copied. I don't see any change to this trend. For the last 2 years, Apple has improved existing futures on it's devices with little real innovation & no one else has come with an innovative future. In fact they have had nothing to copy & are all waiting to see "what next with Apple". Soon they will all have something to copy again. Be sure of this.
    6) If SJ was there the dividend & the stock buy back would not even be there. So the credit has to be given to TC even if, to you, he was late. But to many observers, paying a dividend less than 9 month after SJ's reign was a real challenge.
    7) The big downfall of the stock was a natural but excessive reaction to an exponential increase due to analysts' irrational forecasts based on an exceptional 6 months period (1st & 2nd Q12). 1st Q12 was a 14 weeks Q with the launch of 4S which had low manufacturing cost & 2nd Q12 which was the china launch of Iphone. The 3rd & 4th Q 12 were also influenced by the China launch & 4S's low manufacturing cost. If one compares comparable, one can easily recognize that 1st & 2nd Q12 were 2 singularities. In fact the trend is continuing the +/- same path if one corrects the singularity effect.

    Hope this will open your eyes..
    Sep 5 05:44 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Samsung Problem Can't Be Solved [View article]
    @Ashraf. U are not consistant al all. U present the same arguments to predict the Apple death & the resurgence of it's competitors.
    If the smartphone market is going to be a commoditiy market, compagnies like Bbry, Nokia, etc. & even Samsung will suffer much more than Apple.
    U say that Apple doesn't innovate but U present samsung & others slight changes as an innovation.
    U just forget one thing, Apple is a luxury brand with a huge ecosystem & as such, Samsung & others are trying to copycat it & look like Apple. Many car makers have tried to copycat BMW but a BMW buyer will never buy those.
    One more thing, I think that you know well all above but you are not honest with your statements about Apple & most probably you are paid by some people interested in writers like you to back their plans.

    The proliferation of writers like you, in a very short time, completely disregarding the facts & assuming others will succeed where Apple will precisely fail is really amazing.

    By the way, why di u think people shall but Bbry while staying away of Apple ?
    Mar 17 11:15 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secret Code To The Apple Cash Vault [View article]
    Apple can-shall/should have buy/bought at least 100M shares with the money sitting oversears when the stock eas between 400 & 500. Apple is holding marketable securities & equities on their balance sheet with the money sitting offshore. Some of this could have been replaced by Apple's own stock. There is no laws forbidding this. Instead of having X-Y-Z on the balance sheet they would have Apple's own shares. Apple would obviously pay a repatriation & capital increase taxe whenever they decide to bring those shares back home. But in the mid time, Apple would save the dividende on those share. This alone would be a better use of money than the thresury bonds. WS would consider those shares as being effectively written off & would consider 2 type of EPS: one accounting those shares & one without. Apple could also vest all oversees employees option from thoses shares.
    I have talked of this to several business lawyers in US & they don't see anything against the current US laws on the subject.
    Feb 11 05:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Could Be One Of The Worst Investments You Could Make Right Now [View article]
    @ BA capital. Show me where i can have an equivalent of IP5 for 1/2 the cost. HTC one or SG4 are at the same price level despite the Android OS full of malware & the much weaker ecosystem.

    FYI. In recent years only Apple has innovated & to date no one has come with something truly innovative that any Idevice doesn't have or can envy.

    B4 talking/writing nonsense cliché, one must do some home work.
    Aug 28 10:22 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $700: Don't Get Burned Again [View article]
    Ashraf is anti Apple & thinks that an eventual technically superior product is better. He has no idea about the value of UI & friendly & secure ecosystem.
    When Apple traded at 400 he advised to sell. He mentioned several time that he would but in mid 300. He is still waiting this to happen.
    To me, Ashraf is frustrated that he never gets it right with Apple. He is long Intel & MS & wrote many articles favorable to these 2 companies.
    He is a poor investor & thinks that unnecessary gadgets are innovations.
    Aug 19 06:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Apple (AAPL) commentary: 1) Horace Dediu estimates the iPhone and iPad's component costs respectively rose 29% and 65% Y/Y in FQ2, well above rev. growth of 3% and 40%. This, along with a mix shift towards iPads, is mostly responsible for Apple's gross margin drop (rather than price pressure). 2) Tero Kuittinen sees similarities between 2013 Apple and 2007 Nokia. "The strongest parallel is in the weird way both companies started fighting the consumer preference for larger displays … and then dug in as margins began eroding rapidly." Tim Cook may have just hinted a bigger iPhone will eventually arrive. But how long will it take? (yesterday[View news story]
    @ Ashraf: the only arrogant person here is you. You often imply that your opinion is the only one that is true & should count. You often tend to erase Apple's huge succes story & customers' love & zoom on others relative successes.
    Apple has just one competitor capable of delivering as good products as Apple's & this is Samsung. The next few years will show which one will come first but, IMHO both of them will be winners of this competition. Most of the statistics are already showing this trend.
    I also think that this competition will be a great incentive for innovation for both compagnies.

    By the way, Apple's stock price decline in the past 6 month is not representing declining sales but declining margins & some fear & panic originated by people like you. Apple at 700 (only 16*EPS) was exaggerated but far less than Apple at 420 (9.5*EPS).
    When the dust will settle & the fear & panic disappear, Apple's stock price will return to a normal & realistic multiple (+/-13 to 15) & during this time, conservative investors (I'am not talking about traders) will also collect the +/- 2% per annum dividend.
    Apr 28 08:02 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    No one can say where the bottom is but IMHO we are in that range.
    Jan 26 06:30 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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