Seeking Alpha

faramarz

faramarz
Send Message
View faramarz's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Apple Investors Take Note - Samsung And Xiaomi Are On The Attack [View article]
    MB's articles are all the same. The same old story of market share & manipulated data to support his goal.
    Once you read one, you have read all.
    Feb 23, 2015. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Defies The Law Of Large Numbers [View article]
    @ Sartre.
    My apologies to the writer. I just wanted to say that the writer ignored what the law of large numbers was and which phenomenon it treated.
    I have read this writer several times and he is very god in many aspects but he must give another name to the pseudo law of large numbers that he is stating.
    The writer of the link article hasn't understood the law of the large numbers either. He states: " the law states that a variable will revert to a mean over a large sample of results. In the case of the largest companies, it suggests that high earnings growth and a rapid rise in share price will slow as those companies grow ever larger."

    a) The law doesn't state that the variable will revert to a mean over a large number of results. BUT, THE LAW STATES THAT THERE WILL BE AN EQUAL NUMBER OF MEASURES OF EACH POSSIBLE RANDOM VALUE.
    For example, if you throw a dice a large number of times, you will have and an equal number of times (also large number) associated to the random values which are 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6.

    The extrapolation of such law to the growth of a company is not possible and doesn't mean anything because the growth is not a random value.
    Feb 17, 2015. 05:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Defies The Law Of Large Numbers [View article]
    This is the probable story of the misunderstanding: I think that some uneducated analyst or commentator had heard of the existence of such law. But he didn't know that this is a law of probability & the term "large number" applies to a large number of a single random event. He was too lazy to research and not enough math/probability oriented to understand the law. In fact he didn't understand what "large number" would mean. In his ignorance, He imagined this to be "a large number of repetition of the same growth that a company can achieve"! He just didn't understand that the Growth of a company is not "random". It is the result of a strategy/a vision/a guidance/a management/etc.. None of this factors is random. But he persisted as do often ignorants. Now many people at WSt (who are not mathematic nobel prize (if existed) winners) think that such law exist and applies to perpetual high growth of a company. They comment their law of large numbers & pretend to understand it. They even write articles. Some try to say that this law is applicable to Apple & some try to prove the contrary.
    IGNORANTS are all over. All pretending to know.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:16 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Numbers Get Serious [View article]
    From 0.71 to 126.71 you gained 126$ each share in 12 years. From now on you need the stick to move to 270.2 for the next 12 years in order to have the same gain (2% inflation per annum adjusted) $ wise. You don't need to win percentage wise unless you want to take some money to heaven
    Feb 13, 2015. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Numbers Get Serious [View article]
    @dana again. The growth rate is calculated with comparaison to a basis. The basis chages with the calculation period. One can compare Q to Q or anually. To take of the seasonal effect the annual growth rate is a better indicator.
    If your aim is to keep the growth rate of your investment unchanged, then the net $ value of your investment has to move parabolitically. Parabolic moves can never last.
    Apple is a stock to hold. That means that you will have a good return for your money with little or no risk at all in long term which is not a few Qs (as TC said) but over a few years or a decade.
    Personnaly, i started to by Apple in 2007. Since the, i have only added to my holding. Never sold. Last time I bought was in de├žember 2012. My average puchase price is 48 (split adjusted).
    Feb 13, 2015. 05:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Numbers Get Serious [View article]
    @dana. Are you earning percentages or real $s. A gain from 120 to 150 is exactly the same, $ wise, than the gain from 90 to 120. & this is the true math.
    The company doesn't have the same growth from 120 to 150 compared to the growth from 90 to 120 but it's gain is STRICTLY IDENTICAL.
    Feb 13, 2015. 04:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analysis: Free Versus Levered Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Well said
    Dec 23, 2014. 06:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analysis: Free Versus Levered Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Nicely said but nothing to back your thesis.
    A) Mobile cariers dont subsidize. They recover through the 2 years contract more than the difference between the full and the subsidized price. They also earn much more on those phone owners who don't upgrade but keep their contract. If the upgrade cycle increses to 4-5 years, then the contract price will come down to what T-mobile is charging to it's customers. So both mobile carriers and Apple (or other hi end smartphone companies) take profit of the so called subsidized system.

    B) there is nothing to back up the so called large cap companies theory. There is not any reference to prove anything. The argument of it's defender is that the growth percentage is not sustainable. But who cares about the growth percentage. The absolute value of growth most important. Besides, this theory doesn't take into account the growth through aquisations and through new hardware & services.

    C) customers trend naturally change but clever companies can adapt themselves to this change and above all, create those changes through their new & innovative products.

    D) how can one claim tha the iwatch will be a nich market before even this product is out. What are your figures proving this statement. There is certainly no evidence the success of the iwatch but, given the Apple fan army, the bet is more in iwatch's success side.
    Dec 23, 2014. 06:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Eat Your Apple Pie [View article]
    Whatwill you do if the stocks gains back it's recent losses ?
    Dec 16, 2014. 05:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: iPhone Sales May Top $50 Billion [View article]
    You may consider that the ApplePay or the watch are not revenue driving products but how do you know tgat tere aren't other products in the pipeline. We would all be gratefull to you if you could share your insiders informations with us.
    Dec 14, 2014. 05:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone 6 May Have A Longer Upgrade Cycle - If So, Expect Unit Sales To Fall [View article]
    Where can i find this pure law of nature ?
    Dec 7, 2014. 01:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: It Is All About Improving Margins [View article]
    One person having problems doesn't mean anything.
    Nov 16, 2014. 06:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: It Is All About Improving Margins [View article]
    Your assumptions are all based on unproven theories & your feelings but not fact & figures. May be you are going to be right one day in future but, todays facts and figures proves you are wrong.
    But, thanks for pointing out all these long term concerns. Medium term Apple's future seems bright. For the long term one should judge during the next one to 5 years.
    Nov 16, 2014. 06:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Euro Denominated Debt Mean For Apple? [View article]
    Apple's Eurobond will serve for foreign use. Agree with you that if Apple uses that money for sharepurchase, then they shall repay that from $ repariated or earned in USA.
    Nov 13, 2014. 04:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Euro Denominated Debt Mean For Apple? [View article]
    I would have agreed with you if you had not put such a hatresse in presenting your arguments which sound also void of any sain reasoning.
    Nov 13, 2014. 04:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by faramarz
COMMENTS STATS
298 Comments
579 Likes