WheelsComingOff

Cramer's Mad Money - Cramer's Day of Atonement (9/28/09)

I saw that. After that pick, why would you listen to a single thing this circus clown has to say?


On Sep 30 06:37 PM Mark Mansfield wrote:

> Cramer recommended CIT yesterday on thestreet.com... disgusting and
> irresponsible.

Problem Bank List Updated: Sovereign Defaults Ahead?

There is a clause in the Federal Reserve's charter that states that (paraphrased) "in the event of war, outstanding loan payments would be withheld." Maybe this is the fourth option?


On Sep 16 05:34 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> Grow out, with exports collapsing? Tax out of it, with tax receipts
> collapsing? Default? Is that their only choice?

Will Regulation Hobble Capitalism?

The market will always be ahead of the regulators. All you have to do is look at Bernie Madoff. The SEC went through his books 5 times. Our current bubble/crash system/bubble/crash system weeded him out, and should have weeded out all the crappy banks who made bad loans and leveraged deriviatives to the hilt, but it didn't. And why? So our "entire system wouldn't collapse." Whatever.

Capacity's Comeback Strongly Indicates Recession's End

Cash for Clunkers anybody? Keep pulling that demand forward...

Jobless Claims Stuck at 570,000

Wait, I thought the stimulus wasn't "big enough", according to Krugman (that dunce idiot). Maybe we should have "stimulated" $4 trillion. Can you imagine how much prosperity we'd be enjoying right now? We'd all be farting nickels and dancing in the streets in our brand new Prada jumpsuits!!

It's easy to claim that something would or wouldn't happen when there is absolutely no idea what the actual truth is. "Can you imagine where we'd be without the stimulus?" I can only dream...

"Tim Geithner is correct that ending stimulus now would throw the economy back into recession. Depending on your economic philosophy this is either a necessary end to artificial economic support or a vital lifeline preventing untold economic harm."

U.S. National Debt: Deficit Hypocrisy

"A proposal like health care reform should be judged on its own merits and not shelved simply because government spending is currently out-of-whack largely because of a need to stave off the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression."


The real health care reform needed, tort reform, will never happen b/c the trial lawyer lobby is too powerful. And yes, the deficit does need to be considered when our gov't never, ever, makes things better when they gain more control of anything. I would agree with you if they actually made reform suggestions that would work. You think Medicare is bad.....Can you imagine the fraud and waste involved with the hugely massive program that a national health service would be??

Why I'm a Nervous Bull

Great post!


On Aug 26 11:36 AM I need more cowbell wrote:

> Why anyone would rely on technical indicators that while successful
> in the past, have no ability to indicate anything in a totally rigged
> market. A market characterized by:
> - low volume
> - days where 5 stocks, think about that very carefully, 5 stocks
> constitute 30% or more of the TOTAL volume
> - most of the action is between robo-trading with a handful of firms;
> GS, JPM, MS.
> - there is every indication that the mney has been supplied by the
> Fed; present and future taxpayer money is used to prop up the market
> artificailly
> - and oh yes, by the way, the fundamentals have never been poorer;
> backward looking PE's are astronomical, and forward looking are not
> only pricing in perfection, but unachievable perfection.
>
> At least well played blackjack in Veagas, the house only has 0.5%
> edge. This market is 100% rigged.

Increased Deficit Spending: We Can't Afford It

"The budget report is an interesting set of data considering the official GDP revision is due out this week. Remember the markets were extatic when the original second quarter release showed the economy contracted by “only” 1%. Now analysts are expecting that number to be revised to negative 1.5% and there is still a third adjustment which will be released in a few weeks. The strategy appears to be to show the best numbers immediately in order to juice the markets, and then let the details leak out in the less-followed revisions."

This is the key, isn't it? Numbers are ALWAYS revised lower a few months down the road, yet the market has already popped on the "better-than-expected" numbers. You never hear about a pullback based on the "revised" figures. TOTALLY irrational market right now. But, those traders have to keep making money somehow...

Revenue Growth: The Market's Next Catalyst

1. Auto sales are now going to go into the cellar because CFC has ended. This is what pushed up the durable goods order report yesterday.

2. The consumer in the US is still extremely brittle and gunshy. Unemployment is going to stay elevated for quite a while. Our incomes have stayed level for 20 years now. First the wife went to work to buy all our crap. Then our credit cards were maxed out to buy all our crap. Then our houses were overleveraged to buy all our crap. Now, the gov't is trying to deficit spend so we will buy more crap. Savings rates will stay high for quite awhile, and they should.

3. The emerging markets may increase demand for products, but what do we have to offer besides tech? Our manufacturing industries can't compete internationally anymore b/c of increased regulation and pay requirements.

4. It still has yet to be seen what our anti-business gov't is going to do. Taxes will have to increase next year with our incredible, mind boggling deficits.

5. Real estate hasn't bottomed. We still have the CRE, Alt-A, and ARM resets to go through.

You may be right with the emerging markets increasing demand, but it won't be anywhere near the amount of ridiculous spending that we as a nation have done over the last 20 years. Still a LOT of deleveraging to do, and our gov't is still trying to reinflate popped bubbles. Scary stuff!


On Aug 26 10:51 AM Terence Chan wrote:

> Alex,
>
> thanks for your comment. I do agree with your points. I'm not saying
> it's a v-shaped recovery for the US... there will be a lot of headwinds.
> the consumer won't recover that easily. but you're seeing a lot of
> data starting to bottom like auto sales and housing starts. yes it
> will be choppy recovery, but the stock markets are forward looking
> and by the time you get all the data confirming that consumer spending
> has recovered, etc, bull markets are usually close to a year old.
> who knows where it will come from, more stimulus or simply people
> just getting "tired" of this recession. remember, savings rates are
> up and there are a lot of cash in the sidelines. the exact number
> is 25% are still in money market funds. i still think it will be
> a wall of worry for the us markets, but for the emerging markets
> I believe it's a secular bull. maybe this external demand will fuel
> manufacturing activity in the States. the reason why a lot of money
> managers and investors have been left behind in this rally because
> they wait for the tangible data to come out... but the market never
> waits... :)

Coming Soon: Banking Crisis of Historic Proportions

<sigh> Don't be a sheep. Use your brain. For the love of all that's sacred...


On Aug 16 10:34 AM 6343escortsr wrote:

> THANK YOU MR. BUSH AND #$%^&amp; REPUBS.

Grab Your Shorts, The Correction Has Begun

Just one question, Rick...Where is the "growth" going to come from? Where in this completely overleveraged economy? Does growth sprout from green shoots? Maybe from dropping incomes...or rising unemployment (I know, you'll tell me it's a lagging indicator)...or real estate (CRE is taking a dump, ALT-A and ARM resets coming soon)...credit markets are still bad because the banks are using all their cash to trade on this fictional market, and those with AAA credit can't get a loan without 50% down and their firstborn child as collateral. The market is totally unpredictable. We could shoot up to 12k on the Dow, or it could drop to 3k by the end of next year.


On Aug 19 02:15 PM Rick Urban wrote:

> Graham Summers is an irrational bear. All gloom doom. I made tons
> of money since March lows. Locked some gains in and put them in fixed
> income at 5-6%. Still left money in the market and I don't need this
> money for many years. So, the time is on my side. You can analyze
> your charts as much as you want. It tells you a lot about the past
> and very little about the future. Comparing something what happened
> 1929-1933 is also useless as we live in completely different times
> and economies. It just tells you that something happened in the past
> and could happen again. But anything could happen. What are the odds
> and when something can happen, nobody has an idea. Don't make any
> investments decisions on emotions. Yes it is hard! When I read, “my
> fear is…” I don’t need to read any further. In the market you have
> to act as a smart robot. No emotions what so ever.
> First, the March lows were reached because of huge fear and panic,
> accelerated with articles such as this. It had absolutely nothing
> to do with most of the company’s fundamentals. That is why it is
> important to have good solid companies in your portfolio.
> In slow economic times the revenue is going to go down. But just
> look at how healthy these companies are. It is really impressive.
> When growth returns, and you bet it will the earnings will be spectacular
> because of the cost cutting during slowdown.
> Bottom line is I am making money. I know absolutely nothing about
> the future, however common sense is telling me this is not the end
> of the world, especially not the end of America. Having said that
> I believe that my stock portfolio will be higher two years from now.
> All I am doing is that from time to time I lock some gains in and
> sell some stocks to replace them with the one I believe will do better.
> That requires some homework though.
> If you check my posts you will see I was saying the same in March
> and as a result of it I made money. Be a pessimist or an optimist.
> It’s your choice. I prefer to be the latest. All I can say is good
> luck to all of you.

U.S. Consumer: Battered but Not Beaten

The consumer is scared to death! Talk to people, not charts. People are hunkering down, cutting expenses to the bone, scared of losing their jobs, if they haven't already...How do you keep the train rolling with flat income levels over the last twenty years combined with a personal debt % that went through the roof? Consumer confidence is an oxymoron right now

The Earnings Season Party Ends

There's only so many cuts you can make. Companies have shaved to the bone, with no bump in revenues. Still SO much deleveraging needed to be done. If FASB actually follows through with mark-to-market, say goodbye to banks. This could get ugly!

Insiders Continue to Sell, Sell, Sell

How do you time when the JPM and Goldman computers decide it's time to start the downward swing? Fundamentals don't matter anymore. Time to take the chips off the table, IMHO. Risks are getting to dangerous levels.

The New Bull Market Fallacy

Just forwarded your article to a few of my CNBC watching, reality avoiding friends. The amount of green shoots out there are just staggering!!!