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  • Intuitive Surgical Is Surging With Fundamental Supports  [View article]
    “Interesting how firms like Citron buy large put and stock short positions THEN issue their reports. " <--- where is your proof?

    Even if there're high put volume (there's NONE) beforehand, do you have proof it's Citron's work?
    Dec 22, 2012. 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu (BIDU -4.9%) dives for the second time this week (previous) following a downgrade to Hold from Deutsche. The firm predicts Baidu will lose share to Qihoo's (QIHU -3.4%) new search engine due to the latter's giant web browser user base (272M users, or 51% of China's Internet base, according to Qihoo), and the "reasonably good user experience" of Qihoo's engine. But is that engine making use of Baidu's IP and/or search data?  [View news story]
    Go find a chinese friend who lives in china and is an active internet user.
    He/She will tell you the reputation of Qihu in Chinese internet communities. Qihu's CEO is also quite famous for being a 'bad boy' in the Chinese internet industry.

    This is way overblown!
    Aug 23, 2012. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu Q2 Earnings Preview: Brace For A Rocky Quarter  [View article]
    Jiang, can you provide sources of this comment of TAC increase during the union summit? I can't seem to find it anywhere using baidu/sogo search with simplified chinese.
    Jul 23, 2012. 04:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Challenging Baidu's Critics: Buy Into Current Weakness  [View article]
    Let's examine your main arguments:
    1. mobile search or not, Chinese will still use bidu for internet search, thus bidu should not be at risk. In theory is correct but please read BIDU earning transcripts for the last three quarters. Robin Lee (CEO) said it himself, repeatedly, BIDU currently has no way of monetizing its mobile search offering.
    2. Trading at the 52 week low does not make a buy for a stock, it could sink lower.
    3. Low PE given it's growth rate. Recall, the growth rate is in past tense. Just look at the number of customers in the last three quarter earnings, the sequential growth is in low ten and sometimes even negative.
    3. China growth? Have you looked at FXI or Shanghai index recently?
    Jun 28, 2012. 04:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu Could See $150 A Share With Apple Deal  [View article]
    The argument of the current 400M users vs 1.8B total population is like the argument I heard before of "lots of room for growth for shoes and sneakers in Africa."

    Have you ever been to China, especially in the rural areas where most of the population is... Last year the most popular phone in these areas are from local no-name brands offering extreme loud speaker on the phone so that working class laboring in the fields can hear the phone rings...
    Therefore, don't use population and percentage as a gauge of BIDU's potential revenue growth. The real indicator to pay attention to is the total online ad revenue growth in China. From 09 to 11 the rate is no where near 70% when the GDP is of double digit growth, what would you think the rate will be for the next few years of the sub 8 GDP?

    BIDU's 70% growth rate in the last 2 yrs is the 30% annual growth rate of China online ad spending rate, plus the 'google effects'.
    With BIDU being at 78% market share, the google effects is all done, you can tell what's left of the growth rate.
    As a matter of fact, the last 3 Q sequential growth is exactly in this range, so is the stock performance!

    Another fallacy in this article is an iphone 4s costs A LOT more than a local made laptop in China so the arguments of 1. there'll be explosive growth of iphone is questionable, at least to me. and 2. even if there's growth of iphone sales, it does not translate to bidu's growth in mobile space.
    If the author's argument of by offering bidu search in iphone will increase bidu market share another 7%, then why would bidu spending all those R&D$$ to do it's own android clone?

    The problems with most of 'analysis and forecase' for bidu, or any other Chinese ADR is, not really understand the situations of how business are done in China.
    Jun 11, 2012. 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu Could See $150 A Share With Apple Deal  [View article]
    1. Dig deeper into the conference call transcripts for the past four Qs, did you see, even Robin himself had repeatedly said things like explosive growth 'potentials' in the mobile areas, while he also said,
    WE HAVE NOT BEING ABLE TO monetize our mobile search ..

    2. China's TOTAL online ad spending, including mobile, has been growing at less than 20% in the last two yrs, even with market share 'jump' to 87%, please explain how can BIDU maintain the '60-70%' growth rate?
    Jun 10, 2012. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Options Recap  [View article]
    So my question is, if one is bearish on QQQ, why roll down the 62put to 57?
    If QQQ keeps on dropping, won't the 62 put makes more money than the 57 put?
    May 26, 2012. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu Gains Traction In China's Smart Phone Market  [View article]
    From your description of the China smartphone market and BIDU's potential competitors in this segment shows you know absolutely nothing on this subject.

    Alibaba, ZTE, Huawei, Xiaomi, and even China mobile are the competitors, and BIDU stands very little chance to corner the market in a significant way.
    May 25, 2012. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Big Bet On Baidu In The Options Market  [View article]
    Jan 14 option volatility increase is the smallest, to take advantage of volatility crush after earning release, why then pick Jan 14?
    Feb 13, 2012. 11:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chaoda Modern Agriculture: A Green Giant for the Price of a Dwarf?  [View article]
    Anyone still long on this 'crap', you might triple your money in no time @ 1.1 HKD now.

    "(0682.HK), 1.100 , - 0.400 (26.667%), 時間:2011年9月28日 上午 6:38 HKT"
    Sep 28, 2011. 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Technology Stocks Hedge Funds Are Buying Like Crazy  [View article]
    How ironic that the same site (SA) has another article "Top Sells of Viking Global Investors LP" which listed BIDU as the #2 SELLER of the same hedge fund you mentioned in your article. I wonder why...
    Jun 1, 2011. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overseas: Japan +1.6%. Hong Kong -0.3%. China +0.9%. India -0.8%. London +0.03%. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt +0.9.   [View news story]
    at least you guys should check the data before posting!
    China and HK are all off for labor day holiday!
    May 2, 2011. 06:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Baidu's 1000% Increase Since 2008 Justified?  [View article]
    "If you times that by the Chinese population, that is BIDU's theoretical market." --> This is such a fallacy. It's like saying, if Nike sells every individual in Africa a pair of air jordan, Nike will have annual growth of 1000%!
    China population does to equal BIDU's potential revenue. Have you even been to China? 70% of the population are still in rural area with monthly income of < 100 USD! And you expect them to pay BIDU search Ad. $?

    Take a look at the conf call transcript, and compare the 'active customers' numbers of Q4 vs Q3. A merely 2% increase!

    THe reason BIDU has a blow out (not too blow out to me, if you factor in the RMB appreciation!) quarter is they have good growth in the $ per customer spending. And this is due to BIDU's monopoly in the market. Just wait until new competitions (not GOOG, but local ones, and yes they ARE coming) and you'll see if BIDU can continue this run.

    If course, the trick is to continue ride the 'bubble', BUT get off the train before it crashes...
    Feb 2, 2011. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Baidu 'Bubble' Destroys Any Real Valuation  [View article]
    My view of bidu's recent run is that, it has a perfect story for the MMs to make big bucks from you, the average investors.

    1. The story is good. China, the so-called China Internet Population, dominance due to GOOG exit, market cap/valuation comparison to GOOG (which in itself is a fallacy since GOOG has technologies and innovations, other than search, BIDU does not, but I digress).
    2. A company indeed with good earning track records, possibly the mgmt team working in concert with the MMs.

    If you look at the hourly price charts since it's 10-1 splits, and the amazing option volumes for both weekly and monthly options.
    you'll understand why BIDU is the darling of Wall street.
    Every week before Dec when they stop offer weekly options, you'll see this constant reply of the game of "pump the stock and dump the OTM options, then flush the stock and sweep up the OTM options".

    My reading of the 10-1 split is not the bullsh*t argument of 'making it more affordable to the general public". It's for the MMs to make more money out of its option market! Otherwise, why is it that a Chinese ADR will constantly command top spots on the option active list, along with companies like BAC, C etc.
    Even GOOG and AAPL do not enjoy such elite status....

    There's really no point looking at BIDU from valuation viewpoint, it does not matter. As long as they're with no creditable competitors in China, and as long as they can maintain the 1 to 2c earning beats, the con game will continue.

    All I am saying is, buyer beware!
    Dec 9, 2010. 03:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Baidu's 1000% Increase Since 2008 Justified?  [View article]
    BIDU dominates 1/5 of world internet search (China) and GOOG dominates 4/5 of world internet search (everything else). --> This is a fallacy since the 1/5 and 4/5 is counted by search population, NOT revenue. Recall last year when GOOG is still in China and with HIGHER market share than BIDU, it's CHINA search revenue is less than 1% of it's total revenue. Another way of saying is, even if GOOG leaves CHINA completely, it does not put a dent to its revenue growth.

    Your argument is like, There're many many people in Africa with no Nike shoes, so Nike will ....
    Dec 6, 2010. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment