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Manuel Blay

Manuel Blay
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  • Dow Theory Update For August 19: Lessons Learned From The Chinese Stock Market Crash (I)  [View instapost]
    Good remark.

    Would the plunge protection team, QE, etc. still leave the US stocks market as a "free market"? I really don't know. This is stuff for one future post....

    On the other hand, "demand" is "demand" even if it comes from the Fed. I really don't know...

    thx for commenting

    Regards
    Aug 22, 2015. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Theory Update For July 29: Lessons (Re)Learned From The Precious Metals Universe And Chinese Stocks  [View instapost]
    thx for following
    Aug 5, 2015. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Theory Update For April 21: Dow Theory, Trend Following, Noise And Non Parametric Systems  [View instapost]
    Algyros,

    I tried to follow your suggestions. I have made changes on my blog so now you can see my reading of the primary and secondary trend at a glance.

    http://bit.ly/1PGxGK3

    Regards
    May 13, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Theory Update For April 21: Dow Theory, Trend Following, Noise And Non Parametric Systems  [View instapost]
    My "flavor" of the Dow Theory is that of Schannep. My blog has documented extensively not only Schannep's performance but, more importantly, how and why it outperforms the classic Dow Theory, which, in itself is a wonderful trend following tool.

    http://bit.ly/1bUmRYs

    http://bit.ly/1bUmRYx

    I try to avoid posting in an "easy" way current state of the trend, as we have to learn to think by ourselves. However, in many posts I explain the current status of the primary and secondary trend. The last one here:

    http://bit.ly/1bUmRYz

    Thx for following.
    Regards.
    Apr 29, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Theory Special Issue: Dissecting The Classical/Rhea Dow Theory Record  [View instapost]
    Thx for the comment.

    Two brief observations:

    A) Total returns

    I feel that if we include dividends, we should also include them for the followers of the Dow Theory too.

    Since the Dow Theory is roughly 2/3 of the time “in the market”, a fair amount of dividends will accrue to the Dow Theory investors (not included in my study). Thus, we should make “apples to apples” comparisons. If we include dividends for the passive buy and hold, then we should include ca. 2/3 of dividends for those following the Dow Theory. If we included them, we would certainly see the Dow Theory performance increase by a huge measure.

    If you have the time, I’d be extremely thankful if you could include a dividend calculation to the Dow Theory (classical) record. We would all be astonished. I will give you credit for the results.

    B) Risk.

    Returns should be coupled with risk. When it comes to risk, we should bear in mind that the Dow Theory does an excellent job at keeping it at bay. However, as you say, “no individual investor has the same time frame to invest”. Most individual investors lack either the psychological fortitude or the financial means (need to tap on equity at the bottom of the drawdown) to survive the drawdowns inherent with any buy and hold approach

    Regards
    Manuel
    Feb 28, 2015. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: The Problem Are The Five Es [View article]
    By the way, I greatly appreciate your work. My hall of fame is very reduced (maximum 7-8 names), you and Schannep rank highest in my hall of fame. I have followed your work for the last 2 years and I find more value in the free area of your website than in many subscriber services (Schannep excluded, he also delivers value).

    If it is a failed signal (the Dow Theory has its small share of losers too), then it was a scare.

    If the signal is not failed then I fear it is something more grizzly as you rightly say.
    Oct 16, 2014. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks finish well off intraday lows, but still ugly [View news story]
    Stocks are in a primary bear market since October 10, as explained here on SA:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: The Problem Are The Five Es [View article]
    While the current decline not reaching (yet) the "magic" threshold of -20% doesn't strictly quality as a bear market, according to my interpretation of the Dow Theory (which is not anchored on a hard-and-fast number such as -20%, but rather technical patterns), stocks are in a primary bear market since October 10th.

    Primary bear markets (even though they have been signaled well before the -20% threshold has been reached), as spotted by the Dow Theory, tend to have long legs. While nobody knows the future, and it could be a failed signal (a ca. 30% probability), technically something ominous has happened as explained here in SA:


    http://seekingalpha.co...

    All in all, under a Dow Theory standpoint, the well-established Dow Theory record tells us that lower prices are a distinct possibility for the weeks and even months ahead.
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Happening Now Is Profound [View article]
    While the official decline for a bear market to be declared is -20%, according to my interpretation of the Dow Theory, stocks are in a primary bear market since October 10th.

    Primary bear markets (even though they have been signaled well before the -20% threshold has been reached), as spotted by the Dow Theory, tend to have long legs. While nobody knows the future, and it could be a failed signal (a ca. 30% probability), technically something ominous has happened as explained here in SA:


    http://seekingalpha.co...

    All in all, under a Dow Theory standpoint, we cannot know whether this is going to be a repeat of Japan, but the well-established Dow Theory record tells us that lower prices are a distinct possibility for the weeks and even months ahead.
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Signals In Junior Miners Flashing “Strong Buy” [View instapost]
    Volume is particularly bullish for GDXJ. Not only OBV confirms the nascent trend, but:

    a) Bullish volume (expansion on rallies) greatly exceeded that of GDX. The last up leg witnessed monster volume.

    b) The ratio of the average volume of up days versus down days has been also remarkably bullish (more bullish than in GDX, which is bullish itself), and this situation has persisted during the current consolidation, as was explained on SA:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 3, 2014. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Theory Update For May 23: SPY Makes Higher Closing High And Confirms The Transports  [View instapost]
    Hi Sharpe_Spectator,

    You raise a valid point. One of the tenets of the Dow Theory is that the daily movements and even secondary trends may be manipulated. Most technical signals belong in this shorter term timeframe. However, the primary trend, like a powerful tide, cannot be manipulated. This is why Dow Theorists invest along the primary trend (which lasts on average 1-2 years) and dismiss the secondary trend for investment purposes (to avoid the manipulation you are mentioning). Of course, this is not a “dogma," and things may have changed, and maybe nowadays even the primary trend might be subject to some influence by the Fed. Nevertheless, I’d rather run this risk than blindly believing my own ego-filled fundamental assumptions about the economy, the health of stocks, etc. Nowadays it is often made the point that the Fed is manipulating upwards stocks. I tend to believe it. However, whatever the underlying reason, what I see (and if you follow my blog you will see that I have been bullish amidst a sea of bearishness) is that the primary trend is “up." Even if the Fed started to monetize all stocks (and this would be manipulation) the fact would remain that stocks would be going up. Here the time-tested adage “don’t fight the trend” comes in handy.
    May 28, 2014. 06:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS: Gold upside breakout hopes dashed; platinum too [View news story]
    Gold and silver have rallied without conviction in the last few days. And we should not forget that the primary trend for both metals remains bearish. On the other hand, SIL and GDX, the gold and silver miners ETFs may be providing some tailwind to gold and silver, since today, Jan 17, their secondary trend turned bullish according to the Dow Theory, as explained here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    So long term both gold, silver and their miners are in bearish trend, but something is changing as far as the intermediate or secondary trend is concerned.
    Jan 17, 2014. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 More Likely To Break 2000 Than Experience A Correction By Mid-2014 [View article]
    I agree with the author from a different perspective. The primary trend for stocks is bullish as defined by the Dow Theory. The average gain for each position taken according to primary bull markets as defined by the Dow Theory is 22.07% (here you have the details:

    http://seekingalpha.co... )

    If we consider that we are already in a secular bull market (I am agnostic as to whether we are in a "secular" bull or bear market), the average gain jumps to 53.37% ( http://seekingalpha.co... )

    The unrealized profit for the current position taken in July 2013 amounts to 9.37%, so it seems that the odds favor more profits and that the bullish run-up is not exhausted yet.

    Regards
    Dec 31, 2013. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Theory Update For December 30: Timing The Next Primary Bear Market In Stocks [View instapost]
    Yes, I can explain.

    The link I provided merely tells us that one fundamentalist investor threw the towel and joined the bullish wagon. It was just a new, which I happened to read on ZH, as I could have found it in any other website. Thus, the link I provided makes no calls about market direction.

    Personally, I am fiercely independent with a strong Dow Theory bias. So I take ZH, and any other financial service for this matter with a grain of salt or two. It is easier to write about money than making it (which also applies to this blogger truly yours).

    Happy new year and good trading.
    Dec 31, 2013. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Floor Fallacy [View article]
    I agree with the author: prices can go lower in spite of producing costs. One shouldn't underestimate the power of bear markets. For one year now, gold has been under the grip of a vicious primary bear market as explained here on SA:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Bear markets don't die easily, in spite of the cost of production.
    Dec 24, 2013. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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