LawrenceWang's  Instablog

$BIDU, so-called "the biggest Chinese search engine” released a pretty good earnings, “doing butter than expected” shall be the best news in this cool economy status, however, investors are not satisfied with its lowered revenue guidance for the next quarter. The stock is getting hit with great vol right now in market: down over $50 in the mid day trading (11.5%)

 NCTY, one of the biggest Chinese gaming company, reported that Q2 '09 revenue declined 32% to about $40 million while the company swung to a loss of about $12 million from a gain of $14.5 million in Q2 '08, The9 lost its license to run the “World of Warcraft” in China few months ago so that most expected its business to take a hit.

In fact, The9 made a stratagy mistake in the process of arguing with WoW owner Activision Blizzard in April. Blizzard finnaly chose competitor NetEase to operate the game in China after  The9's license expired on June 7. Given that WoW consisted of nearly all of the company's revenue, it's obvious The9 has no alternative plan to revive its business,even though its management said in the earnings release that it had invested in a few game development studios and had entered into licensing agreement for other games like World of Fighter andKingdom Heroes 2.

Investors in NCTY must be painful for the losing of 40% from $13 since the news of WoW released, however, the worse is: whether The9 itself know how to survive the firece competition, certainly, long term investors may hold their hope because of the vaule of cash in The9 is more than the market capital.

 Western housing price was going down, Russia, one of the astonishing emerging markets, also see the sign of the capital’s troubled property market–some prefer to blame “people cannot produce demand” instead of the excuse of the global crisis. It was reported about Moscow property tycoons, they lose their wealth so rapidly in the past year, even much quicker than they got the “accounting value”. Most Chinese investors have never experienced such sort of valve changing in real estate market, they cannot imagine how prices have tumbled 60 per cent inside a year even they once verified Shanghai real estate was reasonable by comparing to Moscow in 2005-2007.

The results are visible all over the Moscow, many plans and projects have been frozen. The property shock was so sudden, worse than most expected in past 6 months. Some decision based on wrong analyzing at early this year intensified the crisis. Research showed a 20-30 per cent drop so far this year and estate agents report sales 30 per cent below asking prices.

Residential property, which quadrupled since 2000 to peak at almost $26,000 per square metre in prime locations last year, is also falling back to earth with a bump as Russia’s oil-fuelled economic boom has turned to bust.

Some rich guys may have to clean up other problems. Russia tax agent takes a series of investigation on property magnates after they fail to find financial sourcing. It is believed by most Russia people every property developer must be involved in business bribes for grabbing loan and lands, it seems this common view is popular in China either.

Banks, the direct “victims” ( beneficiary? Some Chinese guys insist the bullish thinking), have growing property portfolios as they have to take over buildings for unpaid debts.

… …

It is not just a number game; the over-heating market deeply hurt the real economy and makes it almost impossible to recover soon. China will copy all these? At least, currently, none dares to venture a “sell” to China market despite of a lofty valuation in the real estate and capital market.

Go to see BullishChina.com for more stories.
Disclosure: No positions