American Capital Agency Among The Worst mREITs [View article]
It's very tempting to jump in and buy AGNC et al at these fire sale prices....however, the Q2 dividends and BV are soon to be announced and there may be some surprises to the downside (not necessarily AGNC, but other big names like NLY and ARR (uggh!). This may add more fuel to the fire that is causing the stampede to the exits of the weak hands and scared money. Keep the powder dry and wait it out. This could prove to be the sweet spot for mReits at the moment if you look beyond this period of valuation adjustment. The asset mispricing may be at the peak now in relation to SP values looking out 12-24months. Then again, hope springs eternal!
Growing thoughts of a tapering and then ending of QE∞ triggers panicky selling in the mREIT sector (MORT -2.3%) as Treasury yields hit their highest level in more than a year (the 10-year at 2.12%), and mortgage prices slide as well (MBB -0.4%). Leading the way is a 5.3% decline in American Capital Agency. Annaly (NLY -2.7%), Two Harbors (TWO -3%), Anworth (ANH -2.2%), Western Asset (WMC -4.7%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.7%), Javelin (JMI -4.3%), Invesco (IVR -1.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -1.5%). [View news story]
I think Mr. Santos has an agenda (short!) Certainly very little understanding or appreciation of the history of the mReit sector nor of the ability of management to hedge and trade their MBS portfolios. He says "...at some point the industry will go kaput." Yeah right.
Growing thoughts of a tapering and then ending of QE∞ triggers panicky selling in the mREIT sector (MORT -2.3%) as Treasury yields hit their highest level in more than a year (the 10-year at 2.12%), and mortgage prices slide as well (MBB -0.4%). Leading the way is a 5.3% decline in American Capital Agency. Annaly (NLY -2.7%), Two Harbors (TWO -3%), Anworth (ANH -2.2%), Western Asset (WMC -4.7%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.7%), Javelin (JMI -4.3%), Invesco (IVR -1.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -1.5%). [View news story]
Growing thoughts of a tapering and then ending of QE∞ triggers panicky selling in the mREIT sector (MORT -2.3%) as Treasury yields hit their highest level in more than a year (the 10-year at 2.12%), and mortgage prices slide as well (MBB -0.4%). Leading the way is a 5.3% decline in American Capital Agency. Annaly (NLY -2.7%), Two Harbors (TWO -3%), Anworth (ANH -2.2%), Western Asset (WMC -4.7%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.7%), Javelin (JMI -4.3%), Invesco (IVR -1.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -1.5%). [View news story]
The mReit sector just recovered (sort of) from a massive selloff last October/November on news that the Fed was going to extend and increase QE. Now everyone is hitting the sell button because of news that QE is going to be tapered off, thus giving rise to an increase in spreads and rising dividends. Am I crazy or does the average investor in this sector just not have a clue as to how they function in various economic environments? mReits seem to behave like junior mining stocks...maybe a buying opportunity or time to just get the hell out. I'm sick of this unwarranted volatility
Hey Kenney1037 quote: "I always get a smile out of those that use these message threads to promote their own investing philosophies and attempt to vindicate themselves with apparent winning trades in front of others who could care less."
I just bought ARR @ $6.20/share and it's now trading at $6.36!! Damn I love outsmarting the market and using this forum to let everyone know about it yehaw!
Corvette: Math never was my forte!!...65M new shares @6.75/share is $438.75M new capital NOT $4.4B as I incorrectly stated. Thanks for pointing that out. With respect to communicating to shareholders, you are right,they are not prevented from direct communications. What I meant was that the legal and regulatory issues that might arise with respect to communicating in writing (email or otherwise) anything relating to the current or future performance of the share price is enough to dissuade publicly traded companies from doing so. That's why they rely on accredited institutional analysts to convey the information to individual shareholders. And yes, I agree with you that the quality of that analysis varies greatly!
Reit Analyst: I may be mistaken, but I thought at one time in the not too distant past that you had a more positive take on ARR. I would be very interested as to what has changed you mind enough to go short, Thanks
Corvette Kid: Thanks for your comments and the link to the article referencing ARR.
1. With respect to the issue of ARR responding to shareholder inquiries, legal issues prevent publicly traded entities from commenting directly to shareholder inquiries re share price, etc. The point is, if someone is going to write analytical commentary on a site which pays the writer per clic, and furthermore, if those articles are going to influence investor decisions in the market, then every effort must be taken to substantiate claims or opinions contained in those published reports. I am sure ARR maintains relationships with accredited analysts in the investment banking community, so information is available and also, they do publish a vast amount of information on their website. 2. On the issue of share dilution vs accretive affect of capital raisedvia new issues of common stock, I am sure that management did not just wake up one day and decide to raise $4.4 billion new capital without having made plans for the placement of those funds with the issuers of MBS securities. They will maintain close relationships with the issuers and have firm commitments for the placement those funds on a timely basis. They would most certainly not allow those funds to sit around negatively impacting the dividend going forward and will have contingency plans for accounting for this.
I get totally fed up with this sort of "junk" analysis posing as real information. Has the author actually spoken with the management of the company to determine what the strategy is with respect to the funds raised via the latest equity offering? How is it that these funds (from the secondary offering) will be dilutive when the proceeds will be used to purchase MBS assets which will in fact maintain or increase shareholder dividends.? Has the author actually done anything to verify his assumptions about what ARR management is doing with respect to actively trading/hedging their MBS portfolio to navigate the current interest rate spread situation now and for the future? And furthermore, as someone pointed out earlier in this discussion, WHY is it a problem if the funds are only available for part of the year? This statement makes no sense at all. It seems as if each time there is a report by an MReit of a dividend cut or drop in book value (which anyone who is invested in this sector has been expecting for some time given the Fed intervention), the "analysts" and "clic hustlers" jump on the bandwagon with all sorts of unsubstantiated claims of pending disaster. Posting a few graphs and other documents for SEC filings does not make for analysis unless the information is substantiated with factual analysis, not assumptions. We saw that last October/November folks...and look what happened. I maintain a significant position in ARR and plan on keeping it, and will add to it soon unless I read something written by an informed analyst that convinces me otherwise.
The Obama administration's decision on the Keystone oil pipeline (TRP) will not be made until at least June, a U.S. official tells Reuters, which would delay the project for months and frustrate backers of Canada's oil sands. "It's not weeks until the final decision," according to the source. "It's months." [View news story]
deercreekvols:
I will suggest that this time the can is being kicked down the road to allow for the new Secretary of State, John Kerry, to get up to speed on the Keystone issue. He can then claim that "further study" is needed (how many years of study does it take to approve a pipeline these days?) re the environmental issues and allow time for the well financed "Green" lobby to put up more road blocks. Meanwhile, our (Canada's) proposed pipeline route to the east coast should be well on the way to being obstructed by Quebec, First Nations land claims, tree huggers and anyone else that thinks we can perpetuate economic growth with gerbil wheels and wind power. Anyone interested in buying a slightly used electric car (can't find anywhere to recharge it on the road!), real cheap?? (hint: think cost-effective energy distribution infrastructure, Mr. Kerry)
The Obama administration's decision on the Keystone oil pipeline (TRP) will not be made until at least June, a U.S. official tells Reuters, which would delay the project for months and frustrate backers of Canada's oil sands. "It's not weeks until the final decision," according to the source. "It's months." [View news story]
joe kelly; I quote you: "Plus, like it or not, Mideast oil is better than Canadian. Cheaper to refine". How do you figure that? How much does it cost to ship via tanker through the Strait of Hormuz and then across the ocean to US refineries? Add to that the massive cost of providing military defense in the region to secure the supplies. The heavy crude that is shipped in the existing pipelines already has gone through a refinery upgrading to push it through the pipe, so when it arrives (securely, I might add) at the refinery, it's not much different than light crude on tankers. What baffles me the most is that the oilsands and much of the oil supply infrastructure in Alberta has been developed with US$ capital in conjunction with US scientific and engineering expertise, raw materials and highly skilled labor over the past 90 years. We are almost a US territory here (Calgary goes into standby mode during US civic holidays), and so I don't understand all the fuss about building a damn pipeline to ship the oil your country has spend billions developing!! This is a huge infrastructure project that will provide thousands of high paying jobs and inject billions into the GDP of both countries. Don't make no sense at all, now does it?
The Obama administration's decision on the Keystone oil pipeline (TRP) will not be made until at least June, a U.S. official tells Reuters, which would delay the project for months and frustrate backers of Canada's oil sands. "It's not weeks until the final decision," according to the source. "It's months." [View news story]
You've made some good points here, MJonza. I will add that while it has been suggested the US will be able to meet a much larger portion of domestic oil production requirements over the next few years, that situation most likely won't last long. Most of the new production is coming from "tight" shale accesible now due to enhanced drilling and extraction technologies. Drillers used to just go right past that stuff on the way to bigger targets, so it is not held in large resevoirs as in the Middle East or North Sea. As the old saying goes "we don't pray for rain till the well runs dry", and it will run dry faster than a jackrabbit trying to outrun the buckshot, eventually.
The Obama administration's decision on the Keystone oil pipeline (TRP) will not be made until at least June, a U.S. official tells Reuters, which would delay the project for months and frustrate backers of Canada's oil sands. "It's not weeks until the final decision," according to the source. "It's months." [View news story]
Well I'm from Alberta and oil runs in our veins up here. So you don't want to secure oil from a friendly democracy next door, you'd rather buy from nations that support terrorism and have a history of collusion in pricing the commodity, is that right? OK, we'll just sell it to China because at least they have the foresight to understand that securing supplies from a friendly, stable country like Canada is much better that the alternative. And as for your conspiracy theories about the price of oil, my advice is to spend some time developing an understanding about how the markets price the commodity via futures contracts, hedging etc.
What Can Investors Expect From Annaly Capital Management The First Quarter [View article]
I'm completely mystified as to how someone could get published here an article that purports to be an analysis of a company about which the author clearly hasn't got a clue. I'm rapidly losing faith in SA as a source of reliable, well-thought out information. Unbelievable!
American Capital Agency Among The Worst mREITs [View article]
Then again, hope springs eternal!
Growing thoughts of a tapering and then ending of QE∞ triggers panicky selling in the mREIT sector (MORT -2.3%) as Treasury yields hit their highest level in more than a year (the 10-year at 2.12%), and mortgage prices slide as well (MBB -0.4%). Leading the way is a 5.3% decline in American Capital Agency. Annaly (NLY -2.7%), Two Harbors (TWO -3%), Anworth (ANH -2.2%), Western Asset (WMC -4.7%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.7%), Javelin (JMI -4.3%), Invesco (IVR -1.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -1.5%). [View news story]
Growing thoughts of a tapering and then ending of QE∞ triggers panicky selling in the mREIT sector (MORT -2.3%) as Treasury yields hit their highest level in more than a year (the 10-year at 2.12%), and mortgage prices slide as well (MBB -0.4%). Leading the way is a 5.3% decline in American Capital Agency. Annaly (NLY -2.7%), Two Harbors (TWO -3%), Anworth (ANH -2.2%), Western Asset (WMC -4.7%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.7%), Javelin (JMI -4.3%), Invesco (IVR -1.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -1.5%). [View news story]
And the point you are trying to make is....???
Growing thoughts of a tapering and then ending of QE∞ triggers panicky selling in the mREIT sector (MORT -2.3%) as Treasury yields hit their highest level in more than a year (the 10-year at 2.12%), and mortgage prices slide as well (MBB -0.4%). Leading the way is a 5.3% decline in American Capital Agency. Annaly (NLY -2.7%), Two Harbors (TWO -3%), Anworth (ANH -2.2%), Western Asset (WMC -4.7%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.7%), Javelin (JMI -4.3%), Invesco (IVR -1.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -1.5%). [View news story]
Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
quote:
"I always get a smile out of those that use these message threads to promote their own investing philosophies and attempt to vindicate themselves with apparent winning trades in front of others who could care less."
I just bought ARR @ $6.20/share and it's now trading at $6.36!! Damn I love outsmarting the market and using this forum to let everyone know about it yehaw!
Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
Math never was my forte!!...65M new shares @6.75/share is $438.75M new capital NOT $4.4B as I incorrectly stated. Thanks for pointing that out.
With respect to communicating to shareholders, you are right,they are not prevented from direct communications. What I meant was that the legal and regulatory issues that might arise with respect to communicating in writing (email or otherwise) anything relating to the current or future performance of the share price is enough to dissuade publicly traded companies from doing so. That's why they rely on accredited institutional analysts to convey the information to individual shareholders. And yes, I agree with you that the quality of that analysis varies greatly!
Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
I may be mistaken, but I thought at one time in the not too distant past that you had a more positive take on ARR. I would be very interested as to what has changed you mind enough to go short,
Thanks
Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
Thanks for your comments and the link to the article referencing ARR.
1. With respect to the issue of ARR responding to shareholder inquiries, legal issues prevent publicly traded entities from commenting directly to shareholder inquiries re share price, etc. The point is, if someone is going to write analytical commentary on a site which pays the writer per clic, and furthermore, if those articles are going to influence investor decisions in the market, then every effort must be taken to substantiate claims or opinions contained in those published reports. I am sure ARR maintains relationships with accredited analysts in the investment banking community, so information is available and also, they do publish a vast amount of information on their website.
2. On the issue of share dilution vs accretive affect of capital raisedvia new issues of common stock, I am sure that management did not just wake up one day and decide to raise $4.4 billion new capital without having made plans for the placement of those funds with the issuers of MBS securities. They will maintain close relationships with the issuers and have firm commitments for the placement those funds on a timely basis. They would most certainly not allow those funds to sit around negatively impacting the dividend going forward and will have contingency plans for accounting for this.
Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
And furthermore, as someone pointed out earlier in this discussion, WHY is it a problem if the funds are only available for part of the year? This statement makes no sense at all.
It seems as if each time there is a report by an MReit of a dividend cut or drop in book value (which anyone who is invested in this sector has been expecting for some time given the Fed intervention), the "analysts" and "clic hustlers" jump on the bandwagon with all sorts of unsubstantiated claims of pending disaster. Posting a few graphs and other documents for SEC filings does not make for analysis unless the information is substantiated with factual analysis, not assumptions. We saw that last October/November folks...and look what happened.
I maintain a significant position in ARR and plan on keeping it, and will add to it soon unless I read something written by an informed analyst that convinces me otherwise.
The Obama administration's decision on the Keystone oil pipeline (TRP) will not be made until at least June, a U.S. official tells Reuters, which would delay the project for months and frustrate backers of Canada's oil sands. "It's not weeks until the final decision," according to the source. "It's months." [View news story]
I will suggest that this time the can is being kicked down the road to allow for the new Secretary of State, John Kerry, to get up to speed on the Keystone issue. He can then claim that "further study" is needed (how many years of study does it take to approve a pipeline these days?) re the environmental issues and allow time for the well financed "Green" lobby to put up more road blocks.
Meanwhile, our (Canada's) proposed pipeline route to the east coast should be well on the way to being obstructed by Quebec, First Nations land claims, tree huggers and anyone else that thinks we can perpetuate economic growth with gerbil wheels and wind power. Anyone interested in buying a slightly used electric car (can't find anywhere to recharge it on the road!), real cheap?? (hint: think cost-effective energy distribution infrastructure, Mr. Kerry)
The Obama administration's decision on the Keystone oil pipeline (TRP) will not be made until at least June, a U.S. official tells Reuters, which would delay the project for months and frustrate backers of Canada's oil sands. "It's not weeks until the final decision," according to the source. "It's months." [View news story]
I quote you: "Plus, like it or not, Mideast oil is better than Canadian. Cheaper to refine".
How do you figure that? How much does it cost to ship via tanker through the Strait of Hormuz and then across the ocean to US refineries? Add to that the massive cost of providing military defense in the region to secure the supplies. The heavy crude that is shipped in the existing pipelines already has gone through a refinery upgrading to push it through the pipe, so when it arrives (securely, I might add) at the refinery, it's not much different than light crude on tankers.
What baffles me the most is that the oilsands and much of the oil supply infrastructure in Alberta has been developed with US$ capital in conjunction with US scientific and engineering expertise, raw materials and highly skilled labor over the past 90 years. We are almost a US territory here (Calgary goes into standby mode during US civic holidays), and so I don't understand all the fuss about building a damn pipeline to ship the oil your country has spend billions developing!! This is a huge infrastructure project that will provide thousands of high paying jobs and inject billions into the GDP of both countries. Don't make no sense at all, now does it?
The Obama administration's decision on the Keystone oil pipeline (TRP) will not be made until at least June, a U.S. official tells Reuters, which would delay the project for months and frustrate backers of Canada's oil sands. "It's not weeks until the final decision," according to the source. "It's months." [View news story]
The Obama administration's decision on the Keystone oil pipeline (TRP) will not be made until at least June, a U.S. official tells Reuters, which would delay the project for months and frustrate backers of Canada's oil sands. "It's not weeks until the final decision," according to the source. "It's months." [View news story]
And as for your conspiracy theories about the price of oil, my advice is to spend some time developing an understanding about how the markets price the commodity via futures contracts, hedging etc.
What Can Investors Expect From Annaly Capital Management The First Quarter [View article]