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  • More on Apple's Web TV: What about NBC, basic pay TV channels? [View news story]
    I hope Apple can get this right. I have no cable. Just broadcast TV. Paying for too much junk. I would like a couple of sports channels like ESPN ala cart but only during football season. I would even pay per view if its reasonable. That's just about it. I get enough movies on NetFlix. I will very occasionally buy a movie off Amazon. No MSNBC? What's not to like. I suspect most people are getting tired of the high cost of cable. There is just so much TV you can digest. Apple may be getting into the market too late. Unless they can come with a much better product tailored to the individual, it may be a wasted effort.

    Mar 17, 2015. 01:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: Higher Dreamliner Deliveries Will Boost Revenue In 2016 [View article]
    This analysis is awful naive. The chart showing deliveries is not weighted to either delivered price or profit margin. The profit on a 737 can be very thin for a large purchase order. The 737 has become almost a commodity item, there is not much difference between Airbus and Boeing products. Best price usually wins the order.

    I don't know what the current margins are on a 747, but when it was the only choice for a very large jet, the margins were much larger than 10%. At that time the 747 product line produced more profit than the 737 even though there were many more deliveries. The high margins on top of the high value of the aircraft made it a cash cow. This is just an example, I don't know what the current margins are currently for any of the aircraft. I can tell you that they are not the same across the product line.

    For competitive reasons Boeing does not publish actual cost to produce each aircraft or the negotiated sales price of any order. The critical issue to increasing profits, as always, is to keep pushing production costs down. You can't sell at a loss and make it up in volume.

    I also take issue with the comment that Boeing and Airbus will split the orders. The lower end of the 737 line will see increasing competition from Comac, Embraer, Bombardier, and possibly Sukhoi. The aircraft are just coming into the market but they are cheap, government supported, use proven engines and avionics, and are expected to perform well in their niche.

    There is always the risk of having costs go up when production increases. This happened mid 90's when the 737 production rates were increased. Supply chains were disrupted and company had to shut down the line for a couple of weeks just to catch up with unfinished work. It was horribly bungled.

    Another issue with backlogs is cancellations. When the market turns soft it goes soft quickly. This has happened. A global downturn could easily cut the backlog in half. If aircraft leasing companies start canceling orders, sell in a hurry.

    History shows building commercial aircraft is not without risk. There have been about 10 primary commercial airframe manufacturers, now there are two and some minor players. Its been said that you bet the company whenever you develop and build a new aircraft. If it wasn't for the fact that the 787 is a very attractive product (customers were willing to wait for delivery) and a very good recovery by Boeing from a some really horrible management (ie Harry Stonecipher), Boeing would currently be in a very bad financial situation.

    Sorry I got long winded on the subject. I am long on Boeing. I think it is great company and it currently has great managers. They are doing the right things. Just looking at the number of planes in backlog is not a good indicator of the companies health or future profitability.
    Feb 21, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Will Roar Once Greece Is Cured [View article]
    This is another step in the slow motion European/Eurozone/Euro... Union melt down. This does not cure the Greek problem. The Greek problem got worse with the "anti-austerity" mandate in the last election. They will have to borrow more money to cover the new spending. Greece is holding the "loan us more money or we will default" gun to the head of the loaner banks. The European problem is that Greeks don't have an independent, market driven currency that can be punished. Unless Greece and the other problem countries get a firm handle on their spending EU and the Eurozone countries will be forced to restructure. There were very strict government/economic responsibility standards that were a condition for entry in the Eurozone which were intended to prevent this kind of nonsense. Once included, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal felt free to ignore those standards. If Europe muddles through the Greek issue there will still be problems. I predict the Euro will become a baseline currency and each of the Eurozone countries will be forced to issue there own currency which will float relative to the Euro. This is the only way the Euro will survive albeit it's significance will be diminished. Britain, which kept the Pound but allows trade in Euros, never joined. I suspect the Brits foresaw this type issue.
    Feb 12, 2015. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing restructures defense and space unit [View news story]
    Not a lot of information here. Boeing will "restructure" it's management when ever they want to make it look like they addressing a major customer concern. This may involve adding additional layers and/or streamlining management. Boeing will just "reassign" management when its a minor issue with the customer. We will have to wait for the details to figure out if this is significant. Who gets moved, where they get moved and is it a up, down or lateral.
    Feb 11, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Boeing Reported Impressive Q4 Earnings - The Stock Getting Stronger [View article]
    With deliveries for new orders generally 5+ years in the future the current cost of fuel is not very relevant. The cost of energy will have peaks and valleys but it will trend up. As the standards of living in China and India improve, their energy comsumption is going to increase over time and costs will go up. Even if orders dry up for a couple of years, the back log will sustain the company. This is a company doing very well in the short term and will do well long term also. The company has gotten a lot smarter since Harry Stonecipher. They are now continiously spending money to improve the product. If they had done that 15 years ago Airbus will be struggling to stay in business. They also need a new aircraft to replace the 757 and not just rely on stretched 737s to fill the gap.
    Jan 31, 2015. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Boeing Reported Impressive Q4 Earnings - The Stock Getting Stronger [View article]
    With deliveries for new orders generally 5+ years in the future the current cost of fuel is not relevant. The cost of energy will have peaks and valleys but it will trend up. As the standards of living in China and India improve, their energy comsumption is going to increase over time. Even if orders dry up for a couple of years, the back log will sustain the company. This is a company doing very well in the short term and will do well long term also. The company has gotten a lot smarter since Harry Stonecipher. They are continiusly improving the product. If they had done that 15 years ago Airbus will be struggling to stay in business.
    Jan 31, 2015. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Xiaomi Is Not A Threat To Apple [View article]
    The thing that makes Apple a great system is the seamless melding of the hardware and the software. There are three pieces that make the handset great: Software, Hardware and Integration. Then there is the support and the "Ecosystem" apps, and iTunes which also attract customers. The writer did not even mention the operating system in that long article. I suspect the writer is writing about a product that he has not even touched.

    Apparently GoodmanHK actually tried to look at one and the seller recommended something different. That could be a supply problem or a telling comment on the quality of the handset. It was not clear if Goodman actually got to try one.

    If Xaiomi is operating on Android, it is just another cheap Android phone that looks like an Apple product.

    The writer goes on to say that Apple will crush estimates but does not give much explanation. Very little substantiation. No explaination of sales expectations vs actual sales. Is he psychic? Should I trust his "beliefs"?

    This sort of article is becoming the norm for Seeking Alpha. Very little information or insight but a lot of words. Seeking Alpha is getting close to the automatic Junk Email folder. I wasted more time on this than I should have.
    Jan 19, 2015. 06:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Xiaomi Is Not A Threat To Apple [View article]
    The thing that makes Apple, Apple is the tight integration of the software and the hardware. The software is a key element. The writer did not mention that in this long article. The writer apparently has not had one in his hand to compare the two. Only one of the commenters (GoodmanHK) had access to one, and the seller recommended another brand. It wasn't clear if Goodman even had the chance to opperate one. If the Xiaomi is running Android, its just another cheap Android phone.
    Jan 19, 2015. 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft And Windows 10: Release Date, Price And More [View article]
    This article is what is wrong with Seeking Alpha. An "analyst" takes vauge, somewhat old quotes from two persons (Turner and Meyerson) mixes with opinionated assertations (Windows 8 a failure) and fluffs it into a couple of hunderd words. Its the same thing I used to do trying to get my word count up on a high school social studies term paper. The article was originally published about 3 weeks ago and shows up in my mailbox today. Waste of my time. Even worse I wasted additional time venting.
    Dec 29, 2014. 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft And Windows 10: Release Date, Price And More [View article]
    An awful funny comment.
    Dec 29, 2014. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Boeing's Q3 results [View news story]
    After taking a look at the actual statements the operating cash flow is way down for both the quarter and the prior nine months. I am not sure how this could be with earnings and margins up unless there have been some huge unreported expenses. What am I missing?
    Oct 22, 2014. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Boeing's Q3 results [View news story]
    I don't understand the drop. Is there something hidden in the results that I missed? I would have guessed a programmed sell anticipating bad news but it has dropped even more after the numbers were released. I would buy more but I already have too many eggs in that basket and I am looking for an opportunity to sell some.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Is Threatening To Break Down [View article]
    That was a whole lot of nothing. Contradicting information and no explanation. Poorly written, I have no idea the point that is being made.
    Oct 15, 2014. 11:35 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Set To Lose Big Time In EU State Aid Case [View article]
    How can Apple be held liable for complying with the local laws? The EU has a longstanding complaint against Ireland for setting corporate tax rates too low. Since Ireland refuses to accommodate the EU, the EU's new strategy is to harass companies that do business from Ireland. Its pretty sleazy even for the EU.

    The EU is a flawed concept. If the union is going to continue they have to restructure. All members will have to have identical tax structure, all will have identical social spending, limits will need to be placed on deficit spending. Until then the member countries and the EU residents will do whatever is in their own best interest, not what is in the best interest of the EU.
    Oct 2, 2014. 01:34 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: The Airbus A330neo, A Real Competitor For The Boeing 787? (Part 5) [View article]
    To Eddie: Boeing's big mistake was not renewing it's product line under the "leadership" of Harry Stonecipher. It really did let Airbus into the market. He chose to use the money to try to inflate the stock price with buybacks. It was short sighted and worst of all it did not work. But he was, maybe still is, the largest stockholder so if it worked it would have been self serving.

    A general comment on this series of articles. All modern jetliners will perform about the same using the same technology engines. You can talk about it forever, in any kind of detail you want, but it is a fact. At that point it becomes a issue of which aircraft fits their route better (capacity, range, speed, turnaround time, etc), maintenance/repair costs, off-optimum performance, customer support, acquisition cost, existing fleet and delivery time. If an aircraft is not a good match for the routes, say it runs 10-15% empty, there is no way it will make money regardless of fuel consumption. Can it do the high density route without a stop? Do you really need the range if you are going to have make the stop anyway? Very few routes use the aircrafts extreme range. The 787 tried to address maintenance costs as a priority. If successful that saving should show up in about 10years. Delivery times stretching out 5 years is a big consideration. Cost and financing are always near the top of any decision chart. The next generation of Boeing/Airbus aircraft will have next generation fuel consumption. The 737/A320 performance/size/range is so similar that the aircraft are practically indistinguishable. The choice will come down to the other issues.
    Sep 18, 2014. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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