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KDI

KDI
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  • 5 Reasons Why We're Nowhere Near A Nasdaq Crash [View article]
    Very amusing . . .

    Headlines from a Mathematically Literate World
    http://bit.ly/1irTTvX

    QUOTES . . .
    Our World: Economist: “Eliminate Minimum Wage to Create Jobs, Improve Economy”

    Mathematically Literate World: Economist: “Eliminate Minimum Wage, then Pray Our Model Has Some Empirical Basis in Reality”


    . . .
    Our World: Still No Broad Agreement on Global Warming

    Mathematically Literate World: Still 90% Agreement on Global Warming


    . . .
    Our World: Average Football Player Earns $3 Million, Lasts 4 Years in NFL

    Mathematically Literate World: Average Football Player Earns $0 Million, Lasts 4 Years in High School


    . . .
    Our World: Market Rebounds after Assurances from Fed Chair

    Mathematically Literate World: Market Rebounds without Clear Causal Explanation
    Mar 10, 2014. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity About Employment? [View article]
    Oil and GDP
    http://bit.ly/1fzZgeN
    Steven Kopits, Managing Director, Douglas-Westwood ; Tuesday, February 11, 2014

    Some of my Notes . . .

    Types of Forecasting:
    • Demand Driven Forecasting: GDP growth -> Oil Demand -> Oil Supply + Residual
    • Supply Driven Forecasting: Oil Supply is less than Oil demand growth -> GDP growth as f(Oil Supply + efficiency gains)
    Currently using Demand Driven Forecasting. BP's Energy Outlook 2013 -> Increase spare capacity by taking some production offline. Assumptions:
    • Oil demand is weak
    • OPEC is central with leverage
    • Oil prices are balanced and fragile

    With Supply Driven Forecasting, a drop in total of oil supply plus efficiency gains will reduce GDP. If observed demand is less than inherent demand then conditions are bereft of oil constraints favoring Demand Driven Forecasting.

    OPEC crude and NonGL liquids production is unchanged since 2005. Worlds total production growth of 5.8 mbpd since then is entirely leveraged by US extremely expensive unconventional liquids (shale oil + NonGL) growth of 5.1 mbpd and Canadian tar sands growth of 1.2 mbpd. These are extremely expensive in terms of very high cost and severe environmental degradation. 2005 was PO !!

    OPEC crude today is 1.8 mbpd less than 2005, but offset by 1.7 mbpd growth in NonGL's which are extremely expensive in terms of cost and environmental degradation.

    Oil Price forecasts:
    • Futures curve
    • Operators forecast
    • Investment Banking Brent forecast
    • DW Brent forecast
    Improved inherent supply growth has not increased the price! Refiners are failing in Europe due to declining demand for oil.
    Miles driven peaked in 2005, not 2007 ==> lost mobility and growth
    Young people don't want to drive? Only 19% of People without drivers licenses aged 18-39 are employed ==> driving and employment are related!

    Capex has soared 11% per year while production has faltered for Exxon, Shell, Chevron, BP, etc . . . OM Profitability is down 10-20 % !! Consumer resistance to price indicates OM Demand Driven Forecasting should be abandoned and replaced with more conditions appropriate Supply Driven Forecasting!! Based on historical precedent, anticipated growth would be 2.7% per year, not 0.8%.
    Canceled projects in 2013:
    • Rosebank
    • Castberg
    • Mad Dog 2
    • Hadrian
    ==> Capex compression beginning to hit home.

    Nearly half of oil industry needs more than $120/bbl. The OM's in the 4th quartile need $130/bbl. Shell had to borrow to pay their dividends - NG!! And for 2014, Shell has backed off doing anything in Alaska. Shell has already announced major divestment program. Look for more OM's to announce major divestment programs to pay dividends.
    $4 trillion spent on finding and getting oil since 2005. More than GDP of Germany! EROI has dramatically shrunk!! Since 2005, $2.5 trillion has been allocated to what amounts to OM bailouts to prop up declining supply. However, supply growth appears good only because China has shown decreasing demand since beginning of 2013 and is out of the market and not moving the price of oil. The US has taken what was expected to go to China but at a much lower but temporary residual price. Furthermore, this temporary improved residual supply growth did not increase the price! Refiners are failing in Europe due to declining demand for oil.
    Unraveling of OM’s is indicated because the bailouts only provided temporary supply relief! Conclusion: Short on oil, and economy is adversely affected. China will likely return to the oil market and affect the price of oil in a big way. China appears on course to re-enter the oil market and add 50-60 mbpd consumption by 2020 and likely would be in a position to bid out OECD's oil consumption.
    Mar 2, 2014. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Fed Decision: Three Things Investors Need To Know [View article]
    BIS: Worldwide credit excess ‘worse’ than pre-Global Financial Crisis
    "The Swiss-based ‘bank of central banks’ says a hunt for yield is luring investors en masse into high-risk instruments, “a phenomenon reminiscent of exuberance prior to the global financial crisis”."

    http://bit.ly/14q6P0V
    Sep 20, 2013. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Fed Decision: Three Things Investors Need To Know [View article]
    "The Bank for International Settlements, the most powerful bank in the entire world, has just announced ‘the crash’ according to this story below translated below from Germany. Is this why the US Federal Reserve has just decided on QE infinity? We appear to have reached a new era in the collapse of the US economy and our country, they aren’t even going to try to hide nor stop this any more. The crash has been announced by BIS."

    http://bit.ly/1a9LTvJ
    Sep 20, 2013. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Fed Decision: Three Things Investors Need To Know [View article]
    GS also peddled CDO scams to a few cities (like Detroit!) by bribing a couple of corruptible serpentcrats, and then siphoning off the tax receipts by buying put options on the resulting marketable securities. The Business Insider article referenced by TruffelPig represents GS as pumping the S&P 500 that has been artificially inflated. So, once they attract enough investors who still trust them, what's to stop them from pulling the plug on the S&P 500 and again siphoning money from them on the down swing? After all, GS for years has consistently done this kind of gods work.
    Sep 19, 2013. 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Fed Decision: Three Things Investors Need To Know [View article]
    No shocker at all. Seemed obvious that if they tapered, bond rates would rise, which kills housing (and the government being able to 'pay' it's debts, haha). They've built themselves a perfect catch-22 - stop printing money and TSHTF, keep printing and it delays it but makes the eventual SHTF even worse later. Plus, he's leaving end of the year anyways. So why would you make a decision now when you can leave it for the next person?

    So as expected - no taper. 85 billion carries on appearing out of thin air every month, stock market inflates - titanic bubble becoming even more titanic. I wonder what it will take to burst it? Should be interesting to see what happens next - although I am past caring and now just preparing to help my family and local community.
    Sep 19, 2013. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • (Fiscal) Cliff Notes [View article]
    Taxes (and revenues in general) is the EASY side, the matter of spending is MUCH harder to solve. Making it out to be strictly about the top tax rate is a major error.
    Dec 13, 2012. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Something New From The Fed? [View article]
    If the Euro Zone does experiences a recovery of sorts, then that could trigger perhaps small to moderate inflation. And presto! The gilt market bubble bursts with that little pin prick because that market absolutely requires artificially low interest rates right now teetering on the edge of the abyss the way it is. This could easily bankrupt London. And, if so, wouldn't that drag the US right down with it? I know you don't like to factory in anything political in your predictions, but it is politics that have protected the massive frauds of our time like LIBOR, and our own massive commercial frauds perpetrated under the likes of Dimon at Chase and the robo-signing crimes perpetrated by BAC. If they involved amounts small compared to a countries ability to produce, then the frauds could be discounted. But they're huge.
    Dec 10, 2012. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Gold Investment Hurts The Economy And Becomes A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy [View article]
    Article has some merit if one assumes that everyone's a hoarder whose actions hurt any economy. Celest's horrific loss due to the collapse of MF Global should be indication enough that gold is a risky business these days. That being said, owning some physical gold and silver is not a bad hedge against currency collapse. PM's have never dropped to zero ever in history while there has never been a fiat currency like ours that has survived indefinitely. Add usurious to that description of our currency. Don't be fooled by the Bernak's fait concern over our welfare. Every one of those $40 billion per month QE in 2013 comes with an interest charge to the US government that someone's on the hook for. Not you or I, but our progeny for generations to come. I guess that makes it OK then?
    Oct 8, 2012. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exactly How Much Can We Expect From Stocks On QE3? [View article]
    This should prove once and for all that the FED has absolutely no idea how to deal with the impending financial collapse and that it could care less about the economy in general. They only care about their own. So, they decide to do an open-ended TARP since the last TARP bailed out their bankster syndicate cronies so well. Only this time they call it QE3. It doesn't matter that QE1 NEVER ENDED. But, the name change is sure to fool us. And they need to do that because clarity is their enemy. And, they can't have any of that. Someone might get suspicious that they're simply handing billions in usurious money over to a bunch of reptile-brained bankster syndicate villains that are too big for jail. Don't worry. The Proels will pay the usury fee on those pixel generated billions. Keep in mind folks that our bankster-run government will turn on you in a heartbeat if they feel threatened. And boy they must feel threatened. I'm beginning to feel like the bait at an impending shark feeding frenzy.
    Sep 16, 2012. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exactly How Much Can We Expect From Stocks On QE3? [View article]
    This should prove once and for all that the FED is completely clueless as to what to do and also could care less about the economy. So, they say lets do TARP all over again since that worked so well. But this time let's call it QE3. Yep. That should fool them. Clearly they just want to protect their cronies in the banking syndicate. Giving those reptile-brained villians multiple billions on a repeating basis. They ought to call this TARPx12. But, then again clarity works against the banksters running this horror show, doesn't it? Keep in mind that this bankster run government will turn on you in a heartbeat if they feel threatened. And boy they must feel threatened to pull this huge bailout stunt. Kind of makes me feel like the bait at a shark feeding frenzy.
    Sep 16, 2012. 05:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Detector: U.S. Stocks Still The Place To Be For Global Investors [View article]
    So, what happens to US stocks on January 1st when the new Health Care Taxes kick in along with the elimination of the Bush Tax Cuts? Furthermore, what happens to them when the public finds out that the violence in the ME has absolutely nothing to do with a movie, and more to do with being bombed incessantly for their resources? And, what happens to them when no agreement is reached on what to do about the national debt and the US looses it's AAA credit rating?
    Sep 13, 2012. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare Now For The Looming Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Yep. And besides, O's only warmed up to target assassinations. mittens on the other hand has made millions through his involvement with Honduran crime families during their coffee war. Roughly 35,000 people lost their lives to School of the Americas trained torturers and assassins in that genocide while mittens started up Bain Capital with fresh funds looted by these crime families looking for safe havens for their ill gotten gains. That's why I'm expecting a big landslide win for mittens and randroid. The elite fascists in this country know a kindred spirit when they see one. POTUS O just didn't think big enough.
    Sep 6, 2012. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On QE3: Buy Oil And Gas, Sell Obama Re-election Odds [View article]
    A very Republican arguing technique. To afraid to think about the obvious, so dismiss it with labeling and name calling. After all, conservatives will like it when it's all just about looks and presentation with truth be hanged, right? With laser sharp psychoanalytical insights like this deciding elections, who needs democracy? Prediction: war and mittens and randroid by a landslide.
    Sep 2, 2012. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On QE3: Buy Oil And Gas, Sell Obama Re-election Odds [View article]
    Of course price of oil will rise. But, not until after the war with Iran. I know it seem prudent to ignore geo-politics when thinking about pure investing. But, investing not so pure any more. Like it or not, it appears that Iran is on the geo-politcal war machines menu. Just like Iraq and Afghanistan were. And, let's face it. war is the most profitable financial mechanism ever invented in the world. The House of Saud is already participating in the war effort by flooding the market with oil keeping the price down while starving Iran of needed funds. Mittens has already been over there conducting foreign policy like he's already been elected. Ignore the gaffs and political buffoonery. They were a convenient cover for what he was really doing and that was orchestrating the timing of a surprise attack on Iran with his fascist and Zionist allies designed to give him a coveted landslide victory in November. After, the House of Saud can relax. That's when oil will rise. Furthermore, one or both of those glow in the dark relics from the cold war will be sacrificed in order to provide political justification to bring the US into the war. It would cost many many billions to de-commission the Enterprise and the the Abraham Lincoln nuclear powered carriers. It would be much more cost effective to leave them radiating the cradle of human civilization for the next thousand years, right?
    Sep 1, 2012. 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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