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Mike from Canmore

Mike from Canmore
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  • AbbVie: Sliding Safely Instead Of Falling Off The Patent Cliff [View article]
    Just to clarify, as this portion of sentence seems to be missing a word or two: "...after completion AbbVie will $50 million and take over the development program beyond Phase 2."

    I think should read: "after completion AbbVie will PAY GALAPAGOS $50 million and take over the development program beyond Phase 2."
    May 25 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Cash Balances Approaching $150B [View article]
    With regards to this cash and cash equivalents, are they held in U.S. accounts or someplace with a lower corporate tax rate ? Could that impact how any dividend to shareholders could be paid - in terms of where the majority of shareholders are and the tax implications for AAPL in liquidating these securities ?
    Apr 26 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Before You Sell Your Blue-Chip Dividend Stock ... [View article]
    One other option, following the train of thought of this article, is to dollar cost average over a longer period - 9 to 12 months buying several times over that period. The market may correct, or it could just move sideways. If using a discount brokerage, the brokerage fees are in the $6-$10 range per trade - a small cost to DCA and how often do we have a lunch out or a coffee and donut and spend $6-$10 and not consider "the rate of return" ?
    Apr 15 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Counterfeit Rally? [View article]
    I think ndras raises a good point: a market rally can also end in an extended consolidation period/moving sideways while earnings catch up to prices. A correction would also present some good buying opportunities, so taking some profits shortly to have cash available to buy quality companies at bargain prices in the next 6 months is likely a good idea.

    Between the BOJ and the Fed, you have to keep in mind the old expression: "don't fight the fed" though. So far their quantitative easing has been greatly stimulating the stock market/savers but seems to be doing little to stimulate their economies.

    Although it's early to make conclusions as to the BOJ's effectiveness, they also do NOT have demographics on their side. In about 9 months 1/4 Japanese will be >65 years old, 6 years later it'll be closer to 1/3 - times of life when people are hanging onto savings, not going out and establishing themselves as young adults: buying homes, filling their homes with stuff, having children, buying the children stuff...
    Apr 10 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tactical ETF Review: 11.26.2012 [View article]
    With regards to Adaptive Allocation, is that based on selling all holdings at the beginning of every month and buying two of the 13 ETFs (including TLT) based on the prior month's performance ?

    On a separate note what %age commission did you assume when calculating the rate of return, and how many days were allowed for the sale to clear in order to have cash to buy.
    Nov 28 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 ETFs For A 2nd Obama Term, 2 For A Romney Presidency [View article]
    You state Romney's position that Obama's policies are responsible for high gas prices. As a financial analyst, however, should you not be analyzing the veracity of that position ?

    The Northeastern U.S. has 20% less refining capacity now then it did 2 years ago, little of the remaining Northeast refining capacity use higher sulfur coal as a feedstock and the pipeline infrastructure to pump low sulfur coal from the the gulf to the Northeast refineries does not exist. Resulting in a reliance on some of the most expensive imported sweet crude there is. Enforcing the pre-existing regulatory standards is A factor, but not the only factor.
    Sep 28 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears like to point to the unsustainable level of corporate profits in a slow-GDP economy, but the S&P 500 - trading at just 14.7X earnings vs. a long-run average of 16.6 - may have priced this in, writes Scott Grannis. If the economy stays slow - but avoids recession - stocks should do just okay, but if we get a pickup in growth, look out for far higher prices. [View news story]
    Do these quantitative easing (QE) measures ACTUALLY put money into the economy though ? The theory is that this should be leading to "looser" lending practices by the banks to regular consumers and small businesses - lower %age money down, lower requirement for assets to secure the loan, lower interest rates charged to consumers, etc.

    Is there evidence that is actually what has occurred with each round of QE or not ? I am genuinely asking that question, if anyone can provide some quantitative data on the matter I'd appreciate it.
    Sep 28 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can Find Total Return With CAD [View article]
    I'm not sure how much further the USD will continue vs CAD. In particular because >60% of Canada's exports is still to the U.S., although that %age has decreased considerably in the last 10 years. In short, the health of the Canadian economy and the strength of the CAD is still fairly dependent on the strength of the US economy.

    The attached link is a good read to add some perspective to this article.

    http://natpo.st/Q6dqVH
    Sep 28 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who could have imagined it, but Peter Lynch is out and (fixed income manager) Ford O'Neil in at Fidelity, where investor cash parked in bond and money market funds now exceeds that invested in equities. "Own equities, forget the bond guys, that's for suckers," says a Fidelity research director, describing the attitude in 1999 that is clearly not so anymore. [View news story]
    I suggest everyone thinking of buying stocks, and especially indexed investments, to look at a 20yr or longer graph of the S&P500. This index has only approach the 15,000 mark twice before - and twice before it was followed by a significant correction. It's a tough market for investors (i.e. people interested in investing in companies longterm) but a good time for speculators and profiteers. Especially with the volatility we've seen these last 4 years or so.
    Sep 27 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3: Reluctantly Long The Market [View article]
    Rudester. I like your basic premise.

    If, for example, the Fed were instead to give USD 40 billion/month to the bottom 1/2 of American households by income (about 57,000,000 households below a median household income of around $51,000) that would equal an extra $700/month per household or $8400/year. And if the Fed was open-ended about this and made payments every month until the economy improved I suspect this would indeed stimulate the average consumer spending, improve the consumer debt/income ratio and thus credit ratings.

    One could do some similar math for business in the bottom 1/2 or 1/4 by income, and probably get similar results.

    No need for the Fed to theorize that if they effectively improve the balance sheet of lending institutions they will IN FACT improve lending conditions and volumes. Go direct to the consumer and businesses.
    Sep 14 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Euphoria Continues As We Get Ready To Jump Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Just joined seekingalpha, so getting in a bit late. I'm a Canadian working professionally and in my mid forties. So I suspect I'm looking at things from a different perspective than many others here.

    I'm trying to figure out what the best strategy would have been for a Japanese investor in the early 1990s, in hindsight. Because that's where the U.S. and EU appear to be now.

    When central banks buy Mortgage Backed Securities, what is the evidence that the banks are in fact using it for more consumer loans rather than investing it institutionally ?

    J.Stuber: "At high rates of interest they expect people won't borrow and the inverse is true with low rates." But how is that practically possible when people were already overburdened with debt, and after the debt crisis a significant fraction were recognized to have poor credit scores - some as a result of the debt crisis, some had been there all along.
    Sep 14 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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