tonyb

Yesterday's Rally Is No Silver Bullet

you are not correct sir. we have had many recessions with unemployment at 8 or 10% or so. we have NEVER had tent cities since the great depression. the real number is 15-18% when you add in the millions of unemployed whos benefits have run out and those who are self-employed while seriously underemployed, and those who can only find meager part-time jobs who want full-time jobs. tb.

On Mar 24 08:42 AM Prognostic wrote:

> Here is what you don't understand.
>
> First of all, you have erroneously concluded that such a large %
> of the banks balance sheets contain mortgages that are so seriously
> impaired. This logic is wrong. While we look at the economy and find
> that 9-10% don't have jobs we forget that 90% have jobs. You are
> also living in the past. Improving economic conditions will make
> many of these mortgages viable. The banks will get rid of only the
> worst offenders which %wise is lot lot smaller than your figure.
> This is why there is a rally in the market. People like you will
> stand by and scratch your head and lament and miss the rally and
> later jump in too late and be the bag holder when the rest of us
> collect profits.

Encouraging PPI and Housing Data: Has Spring Sprung?

dear mr. p--from various news sources today i learned that the housing starts increase was composed primarily of some condos and mostly apartments. 1] to me this is bad news: a] if you are young and you can buy a house do you sink the money in now, suspecting a futher 15-20% fall in prices, or rent an apartment, and b] if you are elderly, you do what many elderly parents of my friends have been doing--dump the house now and move into an apartment--no more property taxes, no more repair/maintenance bills, upkeep, etc. 2] it is good that banks can borrow at zero and lend and make a profit, however they still hold toxic assets. it is my understanding that with the massive and currently increasing residential foreclosure problem, the rapidly collapsing commercial real estate situation, and the increasing credit card and auto loan default rates, that the banks toxic assets will deteriorate further. 3] a short while ago consumer spending numbers were reported to have increased by a tiny amount, yet i learned that the bulk of the increase was due to increasing gasoline prices. [also, please read comments above from the architect and developer]. i suspect when almost all major news outlets trumpet all this good news without providing the critical details, coupled with the amazingly [seemingly] coordinated vague statements from the ceo's of BOA, Citi and GM [all within a day or 2 of each other], that one can only conclude nothing has really changed substantially for the better. my personal view of a continued rapid spiral downwards towards a depression will remain intact until solid evidence otherwise is forthcoming. thanks. dr.b.

Will More Problems with Alt-A Loans Get Swept Under the Rug?

but mr. lindmark, they are not falling back on hope, but rather sophistry. tb.

Bernanke Seems Clueless About the Real State of the Economy

yeah, thats right. it will not take too long to borrow and/or print the money, then you shall have your check pronto.


On Mar 01 10:18 AM stockholder wrote:

> I don't understand the gloom here? The stimulus plan was just approved.
> The US post office has not even had a chance to deliver the first
> checks.

Panic Is Back - Soros Says No Sign of a Bottom

buffett's recent stock sales indicate he is selling america. soros is right on target. the fed gov, multiple states, and cites are insolvent. the consumer is debt-ridden and insolvent. 1 in 5 are upside down in their houses. housing has 20% or more to fall and correct. we have millions more foreclosures to deal with over the next few years. the banking system in aggregate is insolvent. commerical real estate markets and credit card markets are defaulting and collapsing. the us economy is built on a house of cards of debt. the world is in a severe synchronized recession. trade is collapsing. spending is and must collapse. the only solutions offered by the gov are to get debt-ridden consumers to spend more by borrowing and going further into debt. the pork 'stimulus' plan will only soften the blow slightly until the money runs out, just as it did in the 30's. the problem is there is no money as it is all being borrowed and printed. and just in today, gov plans to tax businesses and raise taxes to pay for some of this spending--this will be the nails on the coffin. what is about to unfold will be worse than the great depression. hopefully this will lead to the demise of this fed gov. we may then emerge from the rubble better and stronger in the long run.

On Feb 22 05:48 PM wise wrote:

> a great manipulator..listen to warren buffet and a public track record

The Final Market Bubble

we were then a powerful manufacturing creditor nation. today we are the largest debtor nation, with an economy based on a house of cards of debt, 72% consumer driven, with little savings, and the average american houshold with 10K of credit card debt, 1 of 5 mortgages under water, an insolvent banking system, states and municipalities in bankruptcy, and an insolvent fed gov. there are 8,000 baby boomers retiring DAILY, and this growth is exponential. fed revenues are plummetting, so this must also be added to the massive amounts of pork stimulus, and bailout monies spent thus far, and its only the beginning. you also did not have back then the massive unfunded liabilities coming due more so day after day as retirees obtain social security and medicare benefits. there are less than 3 workers supporting these retirees, and as this depression unfolds there will be less. what is happening today is all unsustainable. you cannot raise taxes enough to sustain all of this.

On Feb 09 11:40 AM Bad Dog wrote:

> To those who think that the US is drowning in debt, I have to say
> that WW2 left the US with debts exceeding 120% of GDP. We had just
> paid millions of people to stop what they were doing and start building
> machines that would mostly be destroyed or scrapped at some point.
> We built ships, loaded them with goods, and sent them out into the
> Atlantic or Pacific to be sunk by an enemy submarine. Then we made
> things worse by paying for much of the reconstruction of western
> Europe, and on top of that built the interstate highway system. Surely,
> after all this "wasteful spending" the US was in an even bigger whole
> than it was in 1932? I rest my case.

Dissecting the Faux Stimulus Fiasco

dear mr pundit--you are correct. this pork bill is right out of roosevelt's 1930's playbook. the next step is to bastardize the census. watch for accorn people and local democratic activists to be hired by the census to ''estimate'' [ie, overestimate''] people in rebublican disticts which lean democratic. then they will gerrymander the districts to their benefit. today on the news we heard of the dems plan to give dc a 'congressman' and 2 senators, not because they are a state, but because they are 'in essence a state' in the union. guess what party they will represent. and lastly, look for rumors to be spread in late summer of 2010 before the elections, in republican districts, where local dem activists and accorn people will quietly spread around that stimulus money [yet to be spent] won't get here unless we elect a dem. by then, the depression will be deep, and people will be desperate. stacking the supreme court will follow. the good news is that the plan will fail because of the massive defecits, debt and unfunded liabilities of the us gov. they will collapse under this onerous weight in due time, and good people will see through their sophistry. we have much pain to endure in the interim.

Are Things As Bad as They Seem?

you do not have to accept mr hansen's advice, but you should respect it, and you should respect him as one of alpha alerts most reasoned and respected authors. i have read your comments in other articles. you are a fool, and a fool and his money soon go separate ways.


On Feb 09 09:38 AM ROLEX18 wrote:

> I don't care, I am buying today mini Dow Futures in the last hour
> as all the action will be there, otherwise it is boring day.

Will PIMCO Be Needing a Bailout Soon?

i agree with you sir. where are the editors. don't they screen such rubbish out. in addition this gentleman's mug shot looks like that of a 15 yr old hooligan or gangster.


On Feb 09 05:11 PM Tom Bombadil wrote:

> This is an article? One chart and a few words to the effect of "Treasury
> prices are dropping?" Yeah, we already know, thanks anyway.

Jobless Claims as Percent of Payrolls Aren't as Bad as in Previous Recessions

dear mr. perry--
i thought we were already beyond all this good news spin because we are not counting all disgruntled jobless who are not even looking any more for work, and all disgruntled jobless who have lucked out finding a meager 10 hr a week part-time job so they can eat and live. using counting methods based in reality pre-clinton administration, we have a U6 number of 14%, and other estimates as high as 18% [total unemployed and underemployed]. also recently here in alpha alerts, i've seen the actual graphs of all major severe recessions and the great depression unemployment charts which all exhibit a 'W' pattern, and we only started going off the cliff last fall and are just now on the first leg down of the 'W'. also considering we have a few million more foreclosures to get through over the next 3 years with a 60% re-default rate, a banking system in aggregate with 1.4T in capital and over 2T to perhaps 3.6 or 4 in toxic debts, an exhausted overindebted consumer who can only now save, a near 4 T commercial real estate market beginning to fail, credit card markets beginning to crumble, numerous state and municipalities teetering on bankruptcy, an insolvent fed gov who can only now borrow and print money, unfunded liabilities of the fed gov reaching numbers beyond comprehension, and a worldwide recession with trade falling off a cliff, can you please make a case why we are not going into a depression, and that unemployment is not really so bad, or will not become much much worse.

Exactly How Bad Will It Get?

dear mr. sullivan:
in 1970 and 1980 things were different. we have now:

an insolvent fed gov. its all borrowing and printing money from here

an economy based on a house of cards of debt, 72% consumer driven [the so called burger flipping and paper pushing economy]

an insolvent consumer spending 114% of what they have made for
a decade or more, who will now hunker down and save for years to the tune of 6-8% or hopefully more

massive gov debt and unfunded liabilities greater than all the total wealth of the country

an insolvent banking system with 1.4 T in capital and toxic debt totaling anywhere from 1.8, to 3.6 T, to senator schummers estimate of 4 T.

5-6 million further foreclosures over the next 3-4 years to get through, with a re-default rate of 50-60%, and home prices estimated to fall another 15-20%

bankrupt states and municipalities every where in the country

massive increases in unemployment [real number near 14% if you count the uncounted disgruntled who longer look for work, the U6 government number. unemployement continues to rise and we are only on the first leg down of the 'W' pattern exhibited in all previous severe recessions and the great depression

a collapse in world trade and increasing protectionism.

a massive number of business and personal and corporate bnkrupcies yet to be realized

and you ask are we doomed. we will continue the deleveraging process and fall ever deeper into depression. i agree with the hunker down and be patient advice you have given, and i have done all this and more, however this time the time-course to recovery is going to be a very very long time.

Is a New Cyclical Bull Market on Its Way?

your hope will be vanquished. the term bear market was coined a long long time ago. a bear attacks by first standing on its hind legs and standing tall and upright, towering above you. he advances with arms outstretched high above him. he raises his head, all the while looking down on you with his eyes. he attacks with a rapid and ferocious downstroke of his arm and paw, slashing and tearing to pieces his prey. this was the downward pattern in the great depression where after years the market lost 89%.


On Feb 03 10:36 AM paultaut wrote:

> A good rally is possible at any point and for no good reason, technicals
> are getting better but I've seen this before.
>
> If Jobs are worse than expected and a better stimulus package comes
> sooner than later, it could be as early as next week.
>
> No prediction, just Hope.

The Next American Revolution: Main Street vs. Wall Street

you may be correct. many of our citizens would not know the names of their US senators, but they would know in detail the pattern, material type, and colors of michael jackson's pajamas and sliipers.


On Feb 03 10:36 AM anarchist wrote:

> Seems as every time there is one of these "the end is near" articles
> (and it may be) we get a rash of people talking about the gun toting
> Americans as if they would revolt against the Government. You guys
> think the Government is somehow intimidated by citizens with deer
> rifles and hand guns when half of our taxes are spent giving the
> military the best weapons in the world you REALLY think the Government
> is intimidated?
> I predict there will be little or no civil unrest in the U.S. as
> Americans will never overthrow the Government, hell half of them
> don't even bother to register to vote. Give em a steady diet of reality
> TV, NFL football and a sic-pack and they may grumble about the Government
> and the bank's antics while they flick through the channels-that's
> about it.
> Thanks to 'investfarm' and 'frosty' for well spoken comments above.

The New Economic Reality

your daughters will be just fine in 10-15 yrs. the middle age and elderly who have tried to bankrupt their children by overspending and re-electing incumbents who have destroyed the economy and country, will loose 2/3-3/4 of their retirement, 40% of their home values, and the rest later on will be eaten away by inflation, and their entitlements will be cut because the fed gov is flat broke. they would have gotten away with it all had the gov been fiscally solvent. a good long depression will fix everything for your young children. stay debt-free and be thrifty. [ps. love your articles].

Nationalizing Bank Losses

let it all go down--the politicians will ensure this happens anyway. we are too far gone to stop the freightrain of deleveraging. it will be good in the long run to hit rock bottom over the next couple of years, with continued suffering for a few years thereafter. it is really something, the upper middle-aged folks and the elderly who have bankrupted their own children and grandchildren [by electing rotten corrupt incumbants over and over again and taking all the candie over the years] will end up loosing 2/3 to perhaps 3/4 of their retirement accounts, and the fed gov will be broke and have to cut their benefits too, and i do not think the young will kill themselves working so hard and paying high taxes, fees, gas taxes, etc. they may just work less and have less for the lost decade we are entering, and drive their former slavemasters [and the AARP] into the grave. get debt-free fast and waste not.