mws

Cree: Shining on the LED Lighting Market

Cree Inc. (CREE) closed today --12/01/09 -- at $50.51. Some key stats for CREE are*:

Forward P/E: 35.57
PEG Ratio (5-year expected): 2.14
P/B: 2.88
P/S: 8.32
P/CF: 23.3
Div. Yield: 0%

*Key Statistics provided by Yahoo! Finance and Morningstar.

Cree Inc. is currently a bit too rich for my blood. Morningstar currently lists Cree's share price far in excess of its "Fair Value Estimate" and its "Consider Buying" price.

Still, to be fair, Morningstar has a glowing (pun intended) "Analyst Report" stating that, "... Cree is a technology leader and still has tail winds that should help drive growth..."

I suppose it depends how you perceive the value of the company in relation to its key statistics versus its long-range potential.

Is Crude Oil Headed Lower?

Goldman Sachs (GS), quoted this morning in both the Wall Street Journal and Morningstar, is forecasting that "oil supplies would tighten in the coming months as the global economy rebounds from a severe slowdown... The bank predicted the glut of global oil inventories would dwindle into a deficit over the coming months due to strong Chinese demand for industrial fuels and an anticipated recovery oil consumption from developed economies."

See: online.wsj.com/article...

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

I agree with Pauly B.

The author has made the case that "a great depression" is inevitable. And many respondents seemingly wholeheartedly agree. Now what? What seems to be missing -- should this scenario truly play-out -- are any investment strategies that purport to deal with it (the other half of the equation).

My questions are, "For those who 'sincerely believe' that this scenario is unfolding, how are you strategically positioning your portfolios to prepare for and weather such a cataclysmic economic environment? Are you entirely in gold? Cash? International investments? Or are you currently preparing by embracing completely different strategies?"

Would the author agree to comment regarding what steps he would recommend taking?


On Oct 17 09:32 AM Pauly B wrote:

> You have done a great job laying out your case and not that I dont
> disagree on many points.
>
> Now what is your solution to this mess? Please tell!
>
> Do I start buying up survival food and run to the mountains to live?

Emerging Markets May Have a Way to Run

Thanks for the fine article. I was unaware that the average pension fund allocates such a small portion of its overall portfolio to emerging markets stocks. Nice to know...


On Oct 16 Carl T. Delfeld wrote:
<< ...the average pension fund only allocates an estimated 5 percent of its portfolio to emerging markets, yet they make up 30 percent of the world’s GDP... >>

Infrastructure 2.0 Outlook: Timing Is Everything

Thank you once again for your detailed reply and opinions. Needless to say, any time there is a pending, major shift/event within any industry/sector, it's nice to be able to do as much "homework" as possible before it actually occurs. Your columns help me accomplish that.

Best regards,
mws


On Oct 15 12:39 PM Gregory Ness wrote:

> I think there are at least two approaches. You invest in the service
> providers or htose who sell equipment/solutions to them. For service
> providers its a question of who can deliver "real" cloud services
> (versus the marketing hype). This in itself is a lively discussion
> on tech blogs/Twitter etc. For the suppliers of gear/solutions its
> a matter of who you think will deliver the best solutions (the cloud
> switches/meash/automat... and be designed in by the service providers.
>
>
> It is very messy at this point placing bets on who will win. The
> point of this article was to suggest that a big shift is coming and
> there are a set of milestones that one could follow to help guide
> a strategy. I think that Cisco, Arista (privately held) and VMware
> are hte furthest along to delivering on the promise of I2.0, but
> they certainly don't have it wrapped up. Citrix has been complementing
> their legacy middleware expertise and base with some great acquisitions
> and has IMHO been building a solid ecosystem. Yet I think VMware
> has led when it comes to enterprise go to market. They were the
> first to embrace the power of virtualization security, even during
> the early stage one virtualization deployments; and IMHO they were
> also faster in building relationships with the network equipment/security
> leaders.
>
> That being said, the fruit of those relationships has been long time
> coming. I attribute to the challenges "binding" virtual and physical
> infrastructure and engaging network teams. When that happens (and
> by whom) will be IMHO all that matters.
>
> I'm not making investment advice... but rather offering a perspective
> on tech trends that could be game changers. One cannot rule out
> Microsoft or Amazon either... because of footprint (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> and business model compatability (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
>
>
> All opinion.
>
> Greg

Infrastructure 2.0 Outlook: Timing Is Everything

Mr. Ness,

May I ask what you perceive to be the best way to invest in this "groundbreaking" technology. Are you a proponent of the "Citrix Ready Open Networking Program" and its partners: Ankeena, Apere, Arista, Dell, Fujitsu, HP, Intel, Joyent, Oracle, SoftLayer, Trend Micro and Vyatta?

Thanks in advance for any insights you can give both myself and other readers.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Morningstar published a "Market Update" report this morning that shows 65% of Fund Managers surveyed believe it is unlikely that there will be a double-dip (referring to the global recession). This is a 12% improvement over the same survey conducted a month ago. Furthermore, more respondents think corporate profits will improve in the next year. They also see Eurozone equities as undervalued -- more so today than at any other time since April 2001.

The report also touches upon "European Sentiment," (European investors are now overweight banks for the first time in more than two years) and "Emerging Markets and Currency" (36% claim that emerging markets is the region they would most like to overweight in the next year). It's an easy read since its only a one page report. You can view it at:

news.morningstar.com/a...

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Art Cashin (the head of floor operations at UBS) on the topic of a 10,000+ DOW, stated, "It's nice, it's somewhat joyful, but it's also a reminder that in a buy and hold strategy, we haven't gone anywhere in 10 years."

Mr. Cashin also mentioned that shortly before St. Patrick's Day, he called for a massive rally but never dreamed there would be anything like this and that he "started taking money off the table in July." Mr. Cashin also said, "Everybody's looking for a pullback -- perhaps that why it won't come."

And, sporting a bit of tongue-in-cheek humor, his departing comments were, "It's been painful to even have got out early or not been in it. It's like being at a great party, you're looking at a banquet and you think that the food is tainted. So you're watching everyone having a good time and you're not doing it."

See the interview for yourself at: cnbc.com/id/33315124

Equities Update: Earnings Power

Actually, Art Cashin (the head of floor operations at UBS) on the topic of a 10,000+ DOW, also stated, "It's nice, it's somewhat joyful, but it's also a reminder that in a buy and hold strategy, we haven't gone anywhere in 10 years."

Mr. Cashin also mentioned that shortly before St. Patrick's Day, he called for a massive rally but never dreamed there would be anything like this and that he "started taking money off the table in July." Mr. Cashin also said, "Everybody's looking for a pullback -- perhaps that why it won't come."

And, sporting a bit of tongue-in-cheek humor, his departing comments were, "It's been painful to even have got out early or not been in it. It's like being at a great party, you're looking at a banquet and you think that the food is tainted. So you're watching everyone having a good time and you're not doing it."

See the interview for yourself at: www.cnbc.com/id/33315124

The Top 20 Chinese Value Stocks

Plagiarism is a pretty "heavy duty" accusation... (even after a quick and convenient recantation). Perhaps you should consider leaving such an accusation up to the discretion of the original author himself/herself.


On Oct 14 10:52 AM Ricard wrote:

> Never mind...I recant my comment.

What Rio's Olympic Win Means for Brazil ETFs

Don't overlook the fact that Brazil is also hosting the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Rio will be a very busy place. See:

www.fifa.com/worldcup/...

The 10 Best U.S. Dividend Stocks

Thanks for your article. Bet you sleep well at night owning these very fine companies.

Mayascribe: the author stated that these 10 companies were the results of his "subjective instincts." Nowhere did he say that these companies were a definitive listing...

Why Exxon Should Significantly Increase its Dividend

I absolutely agree with the author that ExxonMobil Corporation, "... has the finances to both buy back shares AND pay a reasonable dividend."

When Will Deflation Turn Into Inflation? (And How Quickly?)

"When Will Deflation Turn Into Inflation? (And How Quickly?)

With all do respect to Kanye West, Ben Bernake, Alan Greenspan, David Letterman, Treasury auctions, Cash4Clunkers, the dreaded, "This time it's different," gifts, thefts, China, Japan, foreign central banks of Asia, Europe, and Latin America, and all else, wasn't the original question, "When Will Deflation Turn Into Inflation? (And How Quickly)?"

If so, and adhering to the K.I.S.S. principle, my guesstimate is "2014." There... I said it (with no expectations of being "right on the money").

Disclaimer: To answer the author's question, I must first buy into the premise that there will be "inflation" (which I do believe) and secondly declare a specific time frame (which I just did). Do I really think I'll be correct? Stay tuned... unless "this time it's different." :)

Fadel Gheit: Oil Prices to Remain Inflated but Don't Pass on Gas

And, on the other side of the argument, see the following:

"Inflation's Coming, Hide Here"
www.forbes.com/forbes/...

"Waxman-Markey Flunks Math"
www.forbes.com/forbes/...

"Buy Into Fossil Fuels"
www.forbes.com/forbes/...

On Oct 10 09:13 AM MSimon wrote:

> With new gas drilling technologies developed in America Europe expects
> to use a lot less Russian gas in the coming years.
>
> What exactly will the Russians have to sell? Oil? Yep. I would not
> be quite so bullish on oil.
>
> What happens when LNG is not so profitable? What will the LNG countries
> have to sell? Oil? Yep.