First Solar Earnings: Eight Points About the Solar Industry [View article]
NE Florida utilities don't generally have a base rate of $0.15/kWh and you 30 year "LEC" is way off unless you are dealing with a 4 kW system that has ALL rebates and tax benefits rolling in. Use of a 20 year model is much more valuable to the average home owner--very few people stay in a home more than 10 years let alone 30...toooooo many unreliable assumptions need to be made to model the cost of electricity over 2 decades out. The author of the article makes some good points but is all over the map.
On Nov 01 09:51 AM Solar Guy wrote:
> Troy, > > You make some excellent points, except your LEC math is inaccurate > on point number 4. > > As a complimentary service, we provide all our customers a 30-year > system life analysis to determine their IRR, Net Present Value, and > Payback Period on their solar systems. Almost all of the solar panel > manufacturers now offer a 25-year warranty and the panels will actually > perform for 30+ years. So the LEC analysis should be based on 30 > years lifetime, not 20 years as you stated. > > Reference your final comment - "Solar's LEC must come down to the > level of other, traditional energy generation sources for it to truly > gain critical mass and the accelerated investment and deployment > that comes with it." On every analysis I've provided to our customers > here in Northwest Florida, the fixed solar rate equivalent cost for > 30 years has been in the $0.03 - $0.08 / kWh range based on the size > of the system versus the local utility provider's grid-based rate > of $0.15 / kWh. In reality, we're already at or below "grid parity". > > > Even if you take away the current subsidies and tax credits for the > unsubsidized, TRUE cost of energy from all energy sources (solar > versus coal, natural gas, and nuclear) in the US, decentralized electricity > generation from solar panels on a rooftop with no associated grid > transmission costs or non-competing, utility company monopoly dependence > is still much less expensive for the next 30 years.
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NE Florida utilities don't generally have a base rate of $0.15/kWh and you 30 year "LEC" is way off unless you are dealing with a 4 kW system that has ALL rebates and tax benefits rolling in. Use of a 20 year model is much more valuable to the average home owner--very few people stay in a home more than 10 years let alone 30...toooooo many unreliable assumptions need to be made to model the cost of electricity over 2 decades out.
Nov 01 10:22 am
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All Comments by Fred W »First Solar Earnings: Eight Points About the Solar Industry [View article]
The author of the article makes some good points but is all over the map.
On Nov 01 09:51 AM Solar Guy wrote:
> Troy,
>
> You make some excellent points, except your LEC math is inaccurate
> on point number 4.
>
> As a complimentary service, we provide all our customers a 30-year
> system life analysis to determine their IRR, Net Present Value, and
> Payback Period on their solar systems. Almost all of the solar panel
> manufacturers now offer a 25-year warranty and the panels will actually
> perform for 30+ years. So the LEC analysis should be based on 30
> years lifetime, not 20 years as you stated.
>
> Reference your final comment - "Solar's LEC must come down to the
> level of other, traditional energy generation sources for it to truly
> gain critical mass and the accelerated investment and deployment
> that comes with it." On every analysis I've provided to our customers
> here in Northwest Florida, the fixed solar rate equivalent cost for
> 30 years has been in the $0.03 - $0.08 / kWh range based on the size
> of the system versus the local utility provider's grid-based rate
> of $0.15 / kWh. In reality, we're already at or below "grid parity".
>
>
> Even if you take away the current subsidies and tax credits for the
> unsubsidized, TRUE cost of energy from all energy sources (solar
> versus coal, natural gas, and nuclear) in the US, decentralized electricity
> generation from solar panels on a rooftop with no associated grid
> transmission costs or non-competing, utility company monopoly dependence
> is still much less expensive for the next 30 years.