Fred W

David Rosenberg: The U.S. Is in a Form of Depression

Sadly, it appears that elected officials are ONLY concerned about 1 thing--getting reelected. The middle class is on its own...there is no bailout coming for those that made rational decisions--the risk takers and bandits are toasting together again.

Canadian Solar: A Hot Stock for an Options Trade

fyi - Canadian solar is "Canadian" in name ONLY. It is a Chinese company with an office in Canada.
AND CSIQ is moving large amounts of product--current margins are very slim but these (generally 3-12 month supply) contracts will only get better looking as manufacturing costs continue to decrease.
Efficiency is impressive for the newest line of modules--especially at the price point.


On Nov 20 09:48 AM ECONOMICS 101 wrote:

> Cosmo Mannella of LIUNA is very keen on Canadian Solar companies
> as a whole.
> He believes the sector will blossom and create new high paying jobs
> for the Canadian market.
> The stock market business of Solar aside let's hope is correct and
> support his vision.
> We all need to get to work!!!

Marc Farber: Gold Will Never Fall Below $1,000 Again

Would you call this a "stone cold lead-pipe lock" of a prediction?
Just watch a few "shows" on sports betting...generally on Sat/Sun mornings...same type of "analysis" being presented by Marc.
Generally called a sales pitch, some would call it a snow job.

SunPower: Accounting Mistakes Could Lead to Financial Restatement

You make good points...BUT this type of accounting may have spread throughout its competing manufacturing centers.
Just look at Conergy...installed over 10% of the world's PV and they are a legal judgment away from bankruptcy--all stemming from a bad contract signed with MEMC in 2007.
SPWR is has holes in its game and those holes are becoming all too obvious.


On Nov 19 09:53 AM Road Runner wrote:

> Another thing. You make it sound like this accounting issue is a
> permanent thing - like SunPower is headed the way of AOL. At worse,
> this could turn out to be the tip of the iceberg for other accounting
> issues that could mean that SunPower is a much less profitable company
> than they led us to believe. Even in this worst case scenario, SunPower
> will still be one of the powerhouse solar companies. They will still
> have the best product on the market with a well established, strong
> distribution network. They are not going away.

SunPower Clings to March Lows

Run don't walk away from SPWR...it is very possible that the books have been cooked across its competing manufacturing lines. These business practices are often contagious within a company that has competing production centers.
Risk/reward at this point just doesn't favor this entry point.


On Nov 18 01:01 PM robdoc wrote:

> This certainly could be a good entry point for SPWRA...it depends
> upon the magnitude of the errors in accounting.
> What are your thoughts on the overall integrity of the company?

Accounting Irregularities Eclipse SunPower

When you sleep with dogs you get fleas.

SunPower: Accounting Mistakes Could Lead to Financial Restatement

Ever try to do a deal with SunPower in 2007-8??
If you did, and you weren't a Fortune 500, you got the shaft. Generally SunPower is run by opportunists with little regard for ethics--even SPWR's public relations people were openly arrogant at functions--even ones as low key as the 2007 Solar Decathlon.
Beyond this, SPWR made strong arming installers/integrators part of its business model.
You made a lot of enemies while on top SPWR...many us are enjoying your fall.

GE to Close Its Only U.S. Solar Panel Factory

We continue to create a situation where US manufacturing gets killed off...Obama appears to be condoning it--perhaps due to pressure from the Chinese.
We are spiraling down at the same time the market goes up--the bubble is being re-inflated.

America Is Creating Green Energy Jobs...in China

Face it. We are tied to China's success. Creating jobs in China might actually be more important to the U.S. than China--given the corner that we have painted ourselves into. Instability/unemployment in China could trigger the end of China's buying of Treasury Bonds--at least at the absurdly low rates of today.

First Solar Earnings: Eight Points About the Solar Industry

NE Florida utilities don't generally have a base rate of $0.15/kWh and you 30 year "LEC" is way off unless you are dealing with a 4 kW system that has ALL rebates and tax benefits rolling in. Use of a 20 year model is much more valuable to the average home owner--very few people stay in a home more than 10 years let alone 30...toooooo many unreliable assumptions need to be made to model the cost of electricity over 2 decades out.
The author of the article makes some good points but is all over the map.


On Nov 01 09:51 AM Solar Guy wrote:

> Troy,
>
> You make some excellent points, except your LEC math is inaccurate
> on point number 4.
>
> As a complimentary service, we provide all our customers a 30-year
> system life analysis to determine their IRR, Net Present Value, and
> Payback Period on their solar systems. Almost all of the solar panel
> manufacturers now offer a 25-year warranty and the panels will actually
> perform for 30+ years. So the LEC analysis should be based on 30
> years lifetime, not 20 years as you stated.
>
> Reference your final comment - "Solar's LEC must come down to the
> level of other, traditional energy generation sources for it to truly
> gain critical mass and the accelerated investment and deployment
> that comes with it." On every analysis I've provided to our customers
> here in Northwest Florida, the fixed solar rate equivalent cost for
> 30 years has been in the $0.03 - $0.08 / kWh range based on the size
> of the system versus the local utility provider's grid-based rate
> of $0.15 / kWh. In reality, we're already at or below "grid parity".
>
>
> Even if you take away the current subsidies and tax credits for the
> unsubsidized, TRUE cost of energy from all energy sources (solar
> versus coal, natural gas, and nuclear) in the US, decentralized electricity
> generation from solar panels on a rooftop with no associated grid
> transmission costs or non-competing, utility company monopoly dependence
> is still much less expensive for the next 30 years.

It's Going to Get Ugly

You actually have friends?


On Oct 31 12:11 PM anarchist wrote:

> Fitz, I couldn't agree with you more and have been saying the same
> things over and over and lost a few friends because of it. "Homeland
> security" sounds like something Goebbels would have come-up with
> along with the oxymoron "Patriot Act" but of course oxymoron labels
> were the Bush administration's specialty, no child left behind, forest
> preservation act, etc. The Government no longer responds to the
> need of the citizens only to the campaign contributors, the pinnacle
> being reached when Enron virtually wrote Bush's so called "energy
> policy".
> But still the public is not offended by their loss civil rights,
> the breakdown of separation of church (Christian of course) and state,
> being lead down the road of Fascism-I just don't get it. I am sure
> there are plenty here at SA that will set me straight.

Paul Krugman says you need to read today's WSJ editorial "The Dollar Adrift" with an eye to the paper's long-term goldbugism: Focusing on currency stability over domestic recovery is a path to disaster.

You really are an ass.


On Oct 30 07:56 PM anarchist wrote:

> I love it when there is an article by Krugman. All the anti-novel
> laureates come out of their right wing caves to spew their hatred
> for socialist (which is code word for liberals or Obama Democrats)
> and froth at the mouth trying to put down the "ignorant" Princeton
> economic Prof. because they in their infinite wisdom know more than
> he.

California: Entering Inflationary Depression

What does McCain have to do with what Obama is doing today?
Answer = NOTHING
Stick to the topic and leave out the politics if you want to be taken seriously here--otherwise there are plenty of Yahoo message boards out there that would better fit your agenda

On Oct 29 10:47 AM anarchist wrote:

> So what do you think that McCain would have done that would have
> made things better?

Are U.S. Solar Companies Losing Market Share to Their Chinese Competitors?

This is, and will continue to be, part of the Chinese business model.

California: Entering Inflationary Depression

Unfortunately, with Obama at the helm, those that would have stood up will simply assume the "great one" has it covered. Special interest continues to hold the reigns of government.


On Oct 29 07:58 AM Leftfield wrote:

> The place California, and most of the US finds itself is the result
> of decades, at least, of decisionmaking which has departed from real-world,
> private economy producers and strayed to a dismally familiar list
> of rent seekers: Government employees, entitlement recipients, academics,
> professionals who feed off the excess of rules, restrictions and
> laws produced by and for government employment and last but not least,
> the financial sector.
> Influence peddlers all, the lid is lifted to the results of their
> rule in this financial meltdown, and, unbelievably, the insanity
> of their policies has actually been redoubled! Americans willing
> to reject this path of servitude and squalor for ourselves and worse,
> our children and beyond, must awaken soon.