Fred W

Picking Goldman's Brain for Long / Short Strategies

Any info "shared" by GS should be considered mis-information by the time you actually receive it. They are on the other end of the trade "milking" at the same time.
How long can GS continue this? So far nobody in DC seems to care...

Cleantech Industry Nervously Awaits A123 Systems' IPO

Don't chase this one.

Canada: The Industrialized Market for the Coming Decade

The "true" costs of extracting these "reserves" would be staggering to the Canadian wilderness. You seem to be missing the other side of the coin in this piece. Ignoring externalities and growth for growth's sake cannot be "the plan" moving forward, as it can only result in catastrophe in the end. Perhaps we can squeeze another couple of years of prosperity out of the U.S. taxpayer, but the end will be the same.
Quite simply, we are living in a zero sum world--WS has been and continues to lie to you. The U.S. taxpayer has temporarily delayed realization of this FACT with trillions of USDs. The party is coming to an end.

Suntech to SolarWorld: Careful What You Wish For

Any manufacturer that didn't see this coming should be out of business. The Chinese model has been on display for a decade and yet this is a surprising development?!?!... that the fat and happy solar manufacturers didn't bother to plan for in 2005-2008 when margins were huge. Save me now they cry! Enough already and get to the end game in the U.S. market: Set up assembly/lite manufacturing in the U.S. and your products will be "U.S. certified"--Suntech has been discussing this since late 2007 and others will follow. The truly moronic moves are being made by companies like ESLR that are now swimming up stream and moving their value chain over to China--2 year too LATE! Utter incompetence at Evergreen.

SoCal Real Estate Keeps Rising

Bunch of dummies buying now.
Many moons of anguish to go.

Natural Gas Has Spiked 60% Since Labor Day. Why?

OMAN--Are you an astrologer ??? You state you know the timing of such events before they happen. Quite a bold claim:
"My clients are very well prepared to all of this events, because timing is everything and we know the timing of such events before it happens. We don't have any accounts with US bank or other financial institution, all trading is done from solid, secret, offshore jurisdictions and banks. We believe in US exchanges transparency and clrearing firms but we don't trust US based financial institutions."

I feel bad for your "clients".


On Sep 14 10:41 AM OMAN CONNECT wrote:

> 1. DJIA since reaching intraday high of 14198 in October 2007 declined
> to 6443 on March 6, 2009.
> 2. This is the index decline only, many blue chip stocks as you know
> declined 90%.
> 3. To buy stocks you need money, but where to get the money to buy
> stocks when all biggest institutional investors were invested in
> the same stocks ???
> 4. You can't buy more stocks when you are 40-90% down on a year.
>
> 5.Still the market went up, now the question who bought it and how.
>
>
>
> 1.The biggest buyer of stocks since the lows were hedge funds that
> were short till the lowest levels around and based on TA they use,
> started to cover shorts and this is why DJIA today is 9600, not 6000
> and less.
> 2. It's very bad for the market, where only buyers are fat hedge
> fund cats who cover and wait to sell again to make even more money.
>
> 3. Economy can't hold on FED printing money to save the banks and
> hedge funds buying to cover shorts, this makes markets look stable
> to stupid investors, but it doesn't create more jobs and only creates
> instability for the US$, inflation, commodity craze, as investors
> wanna buy only something that sells.
>
> The question for the bears remains:
>
> 1. When biggest hedge funds will start dumping markets again, bringing
> it to new lows.
> 2. What will happen to DJIA and other big cap stocks if Warren Buffett
> will feel bad or get sick
> , at his age it happens suddenly. (Long live Mr. Buffett!!!).
> 3. What will happen to the markets in the event of big terror attack
> on America or Western Europe.
> 4. What will happen in the event of sudden military attack on Iran
> by Israel and US.
>
>
> My clients are very well prepared to all of this events, because
> timing is everything and we know the timing of such events before
> it happens. We don't have any accounts with US bank or other financial
> institution, all trading is done from solid, secret, offshore jurisdictions
> and banks. We believe in US exchanges transparency and clrearing
> firms but we don't trust US based financial institutions.
>
> Charts in Instablog.

Novavax's VLP Technology Is a Game Changer

Your comment made sense until you said "this company is in the same category as early stage startup." Your definition of an early stage startup must be very "interesting"--wonder what you would have clasified Pets.com as back in 2000--a pre-pubescent ink stain on pieces of paper with Delaware C-corp being the only legible marks.


On Sep 08 12:50 PM Value Added wrote:

> NVAX is interesting, but it's quite the gamble. This company is a
> one-horse wonder, and if there are any hiccups in the technology,
> they are in trouble. Plus, the recent run-up in price shows that
> much of the potential for the company has already been priced into
> the stock. Too risky for me - this company is in the same category
> as early stage startup.

The Economics of Shopping Malls

Open vs. closed debate is often decided by the weather conditions/climate of that particular location.
Snow/rain/cold are all painful to the strip owners.

Balance Sheet Wars: U.S. Solar Companies vs. Chinese Government

I know what you are saying and mostly agree, but writing shouldn't hurt the brain to read.
Unless you were writing for yourself or a very select "elite", you missed much of the SA audience.

Lower module prices will drive out the weak hands and pretenders, of which there are many...demand is going to fill the oversupply gap by the end of 2010 as TOU/AMI/prices converge to make solar grid competitive throughout the NE and even more so on the west coast.


On Aug 31 12:56 PM Scott Croly wrote:

> Thank you so much, Mr. Lentz, for bringing to the fore that which
> is truly ailing the real economy: nominal market bank (is a 4 letter
> word at this point in the cycle) obsolescence and inefficiency, as
> in, "The spread was bread; now, the spread is dead." Within reasonable
> context, certain dynamic (as opposed to static caste) applications
> must be made to the real economy in order to rebuild a principal
> leverage fulcrum, which represent true Newtonian advance, encompassing
> principally the first two laws of motion. Regardless of alleged static
> capital advantage as per (+) balance sheet overseas, since the world
> is mostly "banking" (society and defense) on the principal macro-jurisdiction
> (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), as per reasonable balance,
> duty, honor, country, it makes more than enough sense that the US,
> among some other macro-jurisdictions, is the place to be at this
> point for the future; geopolitical caveats abound overseas. Balance
> sheets are nice, but again, more for "bank is good utility tool,
> not policy, as in the last cycle," than for broad corporate markets
> where, "the trend is your friend," as in nobody can predict the future,
> more art than science (context > text). Alternatives seem to be up
> and coming (discrete micro-logic application to macro-sphere: no
> time like the present, GTS, Generation, Transmission, Site). 1991
> beginning recovery, business spending > consumer (though consumer
> discretionary US autos did beautifully during the '90s -- again,
> REAL ECONOMY, as in macro-Newtonian v=d/t real existential advance
> coming out of nominal cycle -- also, note recent 750% runup in F
> since Th, 11/20/2008 intra-day low of 1.01); 2009 government spending
> (slow growth investment return window public/private sector capital
> partnership (macro > micro). More ENRON bang-downs are very unlikely
> at this point (nobody beats Uncle Sam), though other challenges do
> remain.

Suntech Exec Corrects: Not Actually Selling Below Cost

This has been the "business plan" all along.
Why does this surprise anyone?
Are you going to ask to look at STP's "Chinese" books? If STP is dumping there is NO WAY it can be proven w/o STP's help.

First Solar Sell-Off Is Overdone

Actually there ARE environmental conditions that still favor FSLR over Si...mainly ambient temperatures and direct insolation values. They just don't happen to coincide for most sites.


On Aug 26 04:19 PM Wisdom vs. Information wrote:

> disappointed by the continuing flow of articles about FSLR that fail
> to distinguish between the technologies.
>
> thin film is far less efficient (60% generally), so it takes up far
> more space. what you fail to understand is that the BOS (balance
> of system) is quite expensive, esp. on a utility scale installation,
> double esp. in land-short Europe. thin film BOS is far more expensive
> than Si BOS. Si is so cheap right now that there is no financial
> reason to install a larger, less efficient thin film system--dollar
> per dollar, thin film SYSTEMS actually are larger and more complex
> per Watt because of the BOS costs, even though thin film PANELS are
> cheaper. thus, FSLR is lowering prices drastically to compete.<br/>
>
> thin film is incredibly risky, and most likely will wind up marginal
> at best. you will be lucky if FSLR sticks at $90, no higher (valuation
> at current Si wafer proces). if you want to invest in solar, stay
> away from the vertically integrated companies-- specialization almost
> always wins in the end, esp in high tech. LDK, STP. sold STP at 18
> b/c it will be flat for a couple years, still long LDK, short FSLR

Solar Competition Heats Up

FSLR can't win in the long term...CdTe will just cost too much by 2011...Copper mining is changing and less CdTe will be available as a result--at the same time FSLR continues to grow capacity and required supply of these rare elements...FSLR relies on "solar farms" for the majority of its business so you first and last sentences are in opposition.


On Aug 26 09:54 AM jerrydd wrote:

>
> I don't see how First Solar is going to lose as it has the lowest
> cost product.
>
> I do agree competition will be hard and those who can't produce cheaply
> will die. I think thin film will win as the market goes to home,
> small business models instead of the solar farm model which has land,
> transmission line costs plus lower income/wt.
>
> Those that rely on solar farms will be in trouble.

Solar Sector Headed for Price War

The price war is already underway...FSLR will not be the "last man standing". Raw Si prices are just too low and going lower while CdTe are not "easily" mined/found.
ECD actually has a product that is well suited for A&E firms to integrate into their designs...small market currently but with LEED 3.0 valuing solar's contribution so highly within the point structure that ECD will have a relevant business line in the near future.

Natural Gas: Was Thursday Capitulation Day?

Capitulation was on Friday for me. After I caught CNBC's hatchet job on UNG just before the bell, I decided to stop swimming against the current.

Global Warming: Investment Implications

It is a simple risk/reward calculation...the "risk" is simply not worth the "reward". Earthquake, suitcase nuke...? Trying to equate one time events that are actually insignificant in the "bigger" scheme of things is worthless to the discussion.
Billions and trillions of taxpayer money...1 trillion equal 1000 billion so making that jump is about a coherent a leap as your earthquake/nuke drivel.


On Aug 20 10:47 AM Swashbuckler wrote:

> We can "what if?" things all day long. " What if" a suitcase nuke
> goes off in LA or Manhatten? Or an earthquake separates CA from the
> USA. Sometimes it is better to wait for legitimate evidence before
> obligating billions or trillions in taxpayer funding.