Fred W

Homebuilders Are Buying Up Lots

Ever heard of going up rather that out? As the sky is "free" and density is what is coming...NOT more sprawl.
You can live in a house, you can't "live on the land"--at least not w/o a tent.


On Aug 20 09:48 AM TripleG wrote:

> Land is always going to be more valuable than housing. Count on
> that being the long term trend for years to come.
>
> The population is growing and there is limited supply of space on
> earth. Go figure.

Suntech Claims New World Record in Silicon Panel Efficiency

AND Suntech will be buying up (some of) US manufacturers and distributors that have the best access to "channels" to market.
I wouldn't be surprised if FSLR steps in to buy Evergreen to diversify its offerings (Si rather than CdTe) and to access project pipelines outside large scale ground mount systems. Also a defensive move to head off STP before FSLR's pile of cash starts to evaporate.
ESLR has been run into the ground by management so a large premium to today's prices is unlikely w/o real bidding competition between the two.


On Aug 19 05:07 PM rooferguy wrote:

> Huh?
>
> Jasper, I think you've got it backwards. Low efficiency thin film
> is a buggy whip; expensive, centralized power stations are buggy
> whips; gasoline-powered cars are buggy whips.
>
> Suntech (and other major solar panel manufacturers) are the horseless
> carriage circa 1900. Suntech is the biggest manufacturer of highly
> efficient crystalline solar panels. They've got scale, stability,
> distribution, OEM relationships and new technology with even higher
> efficiencies. They'll be around and are likely to displace many
> conventional sources of energy for the simple reason that Suntech
> panels are the cheapest way to make electricity where you need it.
>

The Middle Ground with Global Warming

The REAL answer is that we DON'T know the answer. But you must ask yourself, "What is the penalty for being wrong?" On one side of the coin you have the possible downside of dramatically slow economic growth and large shift toward efficiently using of resources.
On the other side of the coin you have the potential for global catastrophe and the beginning of another dark age.
There are no credit default swaps to hedge global warming--no-bail outs possible. If it happens, we are stuck with the carnage.
So, do you feel lucky?
OR are you just planning on dieing before any of the real downside risk shows up?


On Aug 20 06:00 AM Lenzie wrote:

> I thought this was supposed to be an unbiased review of the evidence,
> instead I find the patently absurd suggestion that global sea levels
> have risen. Yes sea levels have risen if you happen to be in a place
> like England which is sinking. But no they have not if you happen
> to be in a place like Scotland which is not. The only decent resume
> of all the evidence I saw, suggested that the best estimate was a
> miniscule rise which was much less than the errors involved. I.e.
> THEY COULD BE SINKING, THEY COULD BE RISING, BUT ONLY SOMEONE WHO
> DIDN'T KNOW WHAT THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT WOULD SAY EITHER WAY FOR
> SURE!

Global Warming: Investment Implications

The REAL answer is that we DON'T know the answer. But you must ask yourself, "What is the penalty for being wrong?" On one side of the coin you have the possible downside of dramatically slow economic growth and large shift toward efficiently using of resources.
On the other side of the coin you have the potential for global catastrophe and the beginning of another dark age.
There are no credit default swaps to hedge global warming--no-bail outs possible. If it happens, we are stuck with the carnage.
So, do you feel lucky?
OR are you just planning on dieing before any of the real downside risk shows up?

The Collapse of the CCX Carbon Emissions Contract

Over allocations killed the first run in Europe as well. Congress can't shoot straight so they will get it wrong one way or another.

German Solar Incentives in Jeopardy?

Countries better put up incentive $ for "locally" produced PV products, rather than exclude foreign brands from being integrated into projects. Pure protectionism through strict exclusion will not go well, but practices similar to MA's grant program that provides "adders" for MA based production of solar components will appear much friendlier from afar.
Let there be no mistake: the U.S. and Europe will be subsidizing Chinese PV manufacturing, but in the long term, Chinese pricing will be "subsidizing" a portion of our utility supply for many years to come. w/o the Chinese pushing prices as hard as they are, U.S. and European manufacturers would still be colluding behind closed doors to control pricing (this was happening a lot during early/mid 2008).

Dan Rastler - We Need Cheap Energy Storage

William,
BCON's "storage" is not the same kind of storage being discussed here...flywheels are used for very short term power issues--frequency regulation, smoothing out voltage sags and others. I believe the article is focusing on storage that could make renewables more dispatchable such that peak demand could be more consistently shaved.
If BCON can get past its near term cash flow issues, good things could be on the horizon for a company located in MA and has political "connectivity" (Markey and Frank)


On Aug 16 10:45 AM William Taylor wrote:

> And, what about (seekingalpha.com/symbo... flywheel
> storage? It is up and running, has virtually no carbon footprint,
> (unlike dirty miniature short life chemical reactors we call batteries),
> a long lifespan, and can be buried underground virtually anywhere
> (unlike capture and other systems like hydro which are very site
> specific and will function quietly and reliably for decades.
>
> And how is it that you do not know this Eric???
>
> I have seen Beacon Power's flywheels up and running and it is very
> impressive. Very! I would certainly list them as one of the strongest
> contenders if not the strongest.

Dan Rastler - We Need Cheap Energy Storage

Please clarify from your article:
According to Rastler, "We need to get below $300 per kilowatt hour installed all in."
Capacity is not measured over time (kWh) as far as "installed all in" would go. kW and kWh are not the same although they have similarities. What is actually meant by 300 kWh installed all in?
If you believe these terms to be interchangeable, please explain.
Thanks.

Real Estate Has Hit Bottom? Not Even Close

The Dumb money is after housing again--greedy fools...should have waited until late 2010 or early 2011.
Buying distressed land holdings (that have certain "attributes") from the "hangers on" is the best way to play this game.
Building and selling homes right now is only for a select few "qualified" people.
--and I am not one of them.

Dark Skies Ahead for Solar Sector

Mr. Shah's comments are about 8 months late...this was clearly coming and his "comments" are merely part of the typical pump/dump trading scheme practiced by ALL analysts at major banks--it is their job to make the bank $. The model is quite simple: Buy it, recommend/upgrade it, sell it, short it, downgrade it--WASH and REPEAT.

Top Solar Investing Hedge Fund List

Most investors in solar manufacturers are going to get smoked. The channel to market/installation is where the $/margins have gone--some channels are significantly better than others...the good ones will be bought as manufacturers continue to "verticalize"...premium prices will be paid.
Most M&A for manufacturers will be at very small premiums--common shareholders will be left with very little as the "premium" will be built into management's compensation only...ESLR being bought by FSLR in the next 6 months--quote me on that (many reasons for this to occur) as it should be part of FSLR's long term plan. A lot of debt at ESLR so buyout should be around $2.55/share-- if my tea leaves are accurate.

fyi-I own about 2000 shares of ESLR (under $1.70)
(0 FSLR shares).

GM to Invest $43M in Chevy Volt Battery Plant

John,
Yes, and the fuzzy math is being pumped by all the major TV networks. GM will continue to bubble along and chase trends with little ability to execute any real changes in a timely manner--inertia is just too powerful. GM would be better served to come out and explain this 230 mpg "claim", but GM won't and they will look like buffoons again.


On Aug 15 09:40 AM John Petersen wrote:

> The Volt is supposed to get 40 miles of electric only range and then
> switch over to an internal combustion engine to generate power and
> keep the battery charged. The best guess I've seen for the ICE is
> 30 mpg although GM claims 50.
>
> The only way to get to a 230 mpg figure for the Volt is to assume
> a daily commute of 46 miles a day for a 5-day work week. That way
> you get 40 miles per day from nightly charging (200 miles) and 6
> miles per day (30 miles) from the internal combustion engine. Put
> it all together and VOILA, 230 MPG, an altogether meaningless number.

6 Ways to Play Clean Energy

I think the author needs to update his knowledge on the actual cost of producing, transmitting and distributing "centralized" generation. Transmission and its maintenance is no small line item in a 20-30 year project pro forma--unlike the case for distributed solar PV. Germany has proven that solar can supply 10-15% of a country's electricity demand w/o high insolation factors and do it quickly...at least when compared to nuclear, and in many cases coal plants as well (waiting for permitting approval).
I build these models for a living and the most important parts (of any well reasoned model) are the variable data inputs that drive the model. Very few people know the appropriate inputs, and most of the ones that do, already work for companies such that the information never goes beyond the best interests of the "employer".
Misinformation is the game for many in the solar industry...and the Web is very little help unless you know exactly where to look.

The ‘Cash for Clunkers’ Program Will Soon Exhaust Itself

James,
Our government will continue to subsidize risk and distribute that risk to the common shareholder/tax payer...Freddie and Fannie model with a little more AIG action thrown in the mix. We continue efforts to rebuild similarly misguided bubbles in order to extricate the U.S. from recession. Ultimately this will end in the "depression" that so many have claimed is now in the rear view window.
Fine logic in some regards unless you consider that the U.S. actually has "the car" in reverse, rather than in 1st gear.


On Aug 13 09:03 AM JAMES CARLINI wrote:

> Will this program become as successful as the sub-prime mortgage
> market? Turning in a car that's paid for may not be a good deal
> when you figure you pick up a car payment, higher insurance premium
> (because it's new) and probably bank interest on the note. Will
> all the buyers be able to sustain a new monthly payment or in 6 -12
> months be in a position to be unable to pay?
>
> READ
> carliniscomments.com/a...

Applied Materials: 'We Are Not a Bank'

AMAT is one step removed from funding solar projects...funding customer equipment purchases and their projects would be a stretch. AMAT needs to stick to supplying the picks and shovels and develop strong customers that can provide financing support for project development...otherwise AMAT is taking on too much risk.