Fred W

The Sweet Smell of Solar Values

FYI- 1 MW of PV from all of the Chinese suppliers you mention will cost you less than $2/W delivered -- if you know what you are doing and have the cash.
Your estimates have these Chinese companies mentioned losing money on supplying large projects.
The "gap" (if there really is one) is being filled by government export subsidies.
Lastly, take a look at Ontario's FIT regulations as they have been rewritten behind closed doors with the aide of Sun Edison and FSLR>> just read how the spec is very beneficial to thin film modules...and the percentages exactly map what Sun Edison has already "prepared". Not surprisingly, the percentages just don't quite make the cut when using a silicon based PV module of ANY kind.

Even the solar game is rigged= GS $ backs Sun Edison--You do the math.

The Sweet Smell of Solar Values

FYI- 1 MW of PV from all of the Chinese suppliers you mention will cost you less than $2/W delivered -- if you know what you are doing and have the cash.
Your estimates have these Chinese companies mentioned losing money on supplying large projects.
The "gap" (if there really is one) is being filled by government export subsidies.
Lastly, take a look at Ontario's FIT regulations as they have been rewritten behind closed doors with the aide of Sun Edison and FSLR>> just read how the spec is very beneficial to thin film modules...and the percentages exactly map what Sun Edison has already "prepared". Not surprisingly, the percentages just don't quite make the cut when using a silicon based PV module of ANY kind.

Even the solar game is rigged= GS $ backs Sun Edison--You do the math.

Interview with Akeena Solar CEO Barry Cinnamon

Yes, the $3.50W installed quote is absurd--unless you are using Chinese labor (in China of course) and sourcing third tier Chinese made modules. For residential/small commercial, $5.75W would even be an aggressive forecast.


On Apr 29 01:03 PM disdaniel wrote:

> I think a number of those price forecasts are reckless (or unsustainable).
> To start with, his numbers don't seem to match up to reality.
> "When installed costs get down to $3.50 in about a year "
>
> No way are costs gonna fall in half by next year.

Interview with Akeena Solar CEO Barry Cinnamon

There is no barrier for another firm to replicate the Andalay AC product--it is simply a Suntech module with grounding builtin and an Enphase micro-inverter attached...Enphase has designed its micro-inverter to be compatible with most solar modules. Simply contract manufacturing does not equate to a "highly differentiated" product.
Akeena needs to manage its overhead and labor costs better or it will not survive.

"our introduction of highly differentiated Andalay AC solar panels to solar installers throughout the U.S. represents a very big growth opportunity"

Solar Stocks Look Ripe

Chris,
SPWR does have the most efficient commercialized product on the market--production costs are simply too high--overhead issues: too many people at SPWR don't add any value, just names w/good looking CVs.
I am surprised that you failed to mention the demise of MMA's solar business--one of the more important solar financing "events" in the last few months...a year ago it was being shopped for well over $100M...sold a couple of weeks ago for less than $20M--JUST the worst case residual value of the equipment at Nellis AFB is worth over $40M.
Lastly, Evergreen was a company with a valuable differentiation point due to its more efficient use of silicon during manufacturing--the value of that advantage has been greatly reduced in proportion to the Si spot price...roughly 1/4 what is was this time last year. EVER management are bumblers that will continue to lose money on each sale with the hopes of "making it up in volume". MA's state level supports for local production are the only things that will keep EVER alive.

The Sun Is Not Also Rising Over Solar Stocks

Actually much of the construction in Dubai has been funded with debt from the very banks that are now under tremendous pressure. The Middle East is not immune. imo-We have only just begun to feel the real pain that is coming...many rocks need to be overturned before the true depth of the situation can be appreciated.
Only the strong solar manufacturers will survive...at this point fslr and spwr are the only ones that I consider to have any real strength. Having a backlog of orders means very little if you can't make a profit on the sale (eslr is a prime example of this ineptitude)

Akeena Solar: America's Next Industrial Giant?

Akeena does not have the "answer" and is not realistically comparable to Cisco. A large pv manufacturer will buy them if they survive long enough and their "new" product proves worthy of the accolades.