Fred W

The Solar Energy Market Has Bottomed

What will residential customers be paying per kWh in 10 years?
Answer: You don't know...and neither does the consumer. (Currently: MA $0.19/kWh and HI rates are over $0.30/kWh)
When you install solar on a house (on a net metered basis) you know how much your next 25 years of solar provided kWhs will cost and you can reasonably predict the percentage of your home's total demand that will have to be bought from the utility (appreciated by those who "budget")
As you seem very needy and ill equipped to deal with opinions that differ from your own----Is my explanation simply enough for you to grasp?


On Dec 04 07:10 AM Davewmart wrote:

> Solar is strictly a play on subsidies.
> Here are the costs now, falls in price notwithstanding - this is
> from a source which advocates solar:
> www.solarbuzz.com/Sola...
>
> At 35 cents/kwh for residential in the bet areas of the US and even
> without taking into account issues like solar intermittency etc this
> is not a business but a Government program.
> Good job the Government has plenty of money!

Canadian Solar: A Hot Stock for an Options Trade

fyi - Canadian solar is "Canadian" in name ONLY. It is a Chinese company with an office in Canada.
AND CSIQ is moving large amounts of product--current margins are very slim but these (generally 3-12 month supply) contracts will only get better looking as manufacturing costs continue to decrease.
Efficiency is impressive for the newest line of modules--especially at the price point.


On Nov 20 09:48 AM ECONOMICS 101 wrote:

> Cosmo Mannella of LIUNA is very keen on Canadian Solar companies
> as a whole.
> He believes the sector will blossom and create new high paying jobs
> for the Canadian market.
> The stock market business of Solar aside let's hope is correct and
> support his vision.
> We all need to get to work!!!

The Sweet Smell of Solar Values

FYI- 1 MW of PV from all of the Chinese suppliers you mention will cost you less than $2/W delivered -- if you know what you are doing and have the cash.
Your estimates have these Chinese companies mentioned losing money on supplying large projects.
The "gap" (if there really is one) is being filled by government export subsidies.
Lastly, take a look at Ontario's FIT regulations as they have been rewritten behind closed doors with the aide of Sun Edison and FSLR>> just read how the spec is very beneficial to thin film modules...and the percentages exactly map what Sun Edison has already "prepared". Not surprisingly, the percentages just don't quite make the cut when using a silicon based PV module of ANY kind.

Even the solar game is rigged= GS $ backs Sun Edison--You do the math.

The Sweet Smell of Solar Values

FYI- 1 MW of PV from all of the Chinese suppliers you mention will cost you less than $2/W delivered -- if you know what you are doing and have the cash.
Your estimates have these Chinese companies mentioned losing money on supplying large projects.
The "gap" (if there really is one) is being filled by government export subsidies.
Lastly, take a look at Ontario's FIT regulations as they have been rewritten behind closed doors with the aide of Sun Edison and FSLR>> just read how the spec is very beneficial to thin film modules...and the percentages exactly map what Sun Edison has already "prepared". Not surprisingly, the percentages just don't quite make the cut when using a silicon based PV module of ANY kind.

Even the solar game is rigged= GS $ backs Sun Edison--You do the math.

Solar Sector Headed for Price War

The price war is already underway...FSLR will not be the "last man standing". Raw Si prices are just too low and going lower while CdTe are not "easily" mined/found.
ECD actually has a product that is well suited for A&E firms to integrate into their designs...small market currently but with LEED 3.0 valuing solar's contribution so highly within the point structure that ECD will have a relevant business line in the near future.

Dark Skies Ahead for Solar Sector

Mr. Shah's comments are about 8 months late...this was clearly coming and his "comments" are merely part of the typical pump/dump trading scheme practiced by ALL analysts at major banks--it is their job to make the bank $. The model is quite simple: Buy it, recommend/upgrade it, sell it, short it, downgrade it--WASH and REPEAT.

Top Solar Investing Hedge Fund List

Most investors in solar manufacturers are going to get smoked. The channel to market/installation is where the $/margins have gone--some channels are significantly better than others...the good ones will be bought as manufacturers continue to "verticalize"...premium prices will be paid.
Most M&A for manufacturers will be at very small premiums--common shareholders will be left with very little as the "premium" will be built into management's compensation only...ESLR being bought by FSLR in the next 6 months--quote me on that (many reasons for this to occur) as it should be part of FSLR's long term plan. A lot of debt at ESLR so buyout should be around $2.55/share-- if my tea leaves are accurate.

fyi-I own about 2000 shares of ESLR (under $1.70)
(0 FSLR shares).

ReneSola's New Business Model Is Designed to Beat Wall Street

Finally, some comments from people that understand what is happening in China's solar industry--the author is excluded from this compliment of course--hasn't a clue other than his internet research.


On Jun 05 09:16 AM jbde wrote:

> Why hold FSLR - they cannot get lower production costs as the wafer
> based PV makers. As companies like LDK are able to produce their
> own poly-si at $30/kg they can thus lower wafer prices to customers
> and greatly expand the market for modules at lower ASPs.
>
> There will be a run on poly-si soon as China subsidies generate real
> business and bookings are made for modules for US project well in
> advance of installation as larger PPA based projects try to lock
> in low module prices.
>
> The expectations of a turn will cause spot prices for poly-si to
> jump - as well as glass and aluminum for frames. China has been
> buying all the commodiites it can during the downturn and stockpiling
> to enjoy low costs as commodity prices jump [as they are starting
> to now].
>
> As module assembly becomes more and more automated, wafer based manufacturers
> will achieve lower and lower costs despite aluminum and glass price
> rises [which will level off at some point].

The Sun Is Shining on Solar Stocks

Yeah, Eric really is ahead of the curve! LOL
Savitz you are playing the game of business as usual for the "analyst"--Same song coming out of the IB analysts too...soooo helpful.


On Jun 02 09:30 AM Alphameister wrote:

> Nice to get a bullish article from Eric after these stocks have tripled
> and quadrupled. I seem to recall a stream of bearish articles when
> the stocks were making their lows.

Top Public Pension Funds Shun Solar Stocks

"Pension" funds should stay clear of speculative investments (this includes almost all solar manufacturers).

Solar Stocks Look Ripe

Chris,
SPWR does have the most efficient commercialized product on the market--production costs are simply too high--overhead issues: too many people at SPWR don't add any value, just names w/good looking CVs.
I am surprised that you failed to mention the demise of MMA's solar business--one of the more important solar financing "events" in the last few months...a year ago it was being shopped for well over $100M...sold a couple of weeks ago for less than $20M--JUST the worst case residual value of the equipment at Nellis AFB is worth over $40M.
Lastly, Evergreen was a company with a valuable differentiation point due to its more efficient use of silicon during manufacturing--the value of that advantage has been greatly reduced in proportion to the Si spot price...roughly 1/4 what is was this time last year. EVER management are bumblers that will continue to lose money on each sale with the hopes of "making it up in volume". MA's state level supports for local production are the only things that will keep EVER alive.

Solar Companies Squeezed Twice by Economic Crisis

You ask: Why would Chinese solar companies expand into "no market" or at least a situation of oversupply?
The Answer is quite simply: BECAUSE THE COMMUNIST PARTY PAYS THEM TO DO SO...selling at a "loss" is made up by the export incentive paid by the government...this was inevitable and I have written about it extensively over the past 12 months.
The "subsidy" for Chinese based installations is another matter entirely.



On Apr 23 09:16 AM TigerFund wrote:

> This is ridiculous conclusion. It assumed that chinese solar companies
> will expand their productions even there is no market. Why would
> they do that?
>
> What about new incentive from chinese government for solar projects?
>
>
> These new policies will however, change the power structure among
> the solar companies. Silicon's preferred much lower price to spwr
> is over. Chinese solar companies will have access to precious capitals
> now and their stock price will not be easily shorted by Wall Street
> Liars. In the long run, because of their lower price, these companies
> have better chances to dominate the industry.

Five Top Solar Power Stocks

Here are those ROCKS feeling? They were all good throws as your article is riddled with misinformation and unreasoned conclusions.
Author: you are out of your depth and in need of a few years in the industry to figure out your basic missteps.


On Apr 05 08:54 AM Mr Gadget wrote:

> aquaculture: Yes solar is a growth industry. But this article is
> full of misrepresentation, halftruths, contradictions and mistakes.
>
>
> OK, so how about a reasoned responce that points these "problems'
> out for my edification. Not just throwing rocks.

Stimulus Package Stimulates Chinese Solar Sector

Posted Jan 22, 2009:
Not All Solar Stocks Are Created Equal [View article]
The article fails to mention the support that Suntech is/will receive from the Chinese government. Additionally, the pricing of solar modules will continue to decline and BOS and installation labor wil remain 1/5th of the cost of a U.S. based project...this will open up the largest market in the world to PV (China)--the solar thermal installation numbers in China are astounding so the market is there when the price is "right".
The solar industry in China is perceived as a job engine--the ruling party will not abandon its efforts to ensure economic stability for without it, the party's days in power would be numbered--Suntech will benefit and ultimately First Solar will see much greater competition on price.
Jan 22 10:23 am

On Mar 27 09:35 AM Fred W wrote:

> The support for domestic projects was inevitable...I have written
> about this as the ultimate backstop for Chinese manufacturers--US
> producers beware. China is setting it up so its producers will be
> able to sell modules at below production costs but still make "profits"
> on export incentives that ultimately support economic and political
> stability in China.

Stimulus Package Stimulates Chinese Solar Sector

The support for domestic projects was inevitable...I have written about this as the ultimate backstop for Chinese manufacturers--US producers beware. China is setting it up so its producers will be able to sell modules at below production costs but still make "profits" on export incentives that ultimately support economic and political stability in China.