Fred W

Will Solar Stocks Reclaim Their Place in the Sun?

More re-posted SPAM from Mad Hedge...such a "value" to the SA community


On Dec 15 03:11 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> bdc You probably won’t be surprised to hear that I believe that alternative
> energy will be one of the dominant investment themes of the next
> decade. While a good journalist never reveals his sources, I’m happy
> to disclose this one. One of my favorite sources of information to
> mine on this topic is Greentech Media (click here for their website
> at www.greentechmedia.com/ ) which has published their top
> predictions for 2010. Here they are:
>
> 1) Private capital investment into alternative energy soars to a
> new record, filling in the gap that opened up in 2008.
> 2) This will be the year of the “non-carbon” commodity. Every aspect
> of the world economy will be reviewed for its total carbon footprint.
>
> 3) Energy efficiency gains will become more important than solar.
> Dump those incandescent light bulbs!
> 4) The solar industry will scale up from small model facilities to
> large industrial plants.
> 5) IPO’s and takeovers will enter the smart grid space, sucking in
> more capital.
> 6) The industry will give up on biofuel because of its lack of scalability.
> I didn’t want to live near an algae factory anyway.

Stimulus Package Stimulates Chinese Solar Sector

Posted Jan 22, 2009:
Not All Solar Stocks Are Created Equal [View article]
The article fails to mention the support that Suntech is/will receive from the Chinese government. Additionally, the pricing of solar modules will continue to decline and BOS and installation labor wil remain 1/5th of the cost of a U.S. based project...this will open up the largest market in the world to PV (China)--the solar thermal installation numbers in China are astounding so the market is there when the price is "right".
The solar industry in China is perceived as a job engine--the ruling party will not abandon its efforts to ensure economic stability for without it, the party's days in power would be numbered--Suntech will benefit and ultimately First Solar will see much greater competition on price.
Jan 22 10:23 am

On Mar 27 09:35 AM Fred W wrote:

> The support for domestic projects was inevitable...I have written
> about this as the ultimate backstop for Chinese manufacturers--US
> producers beware. China is setting it up so its producers will be
> able to sell modules at below production costs but still make "profits"
> on export incentives that ultimately support economic and political
> stability in China.

Stimulus Package Stimulates Chinese Solar Sector

The support for domestic projects was inevitable...I have written about this as the ultimate backstop for Chinese manufacturers--US producers beware. China is setting it up so its producers will be able to sell modules at below production costs but still make "profits" on export incentives that ultimately support economic and political stability in China.

Four Reasons to Expect a Solar Boom

This is truly a misleading piece and the author should at least attempt to understand the solar industry before writing about it.
If you can't get a construction loan, very few solar projects will get built...as is currently the case. The fact that the U.S. commercial market is driven almost exclusively by tax benefits is a big problem...no profits = no tax liability = no ability to monetize ITC and MACRS.

The Sun Is Not Also Rising Over Solar Stocks

Actually much of the construction in Dubai has been funded with debt from the very banks that are now under tremendous pressure. The Middle East is not immune. imo-We have only just begun to feel the real pain that is coming...many rocks need to be overturned before the true depth of the situation can be appreciated.
Only the strong solar manufacturers will survive...at this point fslr and spwr are the only ones that I consider to have any real strength. Having a backlog of orders means very little if you can't make a profit on the sale (eslr is a prime example of this ineptitude)

Solar Power May Not be Quite so 'Green'

China does this with virtually every industry.
Buy Suntech on weakness...it will be squeezing the market very soon with price cuts.