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surfgeezer

surfgeezer
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  • In Search Of Income: High-Yield Bond CEFs (Part I) [View article]
    Long FPF also. I consider lack of track record a good thing overall ( keeps yield up). The record they do have is very good. Also long HPI in the Preferred space.
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Search Of Income: High-Yield Bond CEFs (Part I) [View article]
    Discount emphasis is only good for traders. NAV is also just a price metric.

    Three major things are part of my Due D. 1- Distribs since inception, and PHT has NEVER cut a div, since inception in 2002 and 2- positive UNII, again PHT positive with a couple months distrib in the bank. 3- NAV performance.

    Could not care less what the fees are, if the performance is there and No div cut is extraordinary for this sector.

    Just saying, especially with Bond funds, negative UNII is a precursor to a div cut and should NOT be ignored. Strongly suggest it be included as a reason to avoid, especially if you do not plan on poping in and out on price peaks and valleys, but a div cut will decimate price. I don't.

    Long several Muni funds also.
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conclusion To 1-Year Test: $10K CD Wins Vs. $10K Portfolio [View article]
    Or invest for flow and stop worrying about unreal price movements. As a flow/Income based investor I have to wonder if the trader, you freely admit, has clouded the way you try to meld Income with trading. Shows in you have no yields posted. Sure I could do the math, but not even mentioning yield tells of the intent- trading. Silly to compare to a CD with zero price change possible and horrible yield.

    I only know two of the companies PSEC and AT. Neither are covering the div, well PSEC is now with div cut and I am fine with still being long- BECAUSE I ignore unreal price crap and invest for flow and PSEC's flow is fine, just being pressured by lower rates on new loans.
    AT I sold with the huge div cut a couple years ago when they lost a big contract to utility in Florida, if memory serves. People that know my comments know I do not sell easily. They are surplus energy traders. Tough biz now days, get used to losing money there.

    My point being comparing your trading performance is not the same as the Income performance and apparently not much due is done on the sustainability of the div, so it is pretty much straight price picking. Agree, very tough.


    We absolutely agree having a hard date to withdraw funds/sell is extraordinarily hard for traders. Price does what it does- change. WHY I make sure I have enough Income I do not need to sell.

    That said Divs with due are easier to predict, not foolproof as I was surprised by PSEC and SDRL, but my received Income is up 15.91% YTD ( yes PSEC and SDRL cuts are not shown there ) and my projected is only up 3.43% but I am still putting SDRL's Capital to work and that will go up. That's in my taxable. Total Portfolio projected is up 15.89% ( little SDRL there-LOL ). Unreal price crap is just that, unless you are a trader.

    Just another point of view.

    Trading is by definition trying to outguess the herd. Another tough biz. Good luck with that.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Data Metrics For Refinery MLPs: 2014 Q4 Matches Pace Of Q3. Value Abounds! [View article]
    His main thesis was the recent fracking fluid acquisitions are not going to work well and be a reason to cut distrib in coming quarters and then price would could there.

    While I agree fracking service will be hit and those two acquisitions were very bad timing, I commented the other many growth projects ( new refinery coming on line for one ) and the crack spread for their specialty refined products ( think waxes, consumer and industrial inputs) would be far better with low input costs as they are stickier than retail gas prices.

    I also mentioned CLMT had just raised distrib to get into top IDR ( probably stretching to do so IMO ) and it was far better for the GP to just take a little less IDR and maintain MLP share distrib and price. The GP owns a huge chunk of MLP shares anyway.

    Agree Tim, upstream is not what investors should be selling with cheap oil.


    Panic is opportunity.

    Long and have Puts to add on CLMT, NTI.
    Liking NTI for location, and they have lots of retail stations, so capture the spread/margin all the way down till it hits the consumers tank. Would add the TTM distrib is relatively low because they did a turnaround that will not have to be repeated for years. They look locked and loaded for profit to me.
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Double-Digit Distribution Portfolio [View article]
    V- How did you get your Capital? Was it not a % of Income once?
    Just saying always an individual choice on % of Income to invest, no matter the source.
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Outlook - Same Song, Slightly Different Arrangement [View article]
    Well that is actually my point. I don't do that-trade. I acquire more cash flow by using cash flow, not price change to generate cash flow. I monitor prices for buying-not selling. My basic belief on a companies ability to no longer pay my "rent" is about the only reason I sell, mostly because I buy when cash flow/yield is high and I believe the market is more worried about future price change than actual cash generated from the company.

    My goals have never really been to be wealthy, it is not something I chase. I do like being retired early ( from having a boss anyway ), because I have always chased passive Income. Initially from rents and now with stocks, it is still landlord model of not planning to sell my buildings, but rather making sure my tenants pay me well. Never been a flipper in RE and hated stocks because of the flipper mentality, until I applied my leveraged cash flow RE model and said forget what the herd thinks of my Income generators after I buy.

    Not what Wall St preaches, but it has been very effective for my goals.
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP And Anchor Drilling Fluids, The Acquisition That Will Drag Earnings Lower [View article]
    My understanding, just memory here, was the last Distrib raise just put them into the 50% IDR's. So a Distrib cut would GREATLY effect the GP because they own so much of the MLP and the GP. Just saying I agree the GP is more likely to selectively cut the IDR's than the Distrib. IMO and I most certainly am not part of this basically family run biz. The last thing they need is a big bump in cost of Capital that would come from price cratering on a distrib cut.

    But really liked the article and very much glad you dug into these new acquisitions as I agree it was bad timing. Still very comfortable long, but agree it could be tough for drilling service companies for quite a while..
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Patient" replaces "considerable time" in FOMC statement [View news story]
    "is simply untrue"- I assume you are talking personal impressions, because the data does not agree.
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Patient" replaces "considerable time" in FOMC statement [View news story]
    and right here is the problem- "After reading the short press release, it is clear rates are going up in the mid- second half of 2015, as expected."

    A- no, whoever's opinion you got masking as news was spinning. Suggest you search youtube and watch the speech and questions, about an hour well spent IMO, precisely because others opinions are a terrible way to make investment decisions- IMO-haha.

    She was actually very clear. There is NO reason now, and she will NOT go out further than a "couple" of meetings at guessing on what/when will happen. THAT's middle of next year.


    The backward looking data they had did NOT have the effects of the oil slide and she simply would look at the data then and decide. No inflation = NO raise, for as long as it takes. That simple and exactly the same for years now. Yes they "want" the data to show good jobs and slight 2% inflation from an expanding GDP, but they move on data, not wants.

    Of course price traders need fear/greed to drive price change, so news spinners ALWAYS pushes one of those two buttons to get prices to be volatile. Nothing new. But if you watch the video, you may want re evaluate where you get your spin from. Just saying.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Patient" replaces "considerable time" in FOMC statement [View news story]
    Well that is a problem with general statistics isn't it. The recession was an anomaly of depth, no where near average, so why would it fit in average statistics?
    Why backwards, rear view mirrors, are so terrible at trying to figure out the future.

    The Fed can only control certain things. QE is still possible, but lets be clear that is NOT printing money, it is US buying it's own debt to keep dollar low and help jobs and keep the Interest payments here.


    The politicians control how much debt they have to buy as well as how the debt is spent. The true problem IMO, is not what the Fed will do. We already know- the same thing they always do.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Patient" replaces "considerable time" in FOMC statement [View news story]
    They did. It was because QE ended and there was no huge "blow up" the Fed bashers had been screaming about to scare everyone.


    So they thought they should use different language to differentiate the after QE period where we still do not have any of the crap the Fed haters have been spewing for years happening.


    Still data driven, but basically shifted to more focus on inflation.
    Dec 18, 2014. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Patient" replaces "considerable time" in FOMC statement [View news story]
    They are simply repeating it will be data driven and we have ZERO reason now to hike. They, like everyone, can only hazard a guess at the future and they, unlike everyone but like Keynes, will adjust as the facts change.


    If you listen carefully it is basically being driven by inflation now. Strong dollar from world fear and GDP growth declines should last for awhile, but low oil will stimulate eventually. We still have massive over capacity for manufacturing and labor. I see little reason for inflation to take off. Please save the comments about how your personal inflation is still high and they "manipulate" the numbers, it matters to no one but you.
    Dec 18, 2014. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Patient" replaces "considerable time" in FOMC statement [View news story]
    LOL. "Bubbles" are about price, there are no Yield spread "bubbles". Because Income/spread investing does not RELY on another fool buying higher method of making money, just like biz that use the low Interest rates to build profit and higher people.


    It is NOT the Fed's job to protect idiots that rush into price bubbles.
    It is the Fed's job to keep the biz climate/interest rates sustaining jobs without inflation. That's working despite the whining from price flippers about the fools rushing in believing another fool will buy higher.
    Dec 18, 2014. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything You Need To Know About The Geopolitics Surrounding Crude Oil [View article]
    No.
    Other countries buy our debt for pricing power on the goods they want to sell here. People in other countries buy our debt for several reasons including safety of our military and a basic bet that our GDP growth will be better than theirs.
    Also the amount in the Reserves does not effect the amount of money in circulation, that is determined by the fractional reserves and lending of the banks. As a point of fact the Fed is crimping the supply of dollars by forcing improved lending qualifying requirements.

    It is called how free trade/Capital flows between countries gets adjusted by currency changes.
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything You Need To Know About The Geopolitics Surrounding Crude Oil [View article]
    BK- disagree. First off, because of the weak Ruble to US $, Russia is in fact getting a lot of Rubles per barrel. Saudi's are fixed to US.

    Main problem is we are Reserve Currency based on two major things. 1- our consumers and we are getting stronger now, the BRIC's are weakening.
    2-the strength and stability of our military and economy. Both are free market based in the FX.

    Yes over a long time frame we will have to share Reserve currency, but not until China's consumers get a lot stronger. Assuming the billionaires that run the party allow them and the currency to truly be market based.
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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