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surfgeezer

surfgeezer
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  • You're Missing The REIT Point: Investor Sentiment Is On Our Side [View article]
    P/FFO is good, but yield is the shorthand ( yes coverage matters div/FFO ). Pretty easy to look at O's historical yield from a lot longer than 5 year period. It does have much better yield points. Best two (10% range ) were in the 09 fear and 2000 tech bubble. Irrational fear and irrational trading, and yes we will probably see those ugly monsters again-but when? Even 2013 afforded 6% yields, so maybe people will get better yield points with a real announcement. But how? holding cash and waiting to get perfect yield? I invest in other things and have my flow going to best value available. Much of my new Puts are going to REIT's, so I agree with Brad.

    IMO, again, an investor needs to know what they want. If it is retirement cash flow, is the current yield and DGR ( well above inflation now and usually historically ) worth it?

    I don't sell Put's on O unless the net price/yield is above 6%, but Brads article was not on O specifically. It was generalized. I am selling Puts on STAG, WPC, OHI and other types of REITs.

    Brad specializes in REIT's and explains the fundamentals well, buy points are always personal. The P/FFO may be better in the future, they certainly have been much worse lately is my take. Again know your goal folks.

    I would not call it cheerleading.
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You're Missing The REIT Point: Investor Sentiment Is On Our Side [View article]
    As usual, a great informed comment from Richjoy- who freely advocates "Total Return" investing ( hopefully I am not putting words in his mouth, just my opinion on his views ). Believe Adam does so also, and in no way am I saying that does not work well-if you are good at it. As Richjoy said however, most people are not.

    All commentators, do so from their viewpoint. Richjoy, NAREIT, politicians, me.

    For me, quoting Brad and putting in ( my two cents as a clarifying nit pick )- "investors should recognize that without volatility there can't be gains realized in the stock market ( for traders only, cash flow investors continue receiving real cash Income ). Furthermore, while the 11.4 percent drop is one of the more dramatic pullbacks on record, it's in-line with the "taper tantrum" in the summer of 2013 when rates increased by more than 90 bps and REITs dropped 13.4 percent over a four month period."

    Over the last two cycles of REIT selloffs savvy investors have capitalized on REIT bargain prices offered by the market. (I know I have)."

    So the reality for investors is again- are you an investor that wants to lock down increasing cash flow for retirement OR and investor that wants more wealth for retirement and thinks trading is a good way to get it?

    VERY DANGEROUS for a long term flow investor to intermix short term price volatility "Total Return" with cash flow investing unless ( like Brad said ) you do the due on your companies ability to generate the flow to pay you.

    Decide THAT question first is THE best thing an investor can do- in my slanted opinion.

    I am adding-again and yes I think Richjoy may be right on better points in the future especially if rates are raised substantially and quickly. But maybe not/probably not IMO. I believe I know what my flow will be doing far more than I am willing to bet on price volatility- That is MY SWAN- know yours people.

    Greatly respect all three of their view points.
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navios Maritime Partners L.P. Reports Financial Results for the Second Quarter and Six Months Ended June 30, 2015 [View article]
    Liked most of it but-"Navios Partners generated an Operating Surplus for the six month period ended June 30, 2015 of $57.1 million, as compared to $98.8 million for the six month period ended June 30, 2014." is a bummer. Big hit to FFO. Looking better for next quarter however and long term charters look stable to me.
    Jul 30, 2015. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends & Income Digest: 3 'Common' Mistakes Dividend Investors Make, Or Do They? [View article]
    "If I were a financial advisor I would be against investing in any high dividend stocks for the retired in current conditions , nine times out of ten they depreciate faster than they pay or people need a good counter balance "value" capital gainer like JBLU or last years RFMD, SWKS run to keep breaking even."

    well yeah-advisers sell "value" is what you need to retire and unreal price change is real.

    Lot's of high yield divvy cutters mentioned, then a price drop and an unreal loss turned into real loss. It may or may not mean the actual payout is cut, and even if cut it may or may not mean a permanent cut. no where near 9 out of ten cut divs, unless you are talking high teens. Some people call high yield over 5%, and I have lots growing payout very well still above that. NTI, MORL are known variable, but highly unlikely to go bankrupt.


    Know your goals. Income and short term value are tough to mix
    Jul 30, 2015. 03:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends & Income Digest: 3 'Common' Mistakes Dividend Investors Make, Or Do They? [View article]
    First China must allow it's currency to be freely traded before that happens. It has refused because it hurts exporters. When it does look for the Yuan to gain in relative value to US $, helping their consumers and supposedly their goal. If you have money in China ( and you basically do if you have investments there ) it will gain with the change in currency values.
    Big ole howevers on that. China is a VERY dangerous to invest IMO and transparency of companies and maturity of stock market are just two on a long list of why I do not.

    For most of the modern history currencies had a "sphere of influence" where the countries directly trading in the area used the big dog. I expect much of that to come back. Really currency power is based on the consumption and how much they import, as exporters want their production $ hedged.
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends & Income Digest: 3 'Common' Mistakes Dividend Investors Make, Or Do They? [View article]
    PM me if/when in LA :)
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Don't Believe Kinder Morgan Will Trade With A 9% Yield [View article]
    Love any article that shows the effects of yield.
    Cash flow rules!
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Don't Believe Kinder Morgan Will Trade With A 9% Yield [View article]
    seriously LNCO? ANYBODY surprised at a cut after oil was cut in half, when they are completely and directly dependent on the price of oil and some short term hedges to protect profit, did not do their due d.
    Upstream NEEDS high oil
    midstream NEEDS flow and use by the economy
    Upstream, like refineries, PROFIT's from low oil
    Jul 30, 2015. 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Don't Believe Kinder Morgan Will Trade With A 9% Yield [View article]
    Depreciation effects earnings negative, amortization effects cash flow and debt ratio's.
    Jul 30, 2015. 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Don't Believe Kinder Morgan Will Trade With A 9% Yield [View article]
    yes, I agree. It is a C corp, but the general model is MLP. P/FFO is correct IMO. They have stated it is a cash flow based biz with a lot of growth debt, so earnings will always be lagging.
    Jul 30, 2015. 01:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams cuts profit forecast but affirms dividend guidance [View news story]
    Hope so Scooter, just as soon not lose MLP status and pay the taxes. Been long WPZ since 9/2010. Much rather be under ETE.
    Jul 30, 2015. 01:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCs At 52-Week Lows Before Q2 2015 Earnings [View article]
    Buzz and I disagree on MCC. They just had the Interest on their loans dropped, should help the yield spread, I think price is overdone. I added last month @8.66$, have some Puts working also.
    Jul 30, 2015. 12:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Genesis Energy's (GEL) CEO Grant Sims on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Interesting, liked what I heard. Glad I added in March @ 42.91, now 3.03% of Taxables Income. Have Sept Puts @ 42.50$ Net 39.61$, 45$ Net 40.62$, and 47.5$ Net 41.92$ we will see. If they miss, have Dec's sitting @ 45$ and 50$. Eventually the market will figure out oil prices do not effect them much. Not sure if they can keep up the 10% DGR but with my YOC now @ 7.01%, I can be ok with less.

    Long EPD also, gotta wonder why they gave up the pipe. Must be gunning for something bigger.
    Jul 30, 2015. 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital's Dividend And NAV Sustainability Analysis (Pre Fiscal Q4 2015 Earnings) - Part 1 [View article]
    Scott, some people get what fundamental analysis means and some just look at graphs and guess herd pricing.

    Those of us that want to understand a biz appreciate the info and thoughts.
    Jul 29, 2015. 02:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital's Dividend And NAV Sustainability Analysis (Pre Fiscal Q4 2015 Earnings) - Part 1 [View article]
    Don't forget special divs usually mean a lower strike adjustmeny of same amount.

    Thanks Scott. :)
    Jul 29, 2015. 02:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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