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surfgeezer

surfgeezer
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  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    V- well I think the least productive was a tax cut during an unneccesary war, but I at least admit it is my personal political view.

    My point would be the definition of "productive" IS highly political, but again the original comment was debt itself was somehow bad or had limits. It is not. Debt has costs, the costs go up as the debt increases. Not all those costs are shown with Interest rates. That is the real limit, not some dollar amount, that BOTH sides of the political spectrum have built up. You seem to like straw men, what exactly would the return on giving money away be? Yeah about the same return as IRAQ and those tax cuts.

    Snoopy-I agree we are getting a very poor return on our debt, I do not blame one party. I also did not see one shred of that in this article, just talk about the size, that again matters FAR less than the return.
    Aug 6 02:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Will Be Swimming Naked When The Tide Goes Out? [View article]
    I consider myself very middle class. I made my money in construction- seldom the boss. I live in the neighborhood I grew up in a house bought from a high school buddies parents decades ago, most my friends are normal working class. It will do them zero good to have higher rates now. Most have little savings to earn interest on!

    Yes the world has changed and it is now very important to understand how the financial side of money works. It really is more a symptom of the many ways the information age has changed our society.

    Adapt or die has been with the world a long time, it is far less controlled by the political class than they would like you to think. Personally, the more I understand, the more I appreciate the thankless job the Fed heads have done.
    Aug 5 10:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Will Be Swimming Naked When The Tide Goes Out? [View article]
    Who cares? flipping really needs to be the desert IMO. Give me the money every quarter or month, then MAYBE I will take reallocation of the Capital for more yield. Certainly not worth the sweat. Just fodder for fear/greed marketing.

    It really is just a sugar buzz.
    Aug 5 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    Well we all have opinions. So now Capitalism is also Socialism, man they find a new way to use Socialism everyday. LOL
    Like being on a construction site with the f bombs, just use it for everything and it loses value.


    Leveraged with 2X Other Peoples Money to mine, yield 8.29% on the taxable leveraged and 10.03 on total portfolio from a stock cost basis on a pure div basis. No such thing as an unreal "total return". Happy to hold and wait for more divvy increases.


    But then I am not wealthy enough to live well on 3.3%, with lord only knows how much of that is tied to "Total Return" price crap.


    To me it depends on if you are in the market to get "wealthy" or live well on the Income.
    Aug 5 02:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    Yeah be safe- buy rocks-LOL
    Aug 5 02:22 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    Again debt is a tool. Are you really saying corporations take on debt for NO reason? what need an Interest write off? -LOL

    Every dime of my debt is to MAKE money, and I seldom flip for prices. WHY would I kill my Income to have "liquidity" ?


    More likely scenario is the debt starts paying enough yield spread consumption goes up. Has for me. Since ANYONE with a good FICO can do this, and a good FICO means you pay your bills, why exactly would it be bad? or not increase employment? you know the Fed's MANDATE.
    Aug 5 02:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    Lets be clear tech guys, the market/price does whatever the herd panic sends it. Period. has LITTLE to with earnings. it is mostly other price guys trying to outguess each other on price movement.

    Interest rates effect earnings-yes. Is the fed saying anything close to that? hell no. earnings up, divvys up on most my companies so far I will be staying long and selling Puts to the price hounds on my solid earnings/FFO payouts.

    Guess on price all ya want, I don't play that game. My Puts are my DRIP and I love a sale.
    Aug 5 02:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    LFTO-"which is actually still parked in fed reserves, giving the dollar based banking system liquidity to survive the next downturn in asset value. "
    yes and let's be clear it was the lack of Reserves + the huge amount of derivatives, not backed by Reserves that caused the credit crunch, or liquidity lock up extending all the way to the repo Money market.

    So reinflating the reserves BACK to what were the Glass/Steagall regulations from the depression has taken a huge chunk.


    Secondly inflation needs both lots of demand and/or supply constraints. We do not have supply constraints, we have an over capacity of production and labor. people are not willing to "overpay" now for anything. Inflation means people are willing to overpay ( or at least pay more than the last guy)to get something. Who does that now? what biz won't try to grab market share if a competitor raises?
    Aug 5 01:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    Are you seriously saying there are NO facts to back up the recovery????

    "This is what we are seeing in housings , you can't inflate an asset price beyond what incomes can bear to pay." because housing "value" is determined by rents. Rents are the E of P/E of Real Estate. Price does whatever the herd wants, they drive price.


    Once you understand Capitalism and yield spread or Investment debt, you may have a chance to get beyond the silly talk radio crap of "creditism". Nonsense. Credit is a tool. Anybody can get it, few use it wisely. The problem is NOT the tool.
    Aug 5 01:17 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    I am suggesting ignore price crap unless you are a price trader.
    My successful strategy for over thirty years is to NOT be a flipper of assets.

    I DO recommend investing for yield. I started in Real Estate and have NEVER bought a cash flow negative property, believing that price change would save me.
    I would NEVER buy a stock with the ONLY way to make money is if the price goes up- pure Wall St bull.

    Once you identify the yield you want, make sure the payer of the yield can keep on paying, hopefully increasing amounts and ideally enough payers that the income stays good if one screws up, then IGNORE this price crap.


    An unreal gain or loss means NOTHING to the Income that is generated.
    Know and understand that, and maybe you have a chance against the much better informed price betters. Either way, you get the Income you want.

    Life is about cash flow, not wealth. If you can get that, you will beat 90% of the people out there.


    This is a pure political drivel article, unless you believe the economy is in the same place we were in 09. If you do, buy a cave.
    Aug 5 01:04 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    Political drivel.
    The Fed simply DID IT's JOB! Finally.


    They "make" ZERO debt. They do not get elected by idiots watching more sports or listening to talk radio while deciding who to vote for.

    Need to blame someone- look at whatever politician you like, plenty of blame to go around and almost all political crap.


    Ask Mr Stockman how well Europe did when they started with the "austerity" crap.
    Aug 5 12:55 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    LOL- spoken like a credit card loser instead of a seasoned investor who use yield spread, like most biz.

    Credit is a tool. Cuts off your legs when used for consumption, lets you fly when used for yield spread.

    Understand that sentence, or not, America is all about choices.
    Aug 5 12:46 AM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    flipper-thanks interesting read.
    I would not hold my breath waiting for Mr Stockman to get educated why market pricing matters. He seems very wedded to some very antiquated ideas and his belief that the recovery is both not happening and the Fed had nothing to do with it makes me think him much more interested in spreading failed ideas. Facts be damned. Great link though as he sure acts like the then Treasury head.

    Not surprised dnpvd51 threw in the other silly idea of tying money supply to rocks rather than free market pricing of out debt. Oh yeah QE was free market intervention, but still free market pricing mostly.

    What a silly idea- letting markets evaluate the pricing of our debt, with other countries able to balance Capitol Flows and currency rates as a big part of the mix.


    Seems down right Capitalist to me, but I am sure to be called a "Socialist" for pointing that out.


    Why there is some "debt cap" is beyond me, as long as the debt is productive. I prefer my debt to be cash flow positive and fail to see where the "cap" is if the flow is positive, especially for a country that does not die and is the Reserve Currency, and started life by borrowing from the French.

    Your link points out how silly arbitrary rates and debt levels are, thanks again.
    Aug 5 12:40 AM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Will Be Swimming Naked When The Tide Goes Out? [View article]
    Well George, I will-ME.
    Half my taxable portfolio value is in Puts, backed by Margin or "naked"- the rest is in high yield, and taxable is ALREADY leveraged 2/3. Roth and IRA about one and a half of a position size also in Puts, but cash covered, so technically not "naked"- just "exposed"-LOL

    Let's also be VERY clear, I WELCOME a nice pullback and EVERY one of my Puts is priced at a yield point with HEFTY yield spread to my Margin Interest rate, and I have a nice fat credit line with a cheaper 3.4% waiting to back that up. I also believe my companies will still keep paying me- mostly, LOL. According to my calcs if EVERYTHING was Put to me, I could take about an average of 60% div cut (over 50 companies spread through out the economy and world, that if they did that divvy cut, whatever caused it would be the LEAST of our worries) and STILL not have to sell crap.
    I get PAID to wait for price to do it's thing.

    I do NOT believe the world wide or our countries recovery is in much danger. And am Putting (LOL, pun intended) my money and credit where my mouth is. Price pull back????-why I have Puts in the first place!

    I have also done this MANY times on these stupid trader pullbacks.
    Can't wait to do it again, but personally I see this as just a spook to get retail out and reset for another leg up with all the new money that is still sitting on sidelines. Trader games.

    We will see.....Good luck to all the traders buying price spec, no yield crap.
    Aug 4 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Will Be Swimming Naked When The Tide Goes Out? [View article]
    Yep. NO reason to do it!
    Let's be clear folks the INCOME from those assets mostly goes BACK to taxpayers.
    PURE Wall St marketing that price is somehow the driver of all things.
    Yes, MAYBE, the "value" of those assets goes down as rates (hopefully) normalize-the INCOME is LOCKED.

    Like saying someone with a Bond ladder will lose Income with "value". Flat baloney-TRADERS lose "Income". The Fed is NOT a trader at it's core.
    Aug 4 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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