surfgeezer

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  • New Canada pipeline rules to include upstream emissions impact, PM says  [View news story]
    Trans Mountain is SOL. Means anything carrying tar sands is screwed. Kinder should not waste Cap ex on this, let the existing pipe stay as is with just maintenance. To many other low hanging fruit.
    Jan 26, 2016. 11:44 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Increasing Iranian Crude Exports Impact The Crude Tanker Market?  [View article]
    Well I can't disagree, unfortunately. The good news, and I like reading Hellenic news also :), is niche players like KNOP will be ok-assuming the places they work can still compete.

    Not to be a pessimistic doomsayer, but I would add in many ships are now being converted to Nat Gas for both pollution and cost savings. I read each conversion is like taking 16,000 cars off the road.

    In other great news Citi analyst is saying for Emerging energy importing countries ( India ), that you would think have a net benefit from cheaper energy, may see a substantial hit to GDP as the energy exporting countries are withdrawing funds to support the increasing budget deficits. Their funds had provided much of the Capital to drive GDP growth-and ultimately, ironically energy demand in those emerging importers.

    What a tangled web we weave.
    Jan 26, 2016. 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Longer Will This 12.2% Yield Be On Sale?  [View article]
    Thanks hc. It is much easier to see than describe, and does make a difference in how you see things.
    I prefer to use "highest cost", especially in my taxable. I usually buy in "lumps", and if I have one or two lumps that are high I look to sell Calls when stock gets high/yield low, or reverse that with Puts to buy high yields on sale. Basically I can see the various stairsteps to my investment on the spreadsheets fairly well, but DRIPs can be scattered throughout. High cost basically matches my game plan of always driving YOCash working.
    Especially true, as I play the option game for most my long stocks.
    Jan 26, 2016. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Longer Will This 12.2% Yield Be On Sale?  [View article]
    ack-sorry for the confusion. I am just an Income player, meaning getting the highest YOCash deployed/for the risk to Income is my goal.

    I do not look at DRIP shares as an "accounting" cost when it comes to portfolio management- more of an "opportunity" cost- as in I could have used whatever cash is produced to do other things.


    Those things are spend, pay interest, reduce leverage, buy other things to rebalance the portfolio ( with transaction fees). My brokerage keeps track of the GAAP accounting, so I use my cash cost/yield spreadsheet in a different way :) and that was what I was referring to.

    I think a lot of retiree's need to look at things more from a cash flow point of view, rather than a profit/loss if they do not plan on trading much, but of course to each their own :)
    Jan 25, 2016. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Cos. cuts capex plans by $1B; units -3% premarket  [View news story]
    Not just Marcellus, they are a major player for GOM gas coming of rigs- that are still expanding and longer, less production decline plays than onshore wells.
    That said- they are selling stuff also to fund Capex, so it could be a hit to DCF as they lose current cash flow to invest in stuff that may take awhile to pump cash back.
    Just holding for me.
    Jan 25, 2016. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evolution Of Capital Product Partners' Distribution Coverage Ratio  [View article]
    citoc-well they can't use equity at these yields. Equity also last forever, whereas debt is hopefully Amortized faster than depreciation, but constrained by lenders only allowing so much debt/equity. WACC matters, so bottom line IMO is, unless yields come down there will be little DGR for CPLP. Ships supply has a good chance of inching up IMO, since the major building countries ( Korea, China, Japan ) want the employment and have cheap Capital and manufacturing capacity. The wild card IMO is world demand and frankly that guess ( all I am doing ) is very hard for a few years from now, when the CPLP contracts run out.
    Jan 25, 2016. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi, Goldman analysts eye crude oil rebound starting in H2  [View news story]
    understand SA is a one trick pony that DEPENDS on oil/NG revenue. They can not just cut production without having their real Income cut, and they can't make their bills already.
    Iran, Venezuela and many other oil producers are in the same boat.
    It is a race to get revenue so they can keep their head above water on the social unrest, and SA has very cheap lift costs, best Margins at any price that is set.
    SA was not trying to drive shale producers out of biz- they are trying to drive anyone that has higher lift costs out of competition.
    Jan 25, 2016. 01:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: When The Bottom Falls Out  [View article]
    ha, my bad on symbols. I get a news report on all the EV funds and blew it. Your ROC till end of year thesis makes sense, but they usually show both the quarterly and YTD, and as someone above says they are just estimates that frequently change.
    To be clear, I have only been investing in stocks heavily for 6 years, RE Rentals for 30+. It is only after I realized I could use stocks as Income vehicles, and not do the Wall St buy low sell hi model, that I went to stocks. So by no means an expert in stocks. Just a different prism on them.
    Jan 25, 2016. 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Longer Will This 12.2% Yield Be On Sale?  [View article]
    LB- agreed, overall the likelihood of huge defaults affecting a managed fund are small, but I keep several to lessen that.
    "Couple that with the safety of munis and I have to wonder why I even bother with anything else in my taxable account."-well I like even higher Cap Gains, since I usually ( and especially now;) generate some Cap losses with my options. I mean STK or EVO @ 12%, net tax free Cap Gains ain't bad either ;)

    Honestly- yes a few of my Muni's DID reduce their div last year, but it was more from the reduction of the yield spread as the older, higher yielding Bonds get replaced with newer lower yielding and I would add that is precisely why I LIKE LEVERAGE- especially with safe Bond payouts.
    THEIR game is YIELD SPREAD, and as long as the payouts last and are greater than Interest cost it is VERY GOOD !, to be clear many of these were taken for toll bridges and Income streams NOT dependent on local taxation also.


    Yes, leverage cause PRICE volatility- so what- that is FAIRY DUST without a SALE!
    REAL INCOME, from YIELD SPREAD is higher!


    I am NOT a trader- I don't give a shizzle about unreal crap for trading, but it does help my Margin when Muni's go up as stocks go down.:)

    I agree sts66, - unii is red flag with Bond funds, although Pimco's use some tricky stuff to make that even not entirely true. PCK had a detailed report they put out to shareholders that was fascinating. Who knew you could use some of the stuff they use that act like options on Bonds.

    I would add you are also right the yields now are low- again because stocks are low and Bond Funds are up in pricing. But to be clear MY Funds on MY cost are at MUCH better YOC. I think PML @ 7.85% is my best.

    I would argue the BEAUTY of CEF's and high defined payouts is the ability to DRIP and buy shares at no cost and in a non GAAP/ cash flow based way you are in fact adding to your YOC.

    Remarkable to me that people get how beneficial it is for a corp to buyback shares and increase per share NAV, yet refuse to admit that an investor with a high payout CEF that buys shares through a DRIP, to increase both share count and Income claim MUST do the GAAP accounting of cost on each share. BS IMO. Yeah for taxes- but not for figuring how well you are doing on an Income investment whose main intention is to NOT be sold.
    Jan 24, 2016. 08:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evolution Of Capital Product Partners' Distribution Coverage Ratio  [View article]
    No reason, they already are.
    Jan 24, 2016. 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evolution Of Capital Product Partners' Distribution Coverage Ratio  [View article]
    understand that discussion is precisely why you look at how long their contract coverage lasts and I would add with CPL it is about refinery efficiency in different parts of the world..
    They are products out of refineries that different efficiencies and local costs advantages, going to wherever the excess need for products calls- all that being balanced with a supply/demand rate of ships.
    So you have a % in locked long term and a % in day rate on the side, and it is the incremental difference of world demand on just the % ships in day rates and that ship supply.
    Jan 24, 2016. 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: When The Bottom Falls Out  [View article]
    BTY- while poking around ETJ's site at EV, I noticed they also lead EV funds in share buybacks- a VERY good thing when trading at a discount to NAV ;)
    Jan 24, 2016. 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: When The Bottom Falls Out  [View article]
    I like the morningstar layout and how easy it is to see how the 19a types of distrib vary and are shown :) I wonder how they can know more the EV saying last year was Cap gain when EV says the distribs are 8.9% Ordinary Income, 91.1% ROC, so far this year. From news bulletin I get-
    " Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity
    Income Fund (NYSE: EOI)


    Distribution
    Period: December- 2015
    Distribution
    Amount per
    Common Share: $0.0864
    Distribution
    Frequency: Monthly
    Fiscal Year
    End: September
    % of the
    Cumulative
    Cumulative Distributions
    Distributions for the
    Current % of Current for the Fiscal Fiscal
    Source Distribution Distribution Year-to-Date Year-to-Date
    Net Investment
    Income $0.0076 8.80% $0.0230 8.90%
    Net Realized
    Short-Term
    Capital Gains $0.0000 0.00% $0.0000 0.00%
    Net Realized
    Long-Term
    Capital Gains $0.0000 0.00% $0.0000 0.00%
    Return of
    Capital or
    Other Capital
    Source(s) $0.0788 91.20% $0.2362 91.10%
    Total per
    common share $0.0864 100.00% $0.2592 100.00%"

    sign up for 19a notices or go here and get it from the horse's mouth :)
    http://bit.ly/1jsodbX- That will not only be VERY correct, it has some great links explaining stuff. Why I like Eaton V the best overall. They even have the morningstar link.


    Again easiest is go to CEF connect.com, click on "since inception" in the "All" tab and "Distribution tabs for quick compares

    I am Income based Investor. My biggest stock account is my taxable, funded with a loan from previously paid off rental property. Initially 1/3 my savings and 2/3 said loans.

    My goal is not getting richer, paying off the loans does that automatically and i do pay extra on principal.

    My goal, is basically the same as my RE- long term increasing Income to supplement my pensions, and I have been retired since 2000, when i was 45. Again, unlike Wall St, I used an Income/ Cash Flow based retirement model. Like my dad who has also never sold a rental and bases his retirement off cash flow.

    So get what I do is not what Wall St says with "value" as a determinate.

    Having said that, I look at the same site Mike recomends- http://bit.ly/Hyaf5H

    to compare funds I take the newest of the two funds beginning date and look at the real Income on the compared 10k with DRIP on- by taking the DRIP share count and multiplying the current Income per share/ and compare that to NAV difference. That is a step I do on my own, again comparing Incomes/YOC on that 10K being more important than the daily changing NAV based "Total Return".

    It makes a difference, and it is an individual choice.


    I again use a option strategy overall also, that generates taxable losses as a normal part of biz ( credit spreads on Puts mostly but Calls sometimes- called an Iron Butterfly (http://bit.ly/1K5EbsV ) if I did not have a definite Bull Put lean to mine.

    ANYWAY, I like Cap Gains now ( having big Cap losses so far on the Premiums (8:o), so I lean my CEF's toward those Cap Gain Funds ETO, ETV, STK over ROC's like my ETW, ETY. But i also have Muni's for pure tax free, and use high Ordinary NII ( PHT, BWG ) in my IRA's.


    Understand ROC Capital comes back to bite when you sell- sort of, it basically adds in as extra Cap gains by coming off cost basis. Useful if you have Cap losses anyway.
    Jan 24, 2016. 07:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: When The Bottom Falls Out  [View article]
    "Would ETJ reflect the perfect portfolio strategy if you had to put one together right now? I think it would. Who wouldn't want to own the FANG stocks and many of the other top performing stocks over the past few years in case of a snap back rally while still being heavily hedged in put options and sell call options on the S&P 500? That's a "sleep like a baby" portfolio no matter what the market does."

    Why thank you ;). I don't own FANG's- except in CEF's- LOL, but I love the big Income plays paying my leverage ( +60%, but not based on NAV in any way covenant wise ;) and amortization, while punching up the cash flow with options- usually disregarding NAV gain as a goal and concentrating on Income from share growth over per share price growth of NAV.

    What a concept :)

    I was too heavy on the sold Put side of my normal vertical spreads, and not enough Calls going in to this pull back, but still liking the plan with a negative overall cash flow for the last couple of months, Might have to curtail the "management draw"- LOL. At least i can do that easy to myself !

    In construction I used to say- I'd kill the guy that did that- but i don't believe in suicide ;)
    Jan 24, 2016. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: When The Bottom Falls Out  [View article]
    clrodrick- spot on, remember VanFleet you get Income and you can either DRIP or use that Income to buy other stuff over that 30 years and evolve it any way you want without having to sell didly.
    Jan 24, 2016. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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