I just got my master degree in finance from the Maastricht University, Netherlands. I have been trading stocks for 5 years and I particularly appreciate the high-beta, risky stocks. In the end of my studies and for my master thesis, I have developed a model that generates a probability that any SP500 firm will meet or beat the estimates. In addition, I studied the recurrent patterns around the earnings releases and found very interesting results, that can be useful for large investors, for whom the transaction costs are low. You can try my probability-predicting model on my blog. my twitter name is fogg1990.