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  • How Many Lumia Phones Does Nokia Need To Sell?  [View article]
    Nokia is adamant to reduce S&D OPEX from €4 bn of 2012 (realized) to runrate of €3 bn for 4Q 2013. Did you take that to your calculations?
    Jan 25, 2013. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Though Apple (AAPL -0.5%) is known for taking a perfectionist approach to hardware, 99% of the products that pass certain milestones end up being made, says iPod "godfather" Tony Fadell. By contrast, at many electronics conglomerates, "nine times out of ten, or 99 times out of 100, they would kill the project" before completion. This, to Fadell, helped create a unique atmosphere. "When you’re in a culture that has a point of view, and drives to launch everything it does, you know you’re on the hook and you better bring your best game every time." (Jony Ive: I, II[View news story]
    Then now and then Apple produces crap like Mac TV or iPhone5. In case of iPhone5 it is just greediness that failed the product. BOM reduction exacrated beyond reasonable. And now Apple brand is feeling full impact of this stupid move. You can not sell that kind of crap to halve of the world, so sales is well beyond estimated: Apple has had to halve component orders for the product.
    Jan 19, 2013. 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Restructuring That Will Position Nokia For Success, Not Smartphone Sales  [View article]
    Ditto. In my calculations Nokia (Services & Devices) should reduce head count down to 30 000 in order to achieve self-imposed cost savings target for 4Q 2013. That would mean around 8.5k head count reduction from end of 3Q 2012 situation. The decision has also to come quite a fast, if they are going to reach this target before 4Q 2013 starts (and thus maximize OPEX impact).

    This calculation is excluding headcount reduction and possibly accelerated cost savings since 3Q 2012, but most likely Nokia needs to cut further 5k-7k jobs globally during this year. Bare 3Q 2012 OPEX indicated 6.5k reduction need, if Nokia OPEX would reduce by the rule of thumb of 100k€/employee. Which it has not achieved.
    Jan 19, 2013. 04:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Nokia Really Need To Sell 12 Million Lumias To Break Even?  [View article]
    I am really interested to see Nokia 4Q 2012 OPEX run rate as Nokia claims in positive result warning that it has reduced costs. In 3Q 2012 Nokia S&D OPEX run rate was actually EUR 3,6 billion (EUR 915 million *4), but for Nokia 3Q is always the quarter with lowest OPEX and 4Q with highest OPEX. I am talking about both smart phones and mobile phones here. Nokia targets to push S&D divison OPEX run rate down to EUR 3 billion by 4Q 2013.
    Jan 16, 2013. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Needs To Answer These Questions  [View article]
    I would still wait below $500. Around $470. Apple has also increased spending by billions lately.
    Dec 18, 2012. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia's (NOK) Phone Division Is At Risk  [View instapost]
    "I *bet* there *might* be more restructuring charges and outflows in 2013."

    Actually there *will* be more layoffs as Nokia has not yet reached the target OPEX rate for end of 2013 it set to itself. So either Nokia has to change that target or it has to do some more restructuring actions. Last time I calculated from quarterly results, the demand was in around 300M euros of reduction for OPEX run rate, but the target could be also around 500M euros. That is during (by end of) 2013. Miracles happen, so if Lumias sell well, there might not be need to reduce OPEX next year, but these two things do not usually go hand-in-hand in bean counters balance sheets.

    My assumption is, that there will be more layoffs in Nokia and the announcement will happen during 1H 2013 in order to get full impact of those visible in 4Q 2013 results. However, the head count reduction target should be clearly smaller than this year (which was 10k).

    Note, that from already announced Nokia layoffs you will see some financial and headcount impact still in 1Q of 2013.
    Dec 17, 2012. 08:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Aces Up The Sleeve: Nokia Lumia Sold By 13,892 AT&T, T-Mobile And Verizon Locations  [View article]
    ZDNet's Matthew Miller probably owns Apple shares.
    Oct 10, 2012. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment