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ccortazzo

ccortazzo
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  • Ford's June Sales Woes: Small Bump In The Road Or Signs Of Trouble? [View article]
    2015 eps estimates at 1.91, once we get to q4 and start to consider next years earnings it is easily a $19 stock. Europe and China are improving rapidly, while South America will be a drag.


    From a product perspective, Nnew GM and Chrysler pickups came out this year, the new f150 is significantly more advanced technologically, they will have a massive advantage for the whole model life cycle as the others try to secure aluminum contracts and catch up. The only downside is F might be capacity constrained in how many they can sell.

    The only line item on this month's sales for F that concerned me was the Escape -11% as that is still a pretty fresh model, you'd expect the current f150 against newer competition with higher discounts, facing a completely new model in a few months to drop. Fusion is still gaining a lot of additional marketshare in the midsize sedan space, as does the Focus.
    Jul 2 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: This Catalyst Can Push It Over $20 [View article]
    If the $1.91 estimates for 2015 are accurate, it seems like a no brainer for F to hit $19 by q4 this year, and I've been loading up on LEAPS. I don't see a huge multiple expansion in the autos, but if F's earnings grow, there is a lot of room at 10-12x to see profits in the stock over the next 12 months.
    Jun 23 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons To Buy Ford Now [View article]
    The big movement in shares will occur once the European losses have turned the corner. They are losing roughly 50 cents a share in Europe, all else being equal, breaking even in Europe brings them to 1.80 EPS, at a 10x P/E brings them to $18. That doesn't take into account the rapid growth in Asia, and the continually growing SAAR in the US. I don't think Ford will have the same kind of turnaround in Europe as they had in the US, the fleet is much younger because of the multiple rounds of 'cash for clunkers' in Europe, and Europeans are less car dependent.
    Feb 18 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) will announce next month that they will work together to study and develop new automatic transmissions designed to improve fuel economy. By joining forces, the automakers can split the investment costs for the development of gearboxes with 8, 9, and 10 speeds that could be the future of transmissions. [View news story]
    I don't knwo why the stock is getting killed today. The reason Ford didn't have a great month is because Fusion was down 37%, they ran out of 2012's and the 2013's are just starting to get on the lot... Add an extra 6k cars next month to the totals...
    Oct 2 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take A Look At Ford's 'Looks' [View article]
    Ford has always made very attractive cars in Europe, now they are selling cars based off of their European designs globally. Everyone has been raving about the 2013 Fusion, as well as the 2013 Escape, and the Focus is a step up in quality over Civic and Corolla. I'm long on F, I anticipate them to maintain 9-10% margins (historically very high for a mainstream brand) in the US for the next two years during the meaty part of their product refresh cycle as they are nearing max capacity utilization here. If Europe can stop eroding, the stock can easily hit $15 based on a P/E of 10.
    Sep 24 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Avoid Ford [View article]
    Ford is capacity constrained in the USA right now, market share comparisons are tough from last year because none of the japanese players had cars to sell last year...

    The more telling facts about Ford's trajectory are in their retail vs fleet sales in August (retail sales way up, fleet sales down), high mix of trim levels on the cars they do sell, and flat incentives. Ford is selling their cars at a handsome profit, and that is with the old Fusion and Escape in sell down mode.

    I'm concerned about the new Escape recalls affecting a few thousand units, but it is a brand new model, and Toyota and Honda have had massive recalls in the last few years, so I don't think Ford is behind the competition is this regard.

    Ford has a terrible P/E due to the uncertainty in Europe. Europe will take time to adjust capacity and labor contracts, but they are on the right track, they will cut capacity instead of deeply discounting their cars which reduce residual values and brand equity. I'm long Ford, and I think a 10 P/E is logical once we see real improvements from Europe.
    Sep 21 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Ford As European Division Turns Around [View article]
    Ford isn't going to lose 1+B in Europe annually. They need to shut a factory and update their remaning factories with the same flexible equipment that allows them to shift product mix on the fly like in the US. The reason the share loss in EU has been severe is because they aren't fire-selling their products (which destroy residual values for their customers and for their leases). I'm long F, I don't htink it's unreasonable to expect a P/E of 10 once europe stops getting worse, and earnings will rise on the back of strong US sales and product mix. The growth in China is a long term benefit.
    Sep 21 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Top-Down Car Market [View article]
    Sit in and drive a Ford today and tell me it's not better product than Chevy, Chrysler, Toyota, or Honda, and I don't believe it's close. Ford is maxing out production capacity and adding new shifts in the US while customers continue to select higher trim levels of their models. Once they finalize the restructuring in Europe, I think this stock has a lot of room to run. Assuming next year's EPS estimates are accurate, a 10x PE puts it as a $16 stock...
    Sep 18 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford's Gain Traced To An Economic Report [View article]
    Ford stock has been appropriately punished for the problems in Europe, however I believe this is a great time to buy.

    1) Ford's weakness in EU is more than offset by very strong profits in the US and growing volume in Asia.

    2) Ford's new products are all selling very strongly, and the updated Fusion hasn't even gone on sale yet. They are commanding a premium price in the market with few incentives.

    3) The record high age of autos in the US will continue to drive volume for years to come despite a sluggish economy, and people are turning to Ford vehicles due to leadership in technology and fuel economy.

    4) European losses will be a drag of 30-60 cents EPS for 2012 (roughly 1-2B). Once they restructure with the One Ford plan, that will be a giant boost to earnings. Because Ford has a stable base of US earnings, they can continue to invest in new plants in Asia and update their operations in EU. When EU comes out of recession, Ford will have the most up to date product line, and be able to win back the share they lost to the players that are heavily discounting their cars.
    Sep 16 03:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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