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sophos2

sophos2
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  • It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
    pretty good comparison, not like Intel return on investment in the past has not shown to drive good returns. I would prefer see a compagny with a solid historic invest money than amzn which has still to demontrate it can show profits... I think they will but I would bet the 11B from Intel will drive better returns than the last 11B from AMZN (return on investment, not on their stock...)
    Jan 26, 2013. 09:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using AAII Sentiment As A Buy Signal [View article]
    nice i am reading this old post and in the month after your post, the market actually went down 100 points, good sell signal on this one
    Jan 25, 2013. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: The Short Of 2013 [View article]
    1000$ for CRM = 130B market cap

    wont happen soon
    Jan 25, 2013. 07:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Won't Go Above $20 [View article]
    You are telling opinions like these were facts...
    Jan 17, 2013. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Benioff Has Swagger, But What About That Salesforce.com Income Statement? [View article]
    They are just asking for information yet
    Jan 16, 2013. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) has refreshed its cloud infrastructure software lineup. A service pack for Microsoft's System Center management software allows cloud apps/resources within to be centrally managed, and for different IT hardware resources to be simultaneously delivered - VMware is moving in a similar direction. Also, Microsoft's Azure cloud platform has been updated to support new monitoring and hosting services. Microsoft continues to make Azure's support for hybrid clouds a big selling point as it competes with the likes of Amazon and Salesforce. [View news story]
    I dont think this is a game changer for MSFT... But I like MSFT at this price.

    I wonder the impact of this on salesforce (long term), any opinion?
    Jan 15, 2013. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Needs A Higher Share Price To Grow [View article]
    one angry client doesn`t mean anything.

    I am sure they have a good product, otherwise they would not be able to grow as fast...

    The problem is the price of the compagny, at 25B market cap, they are too expensive. And the profitability is way down the road and very risky. Also the competition is intensifying.

    Also their churn rate in the low teen (maybe something like 12 or 13%). it means they have a higher churn on clients that can actually go away. Client have a contract the first year and they won`t leave so the real churn rate should be on client with a right to quit.

    The calcs works like that :

    12.5% / (1/1.35) = 17% attrition rate on clients that can go away.

    This kind of rate seems high for a leader in the field.

    it is very high and means they need to pay a lot to replace them and I am sure they pay a lot of clients to stay with them with many discounts, freebies and other means...

    And I am pretty sure they tried to go on 2-3 years contracts in part to attack an attrition problem.
    Jan 12, 2013. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Natural Gas: The Only Predictable Path Right Now [View article]
    I like CEP, 30M cap at 1.25$ per share with a NAV around 8$.

    they are mainly in nat gaz. low net income but easily cover interest with cash flow.

    recently lost a lot on their hedge.
    Jan 10, 2013. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Natural Gas: The Only Predictable Path Right Now [View article]
    less investment by total = lower supply = better prices?

    So i don't see the link with chk sellof
    Jan 10, 2013. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Managers Are Selling These 7 Illiquid Stocks [View article]
    Could be a different group that buys it. This stock is thin and do not take a large buyer to move it...
    Jan 3, 2013. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: To Invest Or Not? [View article]
    You really are up to something here. You said you bought 600 shares at 160 on Dec 17th,11pm and today you are saying you got 1000 at 160. You have to show me how to get 400 shares 8$ below the lowest price since that date. I could be a billionaire in a few days with this trick. And I really wanna be a long on this one if I can do this trick! I am currently short 400 shares and ready to switch!
    Dec 24, 2012. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: To Invest Or Not? [View article]
    This kind of stock can fall like a rock on Jupiter (many times earth gravity). You are never protected with a stop loss one something like this. Could even drop 20% when the market is closed...
    Dec 21, 2012. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: To Invest Or Not? [View article]
    And the author show a different point than most SA articles on CRM... Always good to see a different opinion even if you disagree with it. And btw Salesforce is a good compagny that is just overspending a bit to grow... Also investors are paying too much for it but still a good compagny.

    I am short big time on it.
    Dec 21, 2012. 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Party Like It's 1999 - Update [View article]
    Attrition happens after the contract period so there is no churn the first year... So their attrition in the low teens is more like low teens divided by 1 less growth. maybe something like 13%/ (1-35%) = 20%. I do not even account for the fact that their contract lenght increased to 2 years for many clients... When they stop growing that fast they will face a huge attrition problem.
    Dec 19, 2012. 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Party Like It's 1999 - Update [View article]
    And you think Warren Buffet have stop losses?
    Dec 19, 2012. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
149 Comments
109 Likes